US 2020 Presidential Election prediction thread

[Valmy]

I guess. I just don't see Tom Cotton as a charismatic cynical dictator in waiting. We'll see.

None of those guys you mentioned (well except Modi I guess) ever had to weather the 24/7 international 18 month media circus of our elections. It takes a special kind of media personality to do what Donald did. It is not as easy and straightforward as it might appear to simply be Trump without his weaknesses.

[Sheilbh]

I guess. I just don't see Tom Cotton as a charismatic cynical dictator in waiting. We'll see.

I mean of those, I certainly don't think Orban, Putin, Erdogan or Netanyahu started as obvious threatening charismatic, cynical authoritarians. That came with how they used power.

I take the point on Salvini and (I'd say) Modi.

[alfred russel]

I guess. I just don't see Tom Cotton as a charismatic cynical dictator in waiting. We'll see.

None of those guys you mentioned (well except Modi I guess) ever had to weather the 24/7 international 18 month media circus of our elections. It takes a special kind of media personality to do what Donald did. It is not as easy and straightforward as it might appear to simply be Trump without his weaknesses.

A contrarian point of view would be that rural folks, evangelicals, and other conservatives are not especially excited about NYC real estate moguls who inherited their wealth, have gone through a bunch of wives, and are generally transparently shitty.

They support him because he has a unique policy agenda they like, and that more than overcomes the high barrier of entry his personality presents. Someone picking up his policy agenda without the other baggage may go far.

[Valmy]

That was already true prior to Trump. Plenty of politicians, like Cruz, were far better aligned with them than Trump but celebrity wins.

[grumbler]

A contrarian point of view would be that rural folks, evangelicals, and other conservatives are not especially excited about NYC real estate moguls who inherited their wealth, have gone through a bunch of wives, and are generally transparently shitty.

They support him because he has a unique policy agenda they like, and that more than overcomes the high barrier of entry his personality presents. Someone picking up his policy agenda without the other baggage may go far.

Huey Long did that and it took a bullet to stop him.

[Razgovory]

I honestly don't think Trump's supporters care much about policy, though they may say they do.  I think the real motive is that Trump promises to hurt people they hate.  Tom Cotton's statement about bringing in the army and offering "no quarter" to protesters is the kind of thing they want to hear.

[Valmy]

Probably a better strategy in the 1930s though. Going hard after the conservative base when the Republicans have struggled in the popular vote since the 1980s is a tricky strategy on its own.

[Sheilbh]

But Cruz isn't really a Trumpist is he? He's just an old-school social conservative and party loyalist. I don't think 99% of the stuff that's happened with Trump happens with President Cruz.

He doesn't seem to me to have nationalist/authoritarian bent that you get with Cotton or Hawley. He's more of an enabler I suppose.

[alfred russel]

That was already true prior to Trump. Plenty of politicians, like Cruz, were far better aligned with them than Trump but celebrity wins.

The #1 policy proposal of Ted Cruz wasn't to build a wall and make Mexico pay for it.

[Valmy]

But Cruz isn't really a Trumpist is he? He's just an old-school social conservative and party loyalist. I don't think 99% of the stuff that's happened with Trump happens with President Cruz.

He doesn't seem to me to have nationalist/authoritarian bent that you get with Cotton or Hawley. He's more of an enabler I suppose.

He is not a party loyalist but a very ideological extremist. He literally thinks he is on a mission from God.

I was talking about the evangelical and conservative group that was being discussed, not the nationalist populists. Appealing to them requires the sort of theatrics I was talking about earlier.

[Valmy]

That was already true prior to Trump. Plenty of politicians, like Cruz, were far better aligned with them than Trump but celebrity wins.

The #1 policy proposal of Ted Cruz wasn't to build a wall and make Mexico pay for it.

Well that's true. But who besides a celebrity like Trump would come up with something so wacky and sell it so well?

[Sheilbh]

He is not a party loyalist but a very ideological extremist. He literally thinks he is on a mission from God.

He rowed in behind a candidate who called his wife ugly and accused his dad of killing JFK - he's a party loyalist. He might pose and even really believe that he is driven by his deeply held religious principles but that looks like very successful cognitive dissonance.

He is on the hard-line social conservative wing of the party, he might have that sense of mission. But I don't think anyone ever panics at the thought that Cruz might not, ultimately, follow the party line.

I mean when has he ever bucked that because of his mission from God? He was the candidate running on morals and pitching for the evangelicals but he couldn't even bring himself to mewl the slightest rebuke of Trump once he was the party's nominee. I feel like he's very good at convincing himself that going along with the party just so happens to be a perfect circl venn diagram of his mission from God

[Barrister]

He is not a party loyalist but a very ideological extremist. He literally thinks he is on a mission from God.

He rowed in behind a candidate who called his wife ugly and accused his dad of killing JFK - he's a party loyalist. He might pose and even really believe that he is driven by his deeply held religious principles but that looks like very successful cognitive dissonance.

He is on the hard-line social conservative wing of the party, he might have that sense of mission. But I don't think anyone ever panics at the thought that Cruz might not, ultimately, follow the party line.

I mean when has he ever bucked that because of his mission from God? He was the candidate running on morals and pitching for the evangelicals but he couldn't even bring himself to mewl the slightest rebuke of Trump once he was the party's nominee. I feel like he's very good at convincing himself that going along with the party just so happens to be a perfect circl venn diagram of his mission from God

I don't know if this makes Cruz better or worse, but he didn't fall in line immediately.  Remember he famously refused to endorse Trump at the 2016 Convention.

[alfred russel]

He rowed in behind a candidate who called his wife ugly and accused his dad of killing JFK - he's a party loyalist. He might pose and even really believe that he is driven by his deeply held religious principles but that looks like very successful cognitive dissonance.

I just googled a picture of his wife, and I think that Ted Cruz probably recognizes there was a bit of truth on that one.

[viper37]

I mean how do you strategically and logically advance authoritarian conspiracies. It might work but that is a hard fence to straddle.

Defeatocrats.

I think we have Fox News as a proof it can be done and people will believe it.