Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

[DGuller]

I wonder to what extent the stock prices reflect the possibility that Trump will reverse course. 

Some of the damage is probably permanent, since it reflects the political uncertainty that won't go away no matter what now, but the rest of the damage is the tariff damage times the probability that tariffs won't be reversed.  If the market is currently pricing in a low probability that the tariffs won't be reversed, then there is a lot more room for stock prices to go down if Trump won't budge and the market starts waking up to that.

One thing is for certain:  it sure is nice to be an options trader who knows what Trump is thinking...

[crazy canuck]

I wonder to what extent the stock prices reflect the possibility that Trump will reverse course. 

Some of the damage is probably permanent, since it reflects the political uncertainty that won't go away no matter what now, but the rest of the damage is the tariff damage times the probability that tariffs won't be reversed.  If the market is currently pricing in a low probability that the tariffs won't be reversed, then there is a lot more room for stock prices to go down if Trump won't budge and the market starts waking up to that.

One thing is for certain:  it sure is nice to be an options trader who knows what Trump is thinking...

Yes, I think the reason the crash has not been worse is the market is hoping Trump is bluffing when he said the tariffs will remain in place.  Nobody could be that ignorant, and so it must be a bluff.

But the problem is a bluff to what end? To get the sort of free trade the US already enjoyed?

Trump and his advisors don't know what they are doing, and how does that get priced in?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

A silver lining to all this market turmoil is that the oil price has gone down significantly, which will help tank the Russian economy even faster than it is already, provided the US keeps it's sanctions on their economy.

Trump will finally get his Nobel Peace prize!

for economy... which isn't a real nobel anyways

[Valmy]

Yes, I think the reason the crash has not been worse is the market is hoping Trump is bluffing when he said the tariffs will remain in place.  Nobody could be that ignorant, and so it must be a bluff.

But the problem is a bluff to what end? To get the sort of free trade the US already enjoyed?

Trump and his advisors don't know what they are doing, and how does that get priced in?

Today a rumor spread that Trump was about to pause the tariffs or something and the market shot back up. That is all it takes, people are so desperate for good news and to see a way out.

[Valmy]

By the way, so glad our elected officials decided that important trade policy was delegated to the whims of one man rather than the Constitutional mechanisms of collective decision making.

[mongers]

I'm confident enough to call it:


We have reach or are just about to hit Peak BS.

Increasing contact with realities will see some BS production evaporate and more noticeably demand will significantly fall.

[crazy canuck]

Fox News is reporting this as the president exerting maximum pressure on countries wishing to renegotiate their trade deals.

It's nonsense, but the silver lining is that there is some hope that the terrorist will come to an end quickly.

[mongers]

[Tonitrus]

The American Tourist story reads like a foot fetish pr0n plot.

[Josquius]

You cannot see attachments on this board.

One of these things is not like the others.

[dist]

Off topic, or perhaps not.

Given the likely or already ongoing upending of the world order towards more fragmentation and the current rise of authoritarianism and protectionism, the spectre of the climate catastrophe and the very real possibility of other war(s) in Europe, what is your take on the future of the current financial system? Specifically: how wise would it be to put money into stocks for long term benefits (10 years or so) under these conditions?

I got into an argument with my better half yesterday. She told me she wanted to open an investment account and place some of the money we are putting aside for our 8-year-old into stocks. This struck me as a very bad idea, both for the very short term (due to the Trump insanity and the possible global economic meltdown) and the longer run (given everything mentioned above).

[Admiral Yi]

If you think civilization will end buy guns, ammo, canned food and water purification tablets.

If you think civilization will not end buy the dip.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Keep an eye on what Warren Buffet is doing 

[Zoupa]

If you think civilization will end buy guns, ammo, canned food and water purification tablets.

If you think civilization will not end buy the dip.

I'd buy gold, nothing else.

[mongers]

If you think civilization will end buy guns, ammo, canned food and water purification tablets.

If you think civilization will not end buy the dip.

Yeah, I was just thinking last night, 'this crisis needs a Ed Anger post'