Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

[HVC]

Why not just wait until something actually gets announced and then rush to cash in? Sure you might not hit it perfectly but you will make money, instead of just risking everything going for the big score.

You make it sound so antiseptic. Where's the bargaining? Where's the scheming? Where is the greed?
...
If there's no risk, there's no thrill! Your way is just barter. If you wanna win big, you gotta be willing to play the odds. It's like gambling!

[Josquius]

Should I sell everything and buy inverse shares instead?

[Valmy]

Should I sell everything and buy inverse shares instead?

If you could go back in time a couple days, then you should buy shorts on everything.

Now? No idea 

Though it looks like we are going for the 104% tariff on Chinese goods. Just think South Carolina nearly seceded for 45%, and that was a tariff designed to be so high and unacceptable it would surely die in Congress...until it didn't.

I am sure the market is loving this.

[Admiral Yi]

I was always told trying to time the market is a great way to go broke. You disagree?

I think "don't try to time the market" is one of those folk aphorisms that originally was based on analysis and experience and wisdom and got watered down and overgeneralized, much like "correlation doesn't prove causation.'

Momentum traders are doing nothing but timing the market and they seem to not be going broke.

"Buy low and sell high" is another folk aphorism that contradicts "don't time the market."

Pick your folk aphorism, make your bet, and wait for the wheel to stop spinning.

[crazy canuck]

Things are moving fast.  Money is fleeing from the US bond market.

[Gups]

Should I sell everything and buy inverse shares instead?

Probably best not to dabble if you are calling them inverse shares.

[dist]

I think your better half is correct. If you are holding money for your 8 year-old (presumably for college expenses?), then it will be at least 10 years until you need the funds for that purpose. 10 years is a long time to recover and arguably most of the damage has been done considering the US market is down by 1/6th from all time high.

Is it possible it could go down even further? Of course. But I think 1/6th is a reasonable decline and that, 10 years from now, the US equities market will be in a much better position than it is now.

Perhaps she is. My entire thinking is that what we are witnessing is the end of the post Cold War order, and I do not trust what might arise from its ashes if the extreme right takes hold in Europe, the US can't cure Trumpism and China decides to invade Taiwan. I am unsure that the financial system/stock market would really recover from these various shocks and that business could continue as usual.

[Valmy]

Pick your folk aphorism, make your bet, and wait for the wheel to stop spinning.

Well I am waiting for the wheel to stop spinning. That is true. We will see where it lands a few decades from now and see if I lost.

Traditionally that has been a winning strategy but I feel like a seismic shift is happening.

[Admiral Yi]

My effing god I closed my nasdaq short way, way, way too early. Oh well, it's been long established I am not good at this.

Nice play. 

[Sheilbh]

Off topic, or perhaps not.

Given the likely or already ongoing upending of the world order towards more fragmentation and the current rise of authoritarianism and protectionism, the spectre of the climate catastrophe and the very real possibility of other war(s) in Europe, what is your take on the future of the current financial system? Specifically: how wise would it be to put money into stocks for long term benefits (10 years or so) under these conditions?

I got into an argument with my better half yesterday. She told me she wanted to open an investment account and place some of the money we are putting aside for our 8-year-old into stocks. This struck me as a very bad idea, both for the very short term (due to the Trump insanity and the possible global economic meltdown) and the longer run (given everything mentioned above).

No idea on this - I put money into my pension, into a stocks and shares ISA. All basically unit trust stuff. Though this morning was not the time to have a quick check on how the old pension's doing

However on things changing etc - the one I wonder about is whether we'll actually see a return of some form of capital controls at some point? Maybe not but it just feels like there's a few things that could end up there (not least Trump).

[Admiral Yi]

What does "put my money into my pension" mean?

[Sheilbh]

I think 401(k) in America?

[Admiral Yi]

danke

[Valmy]

Our account made 90,000 yesterday.

And here I am working for a living like a sucker.

[Josquius]

I just remortgaged the other month and rates are going down due to this
Luckily kept to at 2 years. Was hoping to get it all paid off but the work situation was not set.