2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Barrister]

Biden's polling vs Trump for this cycle has shown him up previously, too, if you go back into 2023. The reality remains, whether positive or negative for Biden, polling has not been found to be strongly predictive this far away from the election.

I was listening to a podcast the other day - with respect I think a lot of people are still shook by 2016.  Polling is pretty accurate.  In 2016 Trump managed to pull an inside straight to win the election despite losing the popular vote - of which the polls were pretty accurate.

People should be incredibly concerned that, unlike both 2016 and 2020, Trump is leading the opinion polls in March of an election year.

Obviously lots of time to go, nothing is etched in stone, but those polls are meaningful.

[Valmy]

Every election is incredibly concerning.

[Razgovory]

I wasn't concerned in 2008 and 2012.  I actually liked McCain and Romney wasn't some kind of monster.

[Valmy]

I wasn't concerned in 2008 and 2012.  I actually liked McCain and Romney wasn't some kind of monster.

2010 was a disaster we have never completely recovered from though.

But I meant every election since 2015. Every one, even the mid-terms, is a close high stakes battle.

[CountDeMoney]

You fuckers need to stop all your esoteric navelgazing and come to the realization that this ignorant knuckledragging mouthbreather from Queens is never going to see a single verdict of consequence in any criminal court, and it is all going away forever once he becomes Chief Bwana for Life.




 

[Razgovory]

That is a very likely outcome.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Biden's polling vs Trump for this cycle has shown him up previously, too, if you go back into 2023. The reality remains, whether positive or negative for Biden, polling has not been found to be strongly predictive this far away from the election.

I was listening to a podcast the other day - with respect I think a lot of people are still shook by 2016.  Polling is pretty accurate.  In 2016 Trump managed to pull an inside straight to win the election despite losing the popular vote - of which the polls were pretty accurate.

People should be incredibly concerned that, unlike both 2016 and 2020, Trump is leading the opinion polls in March of an election year.

Obviously lots of time to go, nothing is etched in stone, but those polls are meaningful.

I never said polling wasn't accurate--I said it isn't predictive this far out. Every bit of analysis, commentary, study etc I have ever seen saying polling is accurate (and that it has been decently accurate in several recent cycles) are all concerned with polling in the final weeks of an election, not polling 8 months out. They are not the same thing.

There was a common belief 75 years ago that people's opinions get set very early in a campaign and don't change. This is why Truman was considered "cooked" and a lot of the higher quality pollsters quit running regular polls in the 1948 election. It ends up they were wrong, that sentiment changes up until election day--and a lot of Truman voters broke for him in the final month.

In 2016 there was a clear polling break of a few points away from HRC to Trump in the final weeks, which was almost certainly decisive. It is also why polling in March of 2016 was not very predictive, it has no way to know that there will be a significant shift in the final 14 days of the campaign.

[Josquius]

I wonder if this Biden would work. Trump has been nuts even for him of late. Giving a speech about how Biden beat Obama in an election.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/17/biden-jokes-about-trumps-mental-illness-at-traditional-washington-dinner

"One candidate is too old and mentally unfit to be president. The other one is me,"

[jimmy olsen]

You fuckers need to stop all your esoteric navelgazing and come to the realization that this ignorant knuckledragging mouthbreather from Queens is never going to see a single verdict of consequence in any criminal court, and it is all going away forever once he becomes Chief Bwana for Life
 

He can't post a bond for the fraud appeal, so he's about to have a real bad time.

[The Minsky Moment]

Institutions may fail, the criminal justice system may disappoint, but you can always count on plaintiff's lawyers to exact their pound of flesh.

[Josquius]

I've heard of some signs not being good for trump. Small donations have fell off a cliff due to him and house and senate gop candidates are being made to self fund.

I wonder how much pence not endorsing is having an impact too

[viper37]

It's not related to the election in itself.

But I often heard the joke that the best way to achieve gun control in the US was to give every Black men in the US a gun.

The US Federal court kinda did something like that.  A judge ruled that illegal immigrants could legally possess guns.

Illegal immigrants can possess guns under Second Amendment, federal judge rules



I wonder if it will incite Republicans to move forward with gun control measures now. 

(just kidding).

It's likely to reinforce their paranoia about illegal immigrants storming the US.

[Sheilbh]

Interesting thread from John Burn-Murdoch on possible signs of a re-alignment in voting patterns by race in the US - there's also follow up article by Nate Silver on this in actual elections, particularly in New York and Texas:
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1767198788689465639

I doubt it'll have an impact this election but feels like something Democrats should be thinking about. The thing that's really interesting is that (as in the UK) while I'm not keen on the politics, the possible causes may actually, in a way, be reflective of positive social trends like people mixing more, minority conservatives voting their ideology/beliefs more.

[Admiral Yi]

And less positive ones, like going full retard.

[garbon]

And less positive ones, like going full retard.