Stocks and Trading Thread - Channeling your inner Mono

[DGuller]

It didn't? It was on the ground floor for a service in massive demand. I was a big fan back in the day. But now Tesla is going all in on BS like self driving cars and robots and shit nobody really wants that bad. I just wanted well made and reliable electric cars. I don't want some weird ass human looking uncanny valley robot or some bullshit six figure sticker price "truck" that has insufficient power or carrying capacity to actually function as a truck. Shouldn't a business invest in products people actually want or need to buy?

How are self-driving cars BS?  If that technology can be made to work reliably enough, it would be incredibly transformative.  So many imperfect things that we take for granted, like the need for huge parking spaces or spending hundreds of hours of our lives per year holding the steering wheel, would go away, not to mention a huge source of mortality risk for the younger population.

[HVC]

It would be transformative, I just don't know if the company that can't even get panel fitment right in over 20 years is the company to do it

[DGuller]

It would be transformative, I just don't know if the company that can't even get panel fitment right in over 20 years is the company to do it

Sometimes inventing and refining takes very different skillsets.  They may not have figured out the fit and finish part in 20 years, but during that time they figured out how to make the electric drivetrain option mainstream.

[HVC]

It would be transformative, I just don't know if the company that can't even get panel fitment right in over 20 years is the company to do it

Sometimes inventing and refining takes very different skillsets.  They may not have figured out the fit and finish part in 20 years, but during that time they figured out how to make the electric drivetrain option mainstream.

But that's the thing. Tesla (and mostly Musk's) greatest gift and greatest curse is that he can promise something, not deliver it, and his fans will cheer him on. Tesla has been promising a roadster next year for the last 10 years, but fans still cheer on the car that will never be. Tesla promised luxury and provides vehicles with build quality that would even make Yugo QA blush. They promised a truck to rule all trucks and delivered one with the rugged nature and durability of a paper plane, both withstanding rain and water with the same vigor; and with a little effort the paper plane could probably tow more weight. And through all this the usual people cheered them on. Even self driving cars have been promised for years. And it's not just Tesla. Twitter got gutted (perhaps for the best, depending on your view of social media), Tesla solar tiles after years of promises and lacklustre implementation and quality are being discontinued, xAI will probably go nowhere.

Musk announces his ketamine induced hallucinations of future promises and people cheer on, but it goes nowhere. The gift is that his fans believe him and stocks go up, investment comes in. The curse is that his fans don't seem to care if anything materializes anywhere near what's promised. So what's the incentive to actually accomplish your goal? Not doing so nets the same benefits. He's the leafs of CEOs. The fans stick around so it doesn't matter if he wins the cup.

Imagine Dyson promising a vacuum that sucks for a decade plus without producing one ? Would they have the most valuable company in the world? But then again the stock market hasn't made sense for decades. Once the general masses enter a a board game for the rich things got wonky. Be it the stock market, tulip bulbs or land for sale in Central America

[Tonitrus]

It didn't? It was on the ground floor for a service in massive demand. I was a big fan back in the day. But now Tesla is going all in on BS like self driving cars and robots and shit nobody really wants that bad. I just wanted well made and reliable electric cars. I don't want some weird ass human looking uncanny valley robot or some bullshit six figure sticker price "truck" that has insufficient power or carrying capacity to actually function as a truck. Shouldn't a business invest in products people actually want or need to buy?

How are self-driving cars BS?  If that technology can be made to work reliably enough, it would be incredibly transformative.  So many imperfect things that we take for granted, like the need for huge parking spaces or spending hundreds of hours of our lives per year holding the steering wheel, would go away, not to mention a huge source of mortality risk for the younger population.

I am also a bit more optimistic about self-driving cars...but outside taxis (and maybe travel rentals), I think any replacement for common ownership will be a very long-term process and still a fair ways off.

Same for commonly functional robots...at least, once Cherry 2000-like sex robots are viable, that will be hugely transformative and profitable. 

[The Minsky Moment]

My guess is the underlying space business is fine

It is fine. It is stable. But that is all it is. SpaceX is barely profitable.

Maybe I am wrong but I don't see it. What big space breakthrough is going to change that?

S-1 dropped.

Space launch segment is break-even.  The segment dipped into loss in 2025 due to big spending on "Starship", its new super heavy-lift launch vehicle.

Starlink makes a ton of money. $4.4 billion net income in 2025

xAI/Grok is a gigantic financial black hole.  $6.4 billion loss in 2025.

I still have some respect for Elon as corporate impresario, but I don't see how he turns a second tier at best AI model into a moneymaker.

[The Minsky Moment]

If this were a normal company, the AI assets would be spun off ASAP.  They aren't financially viable and there is no logic to pair them to a space services and communications company.

The AI stuff won't be spun off though because this isn't a normal company.  The bug is WAD: Elon stuffed them into SpaceX precisely so he could offset the massive losses.  And the whole point of the IPO is to find some sucker investors to pay for that subsidy.

[Valmy]

My guess is the underlying space business is fine

It is fine. It is stable. But that is all it is. SpaceX is barely profitable.

Maybe I am wrong but I don't see it. What big space breakthrough is going to change that?

S-1 dropped.

Space launch segment is break-even.  The segment dipped into loss in 2025 due to big spending on "Starship", its new super heavy-lift launch vehicle.

Starlink makes a ton of money. $4.4 billion net income in 2025

xAI/Grok is a gigantic financial black hole.  $6.4 billion loss in 2025.

I still have some respect for Elon as corporate impresario, but I don't see how he turns a second tier at best AI model into a moneymaker.

$4.4 billion in income is fine. For a IPO of 1 trillion plus though? That makes no sense.

[The Minsky Moment]

$4.4 billion in income is fine. For a IPO of 1 trillion plus though? That makes no sense.

$4.4 billion for Starlink

For the company as a whole it is -$4.2 billion.

And yes $1 trillion is a high valuation to place on the privilege of participating in multi-billion dollar losses.