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Languish Here I Stand (9?) Thread

Started by ulmont, April 09, 2009, 01:14:03 PM

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ulmont

#240
April 18, 2009, 08:05:58 AM Last Edit: April 18, 2009, 08:09:37 AM by ulmont
Quote from: Delirium on April 18, 2009, 01:26:57 AM
Okay, I need some opinions. I made no secret of the fact that I held the Shcamalalkalsd leage last turn and it was one of the two cards I saved. However, as was pointed out, it is a Mandatory Event and cannot be held. On the other hand, it says it must be played for the event, which cannot happen turn 1, so I thought it was excepted.

What normally happens if the League is drawn on turn 2 or 3 but the Protestants have less than 12 spaces...it seems like it should be the same result here?

...from looking at the text of the League card, it appears that if it is drawn on turn 2 or 3 but the Protestants have less than 12 spaces, it will fire as a mandatory event but will have no effect.

In that case, I think you should roll to see if you keep it (drew it on turn 2) and discard if you don't succeed.  Figure out roughly what the odds of anybody drawing the League were this turn and use that.

ulmont

#241
April 18, 2009, 11:47:50 AM
Quote from: Ulmont, at ConsimworldEd: So presumably if drawn turn 1, it plays like if drawn on turns 2-3 with the Protestants converting 11 or less provinces, i.e., must be played, gives only 2 CP, and then is reshuffled?

Quote from: Ed Beach, at ConsimworldCorrect.

ulmont

#242
April 18, 2009, 01:50:18 PM
I calculate the odds of somebody drawing the League this turn as approximately 45%.  There were 27 draws and there were only 60 cards left in the deck, I believe.  Others can feel free to correct my math.

So Del, roll a percentile and if you get 45 or less keep the card, else discard it and draw another, IMO.

Delirium

#243
April 19, 2009, 05:22:03 AM Last Edit: April 19, 2009, 05:41:28 AM by Delirium
You return all discards to the deck and re-shuffle before dealing new cards, so it can't be more than 30%. I'll roll and see if there's need for detailed calculation.

Edit: dammit, I rolled 26. Counting up cards now.

Edit: actually, 43 out of 110 cards are not available, either being home cards, turn or event specified. So it's 27 in 67 of someone drawing it this turn, so the 26 means somebody drew it. But we still don't know if I drew it, in all fairness it could have ended up in the Protestant's hand, meaning it wouldn't get played until late in the turn.

Cards drawn this turn:

Ottomans 4
Habsburgs 7
England 4
France 5
Pope 3
Protestants 4

Assigning a percentage chance to each of the six powers, in this order, I'll roll a d100.

The roll of 60 means France drew the card. Again, if we want to be strict about this, France should discard a card randomly, get Schlamlalam league from me and then I draw another card.

Or we could assume France would play the card early and just go on with me having the card in my hand. I "lose" 2 cp last turn for not playing it, and I'm "forced" to use one action for the play of the card this round even though it's not "in my hand". Probably sufficient penalty for me, but the card still gets played this turn.

Other opinions?
Come writers and critics who prophesize with your pen, and keep your eyes wide the chance won't come again; but don't speak too soon for the wheel's still in spin, and there's no telling who that it's naming. For the loser now will be later to win, cause the times they are a-changin'. -- B Dylan

Delirium

#244
April 19, 2009, 05:43:47 AM
And I guess I'm done with diplomacy. After we solve the SL question, I'm for moving on.
Come writers and critics who prophesize with your pen, and keep your eyes wide the chance won't come again; but don't speak too soon for the wheel's still in spin, and there's no telling who that it's naming. For the loser now will be later to win, cause the times they are a-changin'. -- B Dylan

Tamas

#245
April 19, 2009, 07:06:32 AM
Quote from: Delirium on April 19, 2009, 05:43:47 AM
And I guess I'm done with diplomacy. After we solve the SL question, I'm for moving on.

I am still waiting answers from England and Ottomans, but I hereby offer a white peace for Habsburgs.

ulmont

#246
April 19, 2009, 07:17:54 AM Last Edit: April 19, 2009, 07:19:56 AM by ulmont
Quote from: Delirium on April 19, 2009, 05:22:03 AM
You return all discards to the deck and re-shuffle before dealing new cards, so it can't be more than 30%. I'll roll and see if there's need for detailed calculation.

Yes, it can.  There were only 60 cards available...the 67 you identified, less the 4 in people's hands, less 3 events already played and removed from the deck.

The first draw has a 59 / 60 chance of *not* being the league, the second draw (if the first is not the league) has a 58 / 59 chance of *not* being the league, the third has a 57 / 58 chance, and so forth, so the final chances of no one drawing the league are:

59 * 58 * ... * 34 * 33 / 60 * 59 * ... * 35 * 34, or about 45%.

But this is irrelevant.  The League can stay in your hand, let's move on.

Delirium

#247
April 19, 2009, 07:47:30 AM
I felt my second edit made it clear I was wrong about the percentage in the original post, so you didn't really have to do the numbers. ;)

But as you said, it's irrelevant.
Come writers and critics who prophesize with your pen, and keep your eyes wide the chance won't come again; but don't speak too soon for the wheel's still in spin, and there's no telling who that it's naming. For the loser now will be later to win, cause the times they are a-changin'. -- B Dylan

Delirium

#248
April 19, 2009, 07:52:41 AM
Quote from: Tamas on April 19, 2009, 07:06:32 AMI am still waiting answers from England and Ottomans, but I hereby offer a white peace for Habsburgs.

I believe we declare our offers formally in initiative order, so we'll have to wait a day or two. You can assume I will make the same offer though.
Come writers and critics who prophesize with your pen, and keep your eyes wide the chance won't come again; but don't speak too soon for the wheel's still in spin, and there's no telling who that it's naming. For the loser now will be later to win, cause the times they are a-changin'. -- B Dylan

ehrie

#249
April 19, 2009, 06:46:53 PM
So I see I still can't reply to PMs. Sigh. I will have no diplo to announce this turn, with the exceptino of granting the Pope 3 Mercs as promised.

Habbaku

#250
April 19, 2009, 06:56:56 PM
Ottomans have no diplomacy.

Ottomans also have no new DoWs.

Ottoman spring deployment :

Suleiman, 3 regulars and 1 cavalry spring deploy to Belgrade.
The medievals were only too right in taking nolo episcopari as the best reason a man could give to others for making him a bishop. Give me a king whose chief interest in life is stamps, railways, or race-horses; and who has the power to sack his Vizier (or whatever you care to call him) if he does not like the cut of his trousers.

Government is an abstract noun meaning the art and process of governing and it should be an offence to write it with a capital G or so as to refer to people.
-J. R. R. Tolkien

Delirium

#251
April 20, 2009, 01:05:35 AM
Our Empire offers France a white peace. We offer an alliance to Pope Berk VII and wish to borrow his fleet. We also give His Holyness a card from our hand.

Spring deployment: Ferdinand, 4+1 to Salzburg.
Come writers and critics who prophesize with your pen, and keep your eyes wide the chance won't come again; but don't speak too soon for the wheel's still in spin, and there's no telling who that it's naming. For the loser now will be later to win, cause the times they are a-changin'. -- B Dylan

Delirium

#252
April 20, 2009, 11:35:48 AM
We seem to be in order of declarations re:diplomacy here, England has nothing to declare, France seems to have gotten their answers from the English and the Ottomans. Does Tamas have anything else, besides the aforementioned white peace?

Oh, and feel free to post your Spring Deployments, folks.
Come writers and critics who prophesize with your pen, and keep your eyes wide the chance won't come again; but don't speak too soon for the wheel's still in spin, and there's no telling who that it's naming. For the loser now will be later to win, cause the times they are a-changin'. -- B Dylan

Berkut

#253
April 20, 2009, 02:12:34 PM
Well, actually I would like to see the DOW phase before my SD.
"If you think this has a happy ending, then you haven't been paying attention."

select * from users where clue > 0
0 rows returned

ehrie

#254
April 20, 2009, 02:22:17 PM
I will have no Spring Deployment as well.
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