US 2020 Presidential Election prediction thread

[Eddie Teach]

Is he the biggest credibility sink of the Trump era?

Maybe it was just McCain's glow reflecting on him but I always thought he was fairly well-respected and seemed like a credible, reasonably independent minded politician. And then the last few years he's just been utterly craven.

ditto

But I see your Graham and raise you Barr.

You must have forgotten the national anthem incident if you think she had credibility to lose. 

[merithyn]

Another widget
https://cookpolitical.com/swingometer?

Interesting.  Only 72% if Hispanics/Latinos support the Dems?  After being called scums&rapists by the GOP?  After seeing their brethren being treated like vermin at the border?  I don't know what it'll take to move the needle there.

My godfather, a first gen Mexican, was one of the worst racists against Mexican immigrants. He refused to speak Spanish except with his mother and mother-in-law, and called all recent Mexican immigrants "wetbacks" with derision and scorn. He wasn't unusual from my experience.

Additionally, enough are single-issue voters (abortion) to make up the difference.

[Barrister]

Cuban-Americans (and though few Venezuelan-Americans) tend to skew more right also.

[Habbaku]

That percentage of Hispanics that support Trump also includes a heap of Cubans, who are a fairly reliable Republican group in Florida, at least.

[celedhring]

A lot of latinos are natural GOP voters. But they keep screwing that with all the bigotry.

[Malthus]

I assume many are hardcore Catholics who are willing to overlook everything because they vote solely on abortion.

Sort of like how hardcore Protestant Christians are willing to overlook how Trump personally embodies the seven deadly sins, because abortion.

[Valmy]

A lot of latinos are natural GOP voters. But they keep screwing that with all the bigotry.

Yeah they are kind of dropping the ball there. Same with many groups of Asian Americans. They used to do much better with both groups.

[The Larch]

Wasn't that part of Bush II's strategy, to make the GOP palatable to latinos?

[Valmy]

Wasn't that part of Bush II's strategy, to make the GOP palatable to latinos?

Yes and in the 90s the GOP regularly won Texas elections by 30+ for that reason.

[alfred russel]

Was thinking about negative factors for Biden (because I just bet on Biden to win ).

There was an analysis that Biden needs to win by 4 in the popular vote to be the favorite in the electoral college (if all you know is the popular vote). Right now, the RCP average is Biden +6.7. So that is less than 3 points, if we believe the analysis. The RCP battleground average is Biden +3.6, which is in line with that.

I'm generally skeptical of just assuming the polls are wrong, but there is a massive change in voting this time: covid-19. I don't think I'm on a limb saying that generally Republicans are taking the virus less seriously than Democrats. How much does this disproportionately suppress Democratic voting?

[jimmy olsen]

Hmm...meant to post that in the other thread, so here's a link to 538 polls

Currently +7.2 with the Dems winning Ohio & N. Carolina
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

[viper37]

Cuban-Americans (and though few Venezuelan-Americans) tend to skew more right also.

sure, I get that. I am right-wing, and lots of people i know on the right support Donald Trump.  They gave their brain to science a little too soon.

But I never voted for the Reform party despite it being much more to the right than the Bloc Québécois.  They hated French and bilinguism, they never shied from it, I did not vote for them as long as they existed.  I waited until some dude started showing respect toward me, then I came onboard.

The racism&self loathing expressed by Meri makes more sense though.

[fromtia]

Admittedly lame of me to muse predictively this close in, I'm hoping for a Biden win and that seems to be the likely outcome. After the conventions I thought it might be Trump for a while. I think it is going to be too close for comfort, which given the nature of Trump is profoundly depressing and scary. Back in June I was sort of hoping that the GOP would be routed and compelled to abandon their current track, the sort of alternate reality proto fascism that they are running on with the help of their conservative media sphere. Now I don't think that's the case. Glassy eyed adoration for Trump, and his sideshow Bob cruelty circus is still what at least 60 million Americans are going to vote for. There's also nothing detectable in a putative Biden presidency, policy wise, to imagine that the process of separating the GOP donors and Strategists from working Americans might begin. So the GOP after Trump may indeed be more Tom Cotton than Mitt Romney. Imagine a Trump who isn't an adderall snorting pants shitter, but effective and disciplined. I think that's the 24, 28 GOP we have to look forward to.

[Valmy]

That is easier said than done. The celebrity and theatrics are such a part of the President's appeal, I don't know if a sober strategic version of that would work. I mean how do you strategically and logically advance authoritarian conspiracies. It might work but that is a hard fence to straddle.

Sort of like saying a Democrat should just be Obama but better...sure that is a good idea but...

[Sheilbh]

That is easier said than done. The celebrity and theatrics are such a part of the President's appeal, I don't know if a sober strategic version of that would work. I mean how do you strategically and logically advance authoritarian conspiracies. It might work but that is a hard fence to straddle.

Sort of like saying a Democrat should just be Obama but better...sure that is a good idea but...

Except we see this all the time - Orban, Modi, Putin, Erdogan, Netanyahu, Salvini etc. The calculating and effective populist authoritarian approach seems more common than Trump's more buffoonish style. Trump is arguably the outlier, the Berlusconi-esque figure of excess who can't resist anything (even if it would be the politically smart thing to do).