Refractory Gauls, or the French politics thread

[Sheilbh]

Triangular races benefit RN, I assume?

I'm not sure - that'd be my guess, but no idea. (Reason for my guess: from polls think there'd be few seats where LR could push EM to win, and I suspect that vote will split anyway/see the Popular Front as a bigger enemy/threat).

[Sheilbh]

According to Ipsos exit poll:

🇨🇵🗳� Et dans le détail :

🔴⚫🟠 Triangulaires NFP / RN et Allies et / Ensemble : 230 à 260

🔴🔵⚫ Triangulaires NFP / LR-DVD / RN et alliés : 30 à 40

🔴⚫ Duel NFP / RN et alliés : 45 à 65

🟠⚫ Duel Ensemble / RN et alliés : 25 à 35

Striking that RN across the board with enough votes to qualify. Melenchon calling for NPF to basically stand down if they're behind LREM v the RN to stop the far right - but that's very few seats. Macron also calling for a Republican Front but unclear if that means uniting behind an NPF candidate (1's that's far far more seats).

On the one hand this may be Macron's legacy - polarising French politics around not the RN v him and the centre but the RN v a popular front including the Communists and Melenchon. On the other what a dramatic end for Macron's arc but ushering in a liberal/centrist alliance with the broad left

(I should point out that in the previous RN v NUPES elections, the RN did better than elsewhere - and all those respectable centrist voters went somewhere...)

Edit: NPF standing down all third place candidates: "not one seat" for the far right.

[Duque de Bragança]

No figures about quadrangular/tetra races? 

[Sheilbh]

Haven't seen a breakdown of Ipsos (this is from their research director) on that but they're saying 285-315 triangulars, 150-170 duels - so less important.

[Razgovory]

What kind of crazy voting does France have?  Triangles?  Duels?

[Valmy]

What kind of crazy voting does France have?  Triangles?  Duels?

Those aren't official terms. They have a second round with runoffs if nobody gets 50%. Just like we do.

But:
1. They have a lot more parties so a lot more runoffs.
2. If you get 12.5% or higher you get into the runoff so you can have three-way runoffs, a triangle.

[DGuller]

Seems like the point of having runoffs is lost in this setup.  Why not just have instant runoff?

[Valmy]

Seems like the point of having runoffs is lost in this setup.  Why not just have instant runoff?

Yes. Ranked choice voting would seem the obvious solution. But I think the runoff system is constitutional.

[Zanza]

Read an interesting article that speculated about Bardella potentially betraying Le Pen in the future. He set the stage with his alliance with Ciotti and might take over in the run up to the presidential election in 2027.

[Duque de Bragança]

Read an interesting article that speculated about Bardella potentially betraying Le Pen in the future. He set the stage with his alliance with Ciotti and might take over in the run up to the presidential election in 2027.

(Jean-Marie) Le Pen would probably laugh over (Marine) Le Pen's misadventure, if that were to happen. Assuming he would be still alive. With (Marion-Maréchal) Le Pen having some schadenfreude, at best.

[Sheilbh]

Read an interesting article that speculated about Bardella potentially betraying Le Pen in the future. He set the stage with his alliance with Ciotti and might take over in the run up to the presidential election in 2027.

I know he's a young man in a hurry but that seems too soon - he's 28 on the doors of the Matignon. President at 30 is really going for it.

Though perhaps not a stupid idea given what normally happens to French PMs, particularly if Le Pen wins in 2027, which feels like the most likely scenario. Also slightly struck that the RN seem to have slightly more solid succession planning than Macron's force as I'm still not sure who they expect to follow him.

Separately a bit more clarity on the Macron stance to a republican front. Basically if they came third then their voters should back PS or Green candidates as they are within the ambit of Macron's "democratic and republican" forces, but they shouldn't back LFI or Communist candidates even if they're best placed to stop the RN as they're not.

Seems like the point of having runoffs is lost in this setup.  Why not just have instant runoff?

Yeah. My understanding is what's just happened is very unusual and normally it is generally lots of duels across the country and the purpose, generally, is to get a majority for the president. So you're right, but also I don't think this has happened before.

But I think this approach (basically I think you need 12.5% of all possible voters to get to the second round) makes some sense in France. There's probably a question of whether voting system shapes behaviour or vice versa, but France doesn't have (and I don't think ever has had) a stable party system where instant run-off might make more sense.

And part of the reason it has this time is the left from the Communists to the Socialists and Greens formed a new popular front to fight the far right - if the left were split as normal I think we'd probably have a lot more normal run-offs with the left vote split in many areas with many parties under 12.5%.

[HVC]

Looks like France didn't put AC in the olympic village to hit green targets. Instead using blinds, fans, in floor cooling. So now teams are buying and bringing portable units  . They could have used efficient large units, but now each room is going to have less efficient portable units.

[Tamas]

I guess that's humanity's fight against climate change in a nutshell.

[Sheilbh]

I guess that's humanity's fight against climate change in a nutshell.

This has been a bit of an issue here. London planning rules very very strongly discourage AC preferring passive cooling. So you've got new flats that are far better insulated, no AC and sometimes windows don't open.

Saw residents in a development in Whitechapel putting up huge signs in their windows on an open day saying "DON'T BUY! TOO HOT".

[HVC]

I guess that's humanity's fight against climate change in a nutshell.

This has been a bit of an issue here. London planning rules very very strongly discourage AC preferring passive cooling. So you've got new flats that are far better insulated, no AC and sometimes windows don't open.

Saw residents in a development in Whitechapel putting up huge signs in their windows on an open day saying "DON'T BUY! TOO HOT".

The funny thing is that extra (or any in the case of Europe ) make AC much more efficient. So they've gone halfway there.