The EU thread

[The Brain]

The Moscow-Washington Axis might make it difficult for former US allies without existing nuclear partners to develop them in peace. Will the US strike say Japanese nuclear sites?

[crazy canuck]

Sad to say, but Canada may decide to build not because of a perceived need to deter the Russians or Chinese but as insurance policy against the USA.

Yes, that is the primary reason we would do it

[PJL]

It is worth remembering that the reason why countries like Canada and Sweden did not go the nuclear route is because of the view at the time that it would be better to severely limit nuclear proliferation.

I don't think that argument is as strong now.

Yes, it's for that reason I am less concerned about Iran going nuclear than I was 6 months ago. It's still a concern but given the current situation, more of a problem for regional powers like Israel and Saudi Arabia than a global concern.

[The Brain]

Plan B for Europe is to align with China, the least insane of the Big Three, and the only one of them that doesn't have explicit territorial ambitions on Nato countries. Hopefully it won't come to this.

[crazy canuck]

It is worth remembering that the reason why countries like Canada and Sweden did not go the nuclear route is because of the view at the time that it would be better to severely limit nuclear proliferation.

I don't think that argument is as strong now.

Yes, it's for that reason I am less concerned about Iran going nuclear than I was 6 months ago. It's still a concern but given the current situation, more of a problem for regional powers like Israel and Saudi Arabia than a global concern.

Yeah, the nightmare scenario of nuclear proliferation has already occurred.  No sense in countries like Canada and Sweden voluntarily making themselves easy pickings at this point.

[The Brain]

Yeah. Thousands of warheads recently came under control of a rogue state set to destroy the world order. The ship has left the station.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah. Thousands of warheads recently came under control of a rogue state set to destroy the world order. The ship has left the station.

That is really the core problem

[Iormlund]

Poland is now publicly debating a nuclear weapons program.  In a world where US security guarantees are withdrawn or lose credibility, it seems likely that programs will at least be considered in Germany, Japan, Sweden, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, the Philippines, for starters.  If Poland and Germany build, I would assume Italy and perhaps Spain will as well to maintain status. 

Spain doesn't need nukes. Our only potential enemy is Morocco and I don't see them going for the Bomb.

The population is markedly dovish, too. A legacy of the dictatorship, I guess.

Finally, we're poor. Spending money on nukes would be wildly unpopular.
Honestly, it is hard enough to believe we will spend money any building up military capabilities, unless said money is effectively free (and after writing this I saw one of our ministers say pretty much that).

[Valmy]

Spain doesn't need nukes. Our only potential enemy is Morocco and I don't see them going for the Bomb.

The population is markedly dovish, too. A legacy of the dictatorship, I guess.

Finally, we're poor. Spending money on nukes would be wildly unpopular.
Honestly, it is hard enough to believe we will spend money any building up military capabilities, unless said money is effectively free (and after writing this I saw one of our ministers say pretty much that).

Hmmmmm...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spain

GDP (nominal)   2025 estimate
• Total $1.828 trillion (14th)
• Per capita $37,362 (31st)

Wikipedia says Spain is the 14th biggest economy in the world 

[Jacob]

Interesting investigative reporting on (at least some of) Russia's methods when waging hybrid war against Europe: https://investigations.news-exchange.ebu.ch/playing-with-fire-are-russias-hybrid-attacks-the-new-european-war/

[Zoupa]

Poland is now publicly debating a nuclear weapons program.  In a world where US security guarantees are withdrawn or lose credibility, it seems likely that programs will at least be considered in Germany, Japan, Sweden, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, the Philippines, for starters.  If Poland and Germany build, I would assume Italy and perhaps Spain will as well to maintain status. 

Spain doesn't need nukes. Our only potential enemy is Morocco and I don't see them going for the Bomb.

The population is markedly dovish, too. A legacy of the dictatorship, I guess.

Finally, we're poor. Spending money on nukes would be wildly unpopular.
Honestly, it is hard enough to believe we will spend money any building up military capabilities, unless said money is effectively free (and after writing this I saw one of our ministers say pretty much that).

I can tell you this mindset is infuriating to all of eastern europe at this moment, and why they hesitate to "dump" the US partnership.

[Admiral Yi]

Front line states need to bitch more.  They've been free riding on the US's bitching.

[Duque de Bragança]

Spain doesn't need nukes. Our only potential enemy is Morocco and I don't see them going for the Bomb.

The population is markedly dovish, too. A legacy of the dictatorship, I guess.

Finally, we're poor. Spending money on nukes would be wildly unpopular.
Honestly, it is hard enough to believe we will spend money any building up military capabilities, unless said money is effectively free (and after writing this I saw one of our ministers say pretty much that).

The Morocco part excepted, most of it applies to Portugal. Morocco is only interested in Ceuta and Melilla and in the long run, having (illegal) immigration making it untenable for Spain would be more efficient.

Speaking of which:

https://www.businessinsider.com/portugal-reconsider-f35-purchase-trump-us-lockheed-martin-ukraine-russia-2025-3

Portugal is reconsidering the purchase of F-35s over changing US relations with Europe.

Portugal is gearing up to spend $6 billion transitioning its air force to the jet.

But its defense minister said Donald Trump's stance toward NATO "must be taken into account."


Portugal says it's uneasy about replacing its older US-made F-16 fighter jets with F-35s over doubts about President Donald Trump's behavior toward the US's allies, as well as future access to maintenance and parts.

On Thursday, Portuguese Defense Minister Nuno Melo told the newspaper Público that "we cannot ignore the geopolitical environment in our choices."

He also said the most recent US posture toward NATO "must make us think about the best options."

Melo, who also leads Portugal's CDS-People's Party, did not entirely rule out buying the planes, but said: "The world has already changed."

If Portugal does reverse course, it would represent the loss of a lucrative contract for Lockheed Martin, the jet's manufacturer, that appeared to have been all but locked in.

Last April, Portugal's air force chief of staff, Gen. João Cartaxo Alves, said pilot training with Lockheed Martin and the US Air Force had already begun ahead of an anticipated $6 billion transition to the F-35.

The F-35 Lightning II is considered one of the world's most advanced fighter jets.

A chill in the air
Melo's statements came amid a distinct chilling of relations between the US and Europe, particularly over military matters.

Trump has sidelined European leaders from recent Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations and has repeatedly criticized Europe's financial contributions to Ukraine's defense.

Melo said Portugal had always seen the US as a reliable ally but recent US changes in stance toward NATO and the rest of the world must be taken into account.

He also raised concerns that the US could place limitations on the maintenance and supply of components for the F-35: "Everything that has to do with ensuring that aircraft will be operational and used in all types of scenarios."

Portugal is facing snap elections after its government lost a vote of confidence this week, throwing further uncertainty over the country's long-term stance toward the jet.

At least 10 European countries have F-35s in their fleets, and Lockheed Martin has industrial partnerships in six European nations. The company has described the F-35 as the "NATO standard fighter of choice."

Norway announced in February that it had taken delivery of three more F-35s, bringing its fleet of the aircraft to 49.

Earlier this week, the Netherlands' defense minister, Ruben Brekelmans, told reporters that F-35 partner countries remained fully committed to the program.

In a statement sent to BI, Lockheed Martin said it "values our strong partnership and history with the Portuguese Air Force and looks forward to continuing that partnership into the future."

It also said questions about foreign military sales of the F-35 were best addressed by the US government.

The White House and the Department of Defense did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Nuno Melo is from the only real conservative party in Portugal, the CDS-PP, so not your run of the mill "euro pinko commie".
Snap elections in May in Portugal, though.

[Iormlund]

Spain doesn't need nukes. Our only potential enemy is Morocco and I don't see them going for the Bomb.

The population is markedly dovish, too. A legacy of the dictatorship, I guess.

Finally, we're poor. Spending money on nukes would be wildly unpopular.
Honestly, it is hard enough to believe we will spend money any building up military capabilities, unless said money is effectively free (and after writing this I saw one of our ministers say pretty much that).

Hmmmmm...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spain

GDP (nominal)   2025 estimate
• Total $1.828 trillion (14th)
• Per capita $37,362 (31st)

Wikipedia says Spain is the 14th biggest economy in the world 

Sure.

At the same time  we've got the highest unemployment rate in the OECD and the average salary is lower in real terms than it was 30 years ago.

[Valmy]

Spain doesn't need nukes. Our only potential enemy is Morocco and I don't see them going for the Bomb.

The population is markedly dovish, too. A legacy of the dictatorship, I guess.

Finally, we're poor. Spending money on nukes would be wildly unpopular.
Honestly, it is hard enough to believe we will spend money any building up military capabilities, unless said money is effectively free (and after writing this I saw one of our ministers say pretty much that).

Hmmmmm...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spain

GDP (nominal)   2025 estimate
• Total $1.828 trillion (14th)
• Per capita $37,362 (31st)

Wikipedia says Spain is the 14th biggest economy in the world 

Sure.

At the same time  we've got the highest unemployment rate in the OECD and the average salary is lower in real terms than it was 30 years ago.

Well what better jobs creation program than the Spanish Corps holding the line on the Dnieper?