Quo Vadis, Democrats?

[Razgovory]

AIPAC is doomed, the tide is against them.  They don't have a Trans person's chance in Palestine.

[Josquius]

As well as rampant inequality being such a problem I also wonder to what extent instagram et al is to blame.
Its not just a case of the poor being poor, its the poor being poor yet they're being told they should have this other far more splendid life.
Yes we've always had that to an extent with the media going right back to the Victorians. But the extent to which it stretches today with the parasocial relationships between famous for being famous online people and their fans...

I also wonder about the issues this has in the global south. Things in many poorer countries are improving significantly yet you still get thousands of them risking life and limb to reach the west and the promise of a better life. I do get the vibe they've been critically missold what they can expect if they reach the west- and again the internet is heavily to blame.

[Valmy]

I think if it was a reasonable expectation that you could afford education, housing, food, healthcare, transportation, support your family and have a bit left over for recreation and savings with only a singular decent full time job people would be fine with the rich and the powerful flexing their lifestyles on instagram.

And lots luxury goods are kind of reasonably priced hilariously. You can get a big flat screen TV for dirt cheap. It is the essentials people actually need that will kill you. Which is the entire problem.

[crazy canuck]

As well as rampant inequality being such a problem I also wonder to what extent instagram et al is to blame.
Its not just a case of the poor being poor, its the poor being poor yet they're being told they should have this other far more splendid life.
Yes we've always had that to an extent with the media going right back to the Victorians. But the extent to which it stretches today with the parasocial relationships between famous for being famous online people and their fans...

I also wonder about the issues this has in the global south. Things in many poorer countries are improving significantly yet you still get thousands of them risking life and limb to reach the west and the promise of a better life. I do get the vibe they've been critically missold what they can expect if they reach the west- and again the internet is heavily to blame.

The problem with the that theory is that it is not new. The middle class measuring rod theory has been around since I think the 70s, but maybe earlier.  The theory that people see things they don't have which are normalized as being things they should have has been a theory for discontent for a very long time.

There's something else going on now.

[Josquius]

As well as rampant inequality being such a problem I also wonder to what extent instagram et al is to blame.
Its not just a case of the poor being poor, its the poor being poor yet they're being told they should have this other far more splendid life.
Yes we've always had that to an extent with the media going right back to the Victorians. But the extent to which it stretches today with the parasocial relationships between famous for being famous online people and their fans...

I also wonder about the issues this has in the global south. Things in many poorer countries are improving significantly yet you still get thousands of them risking life and limb to reach the west and the promise of a better life. I do get the vibe they've been critically missold what they can expect if they reach the west- and again the internet is heavily to blame.

The problem with the that theory is that it is not new. The middle class measuring rod theory has been around since I think the 70s, but maybe earlier.  The theory that people see things they don't have which are normalized as being things they should have has been a theory for discontent for a very long time.

There's something else going on now.

Sure, as I say though I do think this has been ramped up to insane levels these days with social media.
Its not just a character in a TV drama with nice things. Its this guy who looks a lot like your peer group speaking straight to you in a familiar way and who got there just from playing video games (or whatever it might be).

Gilded age then yeah you saw the rich and powerful parading in front of you in their fancy coach, dressed up in clothes that cost more than you earn in a decade, swanning into fancy parties with all these celebrities.... but what goes on behind the gates of their mansion is a mystery to you. You have to fill in the blanks.
Now its being shoved in your face.

I do think this is a key part of the intersectionality of the problems in modern society.

[crazy canuck]

My disagreement is that it's not just that people perceive things to be worse. As Valmy pointed out, things are definitely worse.

And there are real economic reasons why things are getting worse for most people.  This isn't an economic cycle or a blip.  This is the rational conclusion of decades of political decisions.

[Josquius]

Both things can be true.

[crazy canuck]

Not really. The middle class measuring rod theory is about perceptions which may or may not be accurate.

This isn't about perceptions that may not be accurate.  That's the right wing stick that DGuller accepts

[Josquius]

This makes no sense.
Perceptions that may or may not be accurate covers everything.
In this case it's may.

[crazy canuck]

All right, I give up. It's both true that social media is the cause of people being upset and it's also true that social media has nothing to do with it and it people are upset because their lives are actually demonstrably worse even if they didn't see it on social media

[Razgovory]

The problem is that the radicalization isn't coming poor.  The DSA stalwarts aren't working class or poor.  They are mostly from the Middle Class or really upper-Middle Class.  And this is true for a lot of MAGA (though MAGA probably has more working class people in it, both as a percentage and in absolute terms.)  What these people do have in common is a fear of downward mobility.  For all the talk of solidarity about the working class, the these people don't want actually be the people waiting tables for minimum wage.

[crazy canuck]

A couple of economists from UBC, wrote an opinion piece from the global mail today addressing why Canadians were more satisfied with their economic circumstances than Americans. The result is shocking since the American economy has been more productive over the last 10 years, by about 15%, but as they point out, the wage growth for Americans is far less than the wage growth for Canadians. With one exception.  The top 10% of American take home wages has dramatically increased in large part due to tax cuts.

So when Americans are wondering why they're such great to satisfaction, it really is about the structural of inequalities of their system.


Here is a brief synopsis of the difference in take home wages between our countries for the bottom 90%.

But even more striking to us is that wage growth in Canada has been superior to that in the U.S. across most of the distribution. This is particularly the case in the lower deciles. The wage growth in the lowest decile has been more than twice as high in Canada than in the U.S., and substantially higher than the growth in the middle of the Canadian distribution.

[HVC]

The problem is that the radicalization isn't coming poor.  The DSA stalwarts aren't working class or poor.  They are mostly from the Middle Class or really upper-Middle Class.  And this is true for a lot of MAGA (though MAGA probably has more working class people in it, both as a percentage and in absolute terms.)  What these people do have in common is a fear of downward mobility.  For all the talk of solidarity about the working class, the these people don't want actually be the people waiting tables for minimum wage.

The truly poor are too busy working. Its always been the case. The middle and upper class mobilesize the lower classes for their means. Doesn't mean the lower class isn't angry too.

[frunk]

I'd also ask, is there someone who's aspiration for themselves or their family is to be waiting tables for minimum wage?  I would think that everybody hopes to achieve more than that, and if they don't have that desire our system is even more broken then I thought.

[Jacob]

I'd also ask, is there someone who's aspiration for themselves or their family is to be waiting tables for minimum wage?  I would think that everybody hopes to achieve more than that, and if they don't have that desire our system is even more broken then I thought.

I think that for many people living a relatively comfortable life, with a reasonable amount of respect and stability is considered a reasonable aspiration.

If waiting tables provides that, then I expect there are some for whom that's the aspiration. Similarly, if the minimum wage provides that, then it's potentially enough.

In a society where waiting tables is seen as demeaning and the minimum make is only enough for poverty, I'd expect most people to aspire for more. IMO it's an issue of respect and the distribution of resources within a society, not an issue of people's lack of drive.