2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Barrister]

People often wonder why the Republicans are so difficult to defeat. Their political prowess and ability to get their message out, even among a group they are publicly determined to destroy, is impressive.

On the whole, capital supports the GOP and capital - over time - buys up most social and traditional media. Propaganda works.

This is, IMO, compounded by the fact that both capital and organized foreign actors are putting significant resources into leveraging social media to pursue their various agendas - and those tend to coincide with supporting the GOP.

I'm going to respectfully suggest you are wrong.

You cite "capital" and "social and traditional media".

I mean yes you can point to Fox News, and Elon Musk/Twitter.  A few right-wing billionaires too (Hi Peter Thiel!).  But pretty strongly the billionaire class, and journalists are left to left of centre.  There's a reason college-educated people vote pretty strongly Democrat in the US.  There's a reason there's basically no figures in Hollywood or the music industry who support Trump (except country music and Kanye).

What's been going on is very curious - it's basically an inversion of politics of the last 50-100 years or so.  The "left" is now supported by the educated elites, while increasingly the "right" is supported by the working class.

This also starts to explain why increasing minorities seem to be supporting the "right", even if you can argue it is against their interests.

[Sheilbh]

Those graphs seem to suggest that the Republicans have done better in every subsequent election since 2012 yet in 2012 and 2016 they controlled the House, Senate, and many more state governments than they do today. I feel like there is additional data you are not showing.

The first one is just comparing latest polls to 2020 - though I believe Nate Silver has added on this using actual votes in New York and Texas to show this happening in real election, if that's helpful.

The second one is showing the margin one way or the other along the ideological spectrum from very liberal to very conservative broken down by race. Broadly it shows that it's converging - at different paces - but broadly minorities who identify as conservative have become more likely to vote Republican in every 2016, 2020 and 2022 than in 2012. Obviously there may be other data in 2014 or 2018, it also looks like white liberals have become more solidly Democrat and it doesn't necessarily say anything about relative turn out.

[Valmy]

What's been going on is very curious - it's basically an inversion of politics of the last 50-100 years or so.  The "left" is now supported by the educated elites, while increasingly the "right" is supported by the working class.

The right always had huge support among the working class. The Presidential Elections of 1972 and 1984 didn't happen because we had millions more educated elites back then. The working class supported them then for the same reasons they support them now.

[PJL]

I'd argue the reason why working class people generally are voting more right these days is that they are generally more socially conservative than middle class educated individuals. This pretty much cuts through racial lines too I would argue.

[Valmy]

The first one is just comparing latest polls to 2020 - though I believe Nate Silver has added on this using actual votes in New York and Texas to show this happening in real election, if that's helpful.

Which real election?

[Valmy]

I'd argue the reason why working class people generally are voting more right these days is that they are generally more socially conservative than middle class educated individuals. This pretty much cuts through racial lines too I would argue.

Which was also true in 1972 and 1984. Wake me when the Republicans win 49 of the states and 60% of the votes again.

I feel like you guys are gaslighting me somehow, trying to sell this false narrative that in the past the left enjoyed overwhelming support. This has not been true since the 1960s. The only reason the Democrats were able to even compete in the 1990s was by basically adopting Reaganomics and tough on crime stuff from the Republicans.

Even in 2020, that was hardly some overwhelming victory and even though the polls don't look great it is hardly the giant shift you guys are talking about. And the Republicans were absolutely crushing us from 2010 until 2018 yet somehow they now have more support now despite the Democrats getting pretty good results in 2022? And what happened in 1994? Did everybody but the upper class elites sit that one out?

[Sheilbh]

I mean yes you can point to Fox News, and Elon Musk/Twitter.  A few right-wing billionaires too (Hi Peter Thiel!).  But pretty strongly the billionaire class, and journalists are left to left of centre.  There's a reason college-educated people vote pretty strongly Democrat in the US.  There's a reason there's basically no figures in Hollywood or the music industry who support Trump (except country music and Kanye).

What's been going on is very curious - it's basically an inversion of politics of the last 50-100 years or so.  The "left" is now supported by the educated elites, while increasingly the "right" is supported by the working class.

Again interesting on this from the FT number crunching of ANES data:


I think part of the question is whether it needs disentangling and it's actually fundamentally about education - and I'm not sure. The other, which might reflect that, is that I think there is maybe something to Piketty's analysis that broadly on purely income terms there's still a bit of a split between a merchant right (Wall Street) and a Brahmin left ("professionals", highly educated types probably including their lawyers). Again I think part of that is probably socialisation.

This also starts to explain why increasing minorities seem to be supporting the "right", even if you can argue it is against their interests.

Yes - although I always find "voting against their interests" a bit frustrating because I don't think it's often a charge levied at people like me - or, I imagine many of the people here, who have degrees and solidly middle class jobs but vote for parties that will probably raise our taxes. That is against our material interests and unusual in comparison with a lot of 20th century voting behaviour.

I always feel there's something a little bit "I am nobly voting for causes more important than my own material interests, you are suffering from false consciousness" about it

Which real election?

This was Silver's piece on it:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-are-hemorrhaging-support

Which was also true in 1972 and 1984. Wake me when the Republicans win 49 of the states and 60% of the votes again.

Presidentially. Nixon was, and this shocked me, paranoid and angry about his lack of coat-tails at a Congressional level and Reagan famously had Tip O'Neill as Speaker for basically his entire tenure.

Congressionally the Democrats were absolutely dominant from the New Deal until Newt Gingrich (didn't have a majority all the time, but the vast majority). As I say I think that is also possibly a shift from New Deal/coalition building politics to something a little more parliamentary/ideoligical.

[The Minsky Moment]

I think Viper has the right idea - time to go full bunker mode.

I think Canada can really help out here. It could easily bond Trump's NY judgment.  You'd probably screw us on a few trade issues and stick us with a useless pipeline of filthy Canadian tar sand oil, but otherwise we'd do OK in a Trump puppet presidency Act II with Canadians pulling the strings instead of the FSB.

[Barrister]

I'd argue the reason why working class people generally are voting more right these days is that they are generally more socially conservative than middle class educated individuals. This pretty much cuts through racial lines too I would argue.

Which was also true in 1972 and 1984. Wake me when the Republicans win 49 of the states and 60% of the votes again.

I feel like you guys are gaslighting me somehow, trying to sell this false narrative that in the past the left enjoyed overwhelming support. This has not been true since the 1960s. The only reason the Democrats were able to even compete in the 1990s was by basically adopting Reaganomics and tough on crime stuff from the Republicans.

Even in 2020, that was hardly some overwhelming victory and even though the polls don't look great it is hardly the giant shift you guys are talking about. And the Republicans were absolutely crushing us from 2010 until 2018 yet somehow they now have more support now despite the Democrats getting pretty good results in 2022? And what happened in 1994? Did everybody but the upper class elites sit that one out?

Which is why I mentioned 50-100 years ago.

There was an era of "Rockefeller Republicans" when the true elites were GOP voters.  The realignment I mentioned has been going on for 50+ years.

But still the notion continues to exist in some - that the GOP is the party of the elites, while the Democratic Party is the party of the New Deal-little guy.  But that's been changing for decades, and is largely dead by now.

[The Minsky Moment]

I don't disagree - but it looks like there is less a re-alignment than a de-polarisation on the basis of race.

I don't disagree with the fact, I just think it confirms the Yi retard theory.  If the "race penalty" seems less palpable, it's only because of the hard won institutional gains purchased at great costs over decades, gains which are under assault and eroding.

[Valmy]

Which real election?

This was Silver's piece on it:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/democrats-are-hemorrhaging-support

Ah yes. I remember that stuff from the 2020 election. Yet somehow the Democrats had their best results in Texas since 1976 despite this big shift. Which, needless to say, I found odd if this was indeed happening.

I mean if it happens, it happens. But we'll see. In any case if it is because the Democrats are pro-abortion rights and LGBTQ well there is nothing much that can be done. The Democrats cannot abandon women and LGBTQ.

I was hoping Biden's more protectionist and pro-Union policies would help with the workers but maybe not.

Presidentially. Nixon was, and this shocked me, paranoid and angry about his lack of coat-tails at a Congressional level and Reagan famously had Tip O'Neill as Speaker for basically his entire tenure.

Congressionally the Democrats were absolutely dominant from the New Deal until Newt Gingrich (didn't have a majority all the time, but the vast majority). As I say I think that is also possibly a shift from New Deal/coalition building politics to something a little more parliamentary/ideoligical.

Yes. Back in those days the Democrats had a powerful right wing. The Republicans even had a left wing through the 1970s. So just voting Democratic didn't mean "left" or voting Republican didn't mean "right"...but boy it sure did in the 1972 and 1984 Presidential elections.

[crazy canuck]

Most of you are missing the reason why non college educated people are voting for the far right.  The left does not give them any hope for the future.

[Valmy]

I'd argue the reason why working class people generally are voting more right these days is that they are generally more socially conservative than middle class educated individuals. This pretty much cuts through racial lines too I would argue.

Which was also true in 1972 and 1984. Wake me when the Republicans win 49 of the states and 60% of the votes again.

I feel like you guys are gaslighting me somehow, trying to sell this false narrative that in the past the left enjoyed overwhelming support. This has not been true since the 1960s. The only reason the Democrats were able to even compete in the 1990s was by basically adopting Reaganomics and tough on crime stuff from the Republicans.

Even in 2020, that was hardly some overwhelming victory and even though the polls don't look great it is hardly the giant shift you guys are talking about. And the Republicans were absolutely crushing us from 2010 until 2018 yet somehow they now have more support now despite the Democrats getting pretty good results in 2022? And what happened in 1994? Did everybody but the upper class elites sit that one out?

Which is why I mentioned 50-100 years ago.

There was an era of "Rockefeller Republicans" when the true elites were GOP voters.  The realignment I mentioned has been going on for 50+ years.

But still the notion continues to exist in some - that the GOP is the party of the elites, while the Democratic Party is the party of the New Deal-little guy.  But that's been changing for decades, and is largely dead by now.

Ok well how come the Democrats do so well in this new re-alignment? Surely a shift that is just most of the people shifting rightwards would have buried us completely.

And again sure the Democrats did better in congress when they had lots of far right southern members to soak up rightwing votes. But the idea that the GOP is the party of the elites when 60% voted for Nixon in 1972 seems...suspect.

[Valmy]

Most of you are missing the reason why non college educated people are voting for the far right.  The left does not give them any hope for the future.

Maybe. But I don't know what that means exactly. I have certainly never faulted the right from not having strong political skills and messaging, but that doesn't necessarily mean the left gives nothing at all or is failing. It just means the opposition is really good and requires tremendous effort to be successful.

But far right talking points are almost entirely panic mongering and rage inducing. I am not sure a message of hope for a bright future is going to resonate against that.

[Tamas]

It works to. I have heard more than once how we white men are the most oppressed group in America. Amazing.

I mean, "oppressed" is just ludicrous but their cultural dominance has been shaken (practical dominance less so, so far, to put it mildly). They don't have the right to complain about that either but a "fall from grace" impression is to this degree understandable. You grow up thinking it's ok to ass-grab the women at work and to be blatantly racist and then "suddenly" these have become un-cool.