Afghanistan News: Obama says NO to everything!

[alfred russel]

Maybe Obama realizes that the whole campaign is pointless, but he has to reconcile that with his campaign strategy of running as a Afghanistan hawk (probably to appear centrist while running as a dove on the more topical issue of Iraq).

He has reconciled his campaign rhetoric a number of times.  I think the difference this time is that his pollsters are telling him any real choice will have real negative political consequences for him.  If he cuts and runs the right will flay him mercilessly and the center could get upset about the consequences of Taliban rule in (at least the Pashtun areas of) Afghanistan.  If he ups the ante the left will blubber and the center will have a limited attention span to wait for positive results.

That wasnt the reconciliation I was talking about--I was referring to the reconciliation between how the military mission in Afghanistan isn't accomplishing anything and doesn't promise to anytime soon, versus his campaign rhetoric of the Afghanistan fight mattering.

[Admiral Yi]

That wasnt the reconciliation I was talking about--I was referring to the reconciliation between how the military mission in Afghanistan isn't accomplishing anything and doesn't promise to anytime soon, versus his campaign rhetoric of the Afghanistan fight mattering.

I thought that was what I was talking about.

[alfred russel]

That wasnt the reconciliation I was talking about--I was referring to the reconciliation between how the military mission in Afghanistan isn't accomplishing anything and doesn't promise to anytime soon, versus his campaign rhetoric of the Afghanistan fight mattering.

I thought that was what I was talking about.

Then I don't understand how he has reconciled it?

[Admiral Yi]

Then I don't understand how he has reconciled it?

Ah.  I meant he has reconciled his campaign rhetoric on other issues a number of times.

[Sheilbh]

His strategy on health care reform has essentially been to push as much of it off onto Congress so that they take the worst of the beating. 

I disagree that was the reasoning.  My read on Obama is that he's basically trying to do everything he can to avoid Clinton's first year.  He is surrounded by Clinton veterans and I think it shows.  Clinton had a torrid transition because he focused on the cabinet not the White House, Obama's transition was initially highly praised for picking a White House team that could work - though he later got into trouble over Commerce Secretary that's nothing compared to Clinton's three goes at Attorney General.  Similarly Clinton made an unwise remark on gays in the military and promptly had Congressional grandstanding such as Sam Nunn touring submarines (even though the White House had explicitly said that gays wouldn't be on subs).  Clinton's healthcare proposals were devised in the White House in a pretty centralised way, that meant that Congressmen and Senators felt they'd had no input and aside from the unhappiness with the policy (which may or may not have been that great) they felt snubbed and sidelined; Obama's healthcare reform involves the White House negotiating with Congress but it's involved Congress right from the start so they can't say 'we weren't consulted; we can't vote for this'.

Politics, like war, is somewhat cursed by fighting the last set of battles.

I don't think the people who were anti-Iraq war people really care about Afghanistan, yet.  I mean opposition is wide but it's got no depth to it.  And I don't think you'll ever seen enraged protests of the size you had about Iraq.  The whole Afghan war, from newspaper editorial page writers to protesters seems to have a more in sorrow than in anger tone about it, which is entirely different from Iraq or Vietnam.

I think the threat of the left on this issue is preposterously over-stated.  I think the threat to the war in Afghanistan (as it were) will come from foreign policy grandees, not the usual suspect. 

[garbon]

Obama's healthcare reform involves the White House negotiating with Congress but it's involved Congress right from the start so they can't say 'we weren't consulted; we can't vote for this'.

Frankly, I don't think he had a choice. Experienced politicians like Pelosi weren't going to sit idly by and let the Obama agenda pass through. Recall what happened when it had been leaked that he wouldn't push for a public option.

At any rate, I wish they'd actually do something that was helpful rather than politics as usual.  I think the perceived futility of the venture is why you get poll results like this:

For the first time this decade, more Americans (50%) say providing healthcare for all is not the government's responsibility than say it is (47%).

Twenty-five percent of Americans say they think they will support the final healthcare bill, 33% say they think they will oppose the bill, and another 39% say their decision depends on some of the decisions that have yet to be made about the bill.

Americans are more negative about the impact of a new healthcare bill on their personal situations than they are about its impact on the nation as a whole. By a 10-point margin, Americans are more likely to say a new bill would make their personal healthcare situations worse (36%), rather than better (26%).

[Sheilbh]

At any rate, I wish they'd actually do something that was helpful rather than politics as usual.  I think the perceived futility of the venture is why you get poll results like this:

I think it's tiredness.  The second health-care passes (and I think it will pass) his approval ratings will go up because he'll talk about other shit and death panels won't be set up in every major city.  By the time it comes in in 2013 people will generally wonder what the fuss was about and in another 5-10 years you'll start again as you try and fix the new system.

[garbon]

I think you are out of touch.

Also, sidenote, the English healthcare system sounds awful.  "Oh yes you have healthcare and yes there is a drug that could help treat your condition but you're going to have to wait until someone else comes off of it because there are only so many slots."

[alfred russel]

I think it's tiredness.  The second health-care passes (and I think it will pass) his approval ratings will go up because he'll talk about other shit and death panels won't be set up in every major city.  By the time it comes in in 2013 people will generally wonder what the fuss was about and in another 5-10 years you'll start again as you try and fix the new system.

I think it will pass too, but I'm not sure people are going to love this. If stories are on the news of unhappy people getting hit with several thousand dollar fines for not having insurance which they claim they can't afford, or insurance premiums spike, or some other negative thing happens, Obama may face a backlash.

[The Brain]

Blacklash?

[Valmy]

Being decisive often means recognizing that you are choosing the lesser of two evils and that deferring that decision for later only makes the outcomes worse.  If he decides to withdraw a year from now the dead soldiers will have died for nothing.  If he decides to increase troops in a year the Taliban will be that much stronger when we engage them.

Being decisive often means recognizing the first shiny choice and taking it and having it blow up in your face.  Then the dead soldiers will by dying to save your reputation after your horribly poorly thought out decisions.

Yes making moronic decisions has an excellent track record at not making bad situations worse.   Besides you act like we have not already been there for eight years.  Why the urgency just for the sake of appearing decisive?  Nonsense I say.  We have been there eight years we can wait for the leadership to make the best decision in service of our mission there.

OMG we must act now or the Taliban has won?  Please.

[Berkut]

OMG we must act now or the Taliban has won?  Please.

An excellent summation and subsequent rebuttal of your opponents argument! Well done, sir!

[Valmy]

An excellent summation and subsequent rebuttal of your opponents argument! Well done, sir!

Yeah well I guess I fail to see why he needs to hurry up and make a decision before he is ready because the Taliban might be that much stronger.   The Taliban has been waxing and waning and waxing again for eight years.  I fail to be convinced by that argument.

[Razgovory]

I don't know.  I would like there to be an actual plan.  I'd feel more comfortable if our leaders had some idea what they wanted to do.

[Valmy]

I don't know.  I would like there to be an actual plan.  I'd feel more comfortable if our leaders had some idea what they wanted to do.

Well my philosophy is we are the United States we shouldn't need to take risks.  Put together your plan deliberately if you need to and execute it professionally.  Don't screw around leaving things to chance.  If he needs some time to put together the winning plan then no problem here, especially in a eight year old war.