Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

[Habbaku]

Off topic, or perhaps not.

Given the likely or already ongoing upending of the world order towards more fragmentation and the current rise of authoritarianism and protectionism, the spectre of the climate catastrophe and the very real possibility of other war(s) in Europe, what is your take on the future of the current financial system? Specifically: how wise would it be to put money into stocks for long term benefits (10 years or so) under these conditions?

I got into an argument with my better half yesterday. She told me she wanted to open an investment account and place some of the money we are putting aside for our 8-year-old into stocks. This struck me as a very bad idea, both for the very short term (due to the Trump insanity and the possible global economic meltdown) and the longer run (given everything mentioned above).

I think your better half is correct. If you are holding money for your 8 year-old (presumably for college expenses?), then it will be at least 10 years until you need the funds for that purpose. 10 years is a long time to recover and arguably most of the damage has been done considering the US market is down by 1/6th from all time high.

Is it possible it could go down even further? Of course. But I think 1/6th is a reasonable decline and that, 10 years from now, the US equities market will be in a much better position than it is now.

[Josquius]

If you think civilization will end buy guns, ammo, canned food and water purification tablets.

If you think civilization will not end buy the dip.

The dip? The dip of the dip? The dippity dip?
I fear this isn't yet the dip

[Valmy]

If you think civilization will end buy guns, ammo, canned food and water purification tablets.

If you think civilization will not end buy the dip.

I was always told trying to time the market is a great way to go broke. You disagree?

[crazy canuck]

A lot of people betting this morning that Trump isn't actually going to impose the tariffs.

[Valmy]

A lot of people betting this morning that Trump isn't actually going to impose the tariffs.

Kind of incredible really. I guess they figure if they just wait and see it will be too late to really cash in.

[crazy canuck]

A lot of people betting this morning that Trump isn't actually going to impose the tariffs.

Kind of incredible really. I guess they figure if they just wait and see it will be too late to really cash in.

I think it's just that they don't Ho believe Trump is going to go through with it.

[Valmy]

A lot of people betting this morning that Trump isn't actually going to impose the tariffs.

Kind of incredible really. I guess they figure if they just wait and see it will be too late to really cash in.

I think it's just that they don't Ho believe Trump is going to go through with it.

Well right, but they could just wait for him to actually not go through with it, or be very risky and aggressive and try to get lucky and time it just right. Seems lots of willing to risk everything to try to time it.

[HVC]

A lot of people betting this morning that Trump isn't actually going to impose the tariffs.

Kind of incredible really. I guess they figure if they just wait and see it will be too late to really cash in.

I had read that something like 60% of trading is algorithmic. Explains why the reactions to rumours are so fast.

[Jacob]

Yeah I'm trying to figure out if I should sit tight with my retirement accounts or pull out... is it too late, or is it all going to shit much more?

Great times.

[Valmy]

Yeah I'm trying to figure out if I should sit tight with my retirement accounts or pull out... is it too late, or is it all going to shit much more?

Great times.

I am determined to ride it out. Perhaps famous last words but I am really playing for decades from now and surely Trumpism won't last that long...

Or maybe it will and don't call me Shirley.

But that is just the gamble I am taking. Besides I have already lost so much it would be painful to pull out now.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah I'm trying to figure out if I should sit tight with my retirement accounts or pull out... is it too late, or is it all going to shit much more?

Great times.

Sell now and take the loss.  You are betting that Trump actually has a plan for tariffs to remain in place.  That seems a bad bet simply because it is premised on Trump having a plan.  That is why I think you see so many people betting the threatened tariffs will not be imposed, or for very long.

Everyone saw what happened with Canada and Mexico - lots of bluster.

[crazy canuck]

Just took a quick peek at the markets, and after some optimism this morning, the markets came back down after realization set in that Trump doesn't show signs of backing off.  All those buyers this morning lost out.

[HVC]

Yeah I'm trying to figure out if I should sit tight with my retirement accounts or pull out... is it too late, or is it all going to shit much more?

Great times.

Guess it depends if you intend to buy back in at a lower point. If you don't plan to take advantage of timing I'd stay with what you have. Your retirement funds will bounce back in the 20 plus years it'll take you to retire. I mean if the market collapses entirely then we have bigger issues at hand.

But I urge you to take my uninformed opinion with the knowledge that it is indeed very uninformed

[Jacob]

Guess it depends if you intend to buy back in at a lower point. If you don't plan to take advantage of timing I'd stay with what you have. Your retirement funds will bounce back in the 20 plus years it'll take you to retire. I mean if the market collapses entirely then we have bigger issues at hand.

I hope to retire in less then 20+ years, to be honest. Though I don't know if I'm in a position to, much less with all this bullshit going on.

[Valmy]

Just took a quick peek at the markets, and after some optimism this morning, the markets came back down after realization set in that Trump doesn't show signs of backing off.  All those buyers this morning lost out.

Yeah. Second time a lot of people pushed their chips to the middle of the table and lost out in the last couple days.

Why not just wait until something actually gets announced and then rush to cash in? Sure you might not hit it perfectly but you will make money, instead of just risking everything going for the big score.