German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?

[Valmy]

When he learned you are a fanatical supporter of the NDP you mean?

Anyway I take it this means the FDP want to see if they can convince the Greens to partner with the CDU? I seem to recall they didn't want a SPD coalition.

[Syt]

I wonder if the Greens are wary about a coalition with the CDU. In Austria, the Greens have not been looking good in coalition with the ÖVP (kind of the Austrian CDU equivalent), frequently giving in during crisis moments and abandoning old positions to preserve the coalition, despite the outcry from their supporters.

[Solmyr]

In Finland, the Greens have not been looking good in coalition with the social democrats either.

[Syt]

Btw, looking at the program of the Communists in Graz ... their points wouldn't look too out of place with German Social Democrats in the 1970s (though they would definitely have been on the left wing within the party).

[Richard Hakluyt]

Some nice maps of the election results in this Guardian piece :

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/sep/26/german-election-results-exit-poll-and-possible-coalitions

Noteworthy increase of the SPD vote in the former DDR; also Green strength in the north of the former West Germany.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Oh, and the CDU/CSU has done really badly; shows how highly Merkel must have been rated by many conservative voters.

[Syt]

Some nice maps of the election results in this Guardian piece :

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2021/sep/26/german-election-results-exit-poll-and-possible-coalitions

Noteworthy increase of the SPD vote in the former DDR; also Green strength in the north of the former West Germany.

Interesting to note that the Greens are mainly strong in the cities, and in university towns like Heidelberg and Tübingen.

I guess there were tactical voters in the East, instead of splitting the vote Linke/SPD they voted SPD to try put them in front. IIRC Linke tends to get more direct votes than party list votes, but they don't seem to this time.

As mentioned, controversial CDU member Maaßen failed to books his ticket, but I wonder if he had won if he had started for the AfD (which would fit him much better, in terms of content and positions).

[Syt]

[Syt]

Oh, and the CDU/CSU has done really badly; shows how highly Merkel must have been rated by many conservative voters.

I think out of the three options, Laschet was - in hindsight - the weakest. I was actually glad he took over the party instead of Merz (basically a classic neo-con) or Söder (who has hints of populism).

I think Merz would have fared better than Laschet, and Söder better than either of them.

[Syt]

Based on this latest by the Bundeswahlleiter, CDU/CSU and SPD have the same amount of seats at the moment, 206:

https://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/bundestagswahlen/2021/ergebnisse/bund-99.html#sitze2

EDIT: Can't count. SPD 206, CDU/CSU 196

Derp.

[The Larch]

Apparently Angela Merkel's own seat, which she had held since 1990, was won by the SPD this time

[Syt]

Apparently Angela Merkel's own seat, which she had held since 1990, was won by the SPD this time

Where "big name" politicians run sometimes feels to be a matter of convenience. Merkel always ran in Rügen (though to be fair she may have connections to it). Olaf Scholz is from Lower Saxony, but was long active for the Social Democrats in Hamburg where he was also First Mayor from 2011 before joining the federal government. He ran in Potsdam (same as Annalena Bärbock, also originally from Lower Saxony, but she's been running for the Brandenburg Greens since 2013; she and her husband were living in Berlin before moving to Potsdam in 2013).

[Sheilbh]

Anyway I take it this means the FDP want to see if they can convince the Greens to partner with the CDU? I seem to recall they didn't want a SPD coalition.

I think that's what scuppered a Jamaica coalition last time was whether the FDP and Greens could work together. It feels more likely they'd try to go for the SPD than CDU just because, if nothing else, it doesn't feel like Germany wants Laschet as Chancellor (though it is of course possible) and I wonder if the CSU fancy a period in opposition before the Bavarian elections next year.

Oh, and the CDU/CSU has done really badly; shows how highly Merkel must have been rated by many conservative voters.

I think it's wider and more challenging than that for the CDU/CSU.

They lost 1,360,000 votes to the SPD, 900,000 to the Greens and 340,000 to the FDP (but gained 100,000 from AfD and the Left). That doesn't look like a flight of conserative votes so much as almost just a loss of hegemony - I'm not sure what approach they take to recover. There is an argument that perhaps they need to be a little more defined (especially if they're not in a grand coalition again) so move more clearly to the right, but most of their votes went to the "left". But I'm not sure how you rebuild Merkel-style centrist hegemony without actually being in power.

[The Larch]

Apparently Angela Merkel's own seat, which she had held since 1990, was won by the SPD this time

Where "big name" politicians run sometimes feels to be a matter of convenience. Merkel always ran in Rügen (though to be fair she may have connections to it). Olaf Scholz is from Lower Saxony, but was long active for the Social Democrats in Hamburg where he was also First Mayor from 2011 before joining the federal government. He ran in Potsdam (same as Annalena Bärbock, also originally from Lower Saxony, but she's been running for the Brandenburg Greens since 2013; she and her husband were living in Berlin before moving to Potsdam in 2013).

I think the point to be taken is more about how the CSU lost a seat they had held for wide margins for 30+ years

[Syt]

Yeah,but the SPD had a bit of a landslilde win in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state elections yesterday which probably factored into it.