The EU thread

[Sheilbh]

I think probably a bit of that from Lukashenko and this is way of retaliating for European sanctions over the Ryanair flight.

From a Russian perspective as I say my suspicion is they have never yet met concerted European opposition so this is just another line of attack against hostile states that is aimed at undermining the EU and NATO. Probably the same way they are currently it seems already using gas for political ends. I also wonder if he does want to move to absorb Lukashenko and get Europe to not resist by positioning at as chaos on your borders with Lukashenko, or security and stability with Putin (possibly before 2024). But once that's done, obviously, Russia will start pushing again in other areas and with other methods.

[The Larch]

For Lukashenko it seems to be a knee-jerk way to get back at the EU for all the pressure they've started to exert on his regime after his crackdown on the country's opposition. For Putin it is maybe just another way to keep stirring the pot and creating chaos. In general from these two there's also a rhetoric of "this is what you get for supporting the Arab Spring and political opposition in other countries".

[Sheilbh]

And in this case the Russian governments statements are explicitly that this is just Poland/the Baltics reaping what they sowed but participating in the invasion of Iraq.

[garbon]

If it is so obviously manufactured, what's the potential damage to NATO/EU?

[Josquius]

It seems a win all round for Russia. Fucking with Poland whilst boosting support for Russia friendly anti immigrant parties elswhere in Europe.
I do wonder why Belarus is going along with it though if it is all putins doing.

It's a really shitty situation. Hope Poland grows a smudge of humanity and at the least doesnt leave kids to freeze in the forest.

[The Minsky Moment]

I do wonder why the puppet is going along with it though if it is all the puppet master's doing.

FYP and answered the question.

[Josquius]

I do wonder why the puppet is going along with it though if it is all the puppet master's doing.

FYP and answered the question.

Past experience shows Lushenko does hold his own with Putin.
Unless he has recently seen the writing on the wall and this is his retirement plan.

[The Minsky Moment]

Past experience shows Lushenko does hold his own with Putin.

Those days are long gone. 

[Tamas]

Based on past records I'd think Russia/Putin hasn't thought this through past the "will it cause trouble for rivals? Yes!" point

[Sheilbh]

If it is so obviously manufactured, what's the potential damage to NATO/EU?

I think it weakens NATO/EU if despite being a member of those clubs if you are on the Eastern fringe Russia will still meddle with your politics through cyber attacks (the Baltics), through weaponising migrants, through using gas politics. If they keep meeting non-resistance and the value of NATO/EU is basically only if Russia literally invades you (probably), then the easy option would be to just align with Russia more and fall into their "sphere". And at that point obviously the challenge for NATO/EU is what do you do when you have member states who are basically advancing/supporting the agenda of a hostile power - we already have this issue with Hungary.

The other point is that it will probably cause dissension - there's been good statements and support from VDL and France with Poland. There needs to be more from everyone else. I think this goes to the general issue/legacy of Merkel that Berlin's statements on this have been pretty weak. Obviously it's difficult because of the coalition negotiations and status of the sitting caretaker government but while Merkel has spoken to Putin and said the use of migrants in this way is inhumane and unacceptable, she's asked Putin to use his influence with the Belarus regime to stop it. The problem with that I think is that - as has happened with other issues with Russia and China - that's either an incredibly naive or wilfully blind reading of the situation treating Putin as an uninterested party.

It might not be likely especially in Poland and the Baltics but I think that's the threat and what Russia wants/needs isn't necessarily a string of pliable client states like Belarus, but a divided and ineffective European frontier mad up of divided and ineffective border states who can't effectively resist blackmail and leverage applied capriciously.

This is the big gap in European strategic autonomy - for Poland and the Baltics this stuff and gas and the relationship with Russia is existential to them as independent democratic states. I can't see how there can be European strategic autonomy if there's no common view which would involve Western European governments getting behind Poland and the Baltics and treating this as seriously, rather than as a discrete part of the relationship with Russia and wider commercial interests.

[Barrister]

Based on past records I'd think Russia/Putin hasn't thought this through past the "will it cause trouble for rivals? Yes!" point

That seems to be Putin's MO.  There's no grand strategy that I've seen - causing troubles for your perceived enemies is it's own reward.

[Jacob]

Based on past records I'd think Russia/Putin hasn't thought this through past the "will it cause trouble for rivals? Yes!" point

That seems to be Putin's MO.  There's no grand strategy that I've seen - causing troubles for your perceived enemies is it's own reward.

I think both are true, as Sheilbh says. Keeping the EU as disunited and wrong-footed as possible is in Putin's interest because it makes it much harder for the EU to take focused action against Russian interests.

[The Larch]

Apparently Lukashenko has already threatened to cut off gas supplies to the EU if sanctions are levied against Belarus over this crisis.

[Jacob]

The sooner the EU stops relying on gas piped in from the East, the better.

[celedhring]

The sooner the EU stops relying on gas piped in from the East, the better.

Spain relies on gas piped from the South and it has its host of problems, too (Algeria just closed the pipeline that goes through Morocco).