US 2020 Presidential Election prediction thread

[Maladict]

I hope it will be better, but I'll take it.

[Valmy]

That is a really good map for Donald, though if it goes that far Nevada might flip...but Biden would still barely win in that scenario.

It just shows how critical Pennsylvania is.

[alfred russel]

It just shows how critical Pennsylvania is.

Yep. And everyone knows it. The forces of Trump will try to take over the state from their strongholds in the south, marching in with their tiki torches. Biden will bring in antifa reinforcements from the North. They will probably run into each other in some sleepy Pennsyvlania town.

Gettysburg 2.0, in 2020. You are still captivated by the epic tragedy from 157 years ago: don't miss an even more epic farce!

[OttoVonBismarck]

In a really close race that Biden wins, I actually think it's more likely he hits 270 exactly with wins in WI / MI / ME2 / NE1 / AZ, I tend to really like the fundamentals for the Democrats in Arizona. They beat McSally there two years ago, they're beating her again this year, a lot of time statewide races like that can tell you a lot about the direction of the state. All the "fundamentals" with Arizona suggest a blueing state, and the polls have been decent for Biden there. Pennsylvania is a murkier state in terms of demographics, PA also may be in the FL2000 position of being the worst prepared state for a close election, which is fun.

Oddly enough because FL requires all of the mail in ballots to actually be in by 7PM on election day, and is actually pretty fast at counting them, unless FL is quite close we may know the whole shebang really quickly. If Biden has clearly won in Florida it's over, there is virtually no realistic map in which Trump has lost Florida and wins the election, both for the fundamentals of it--it just means he has to win too many hard to win states, and that it would be a strong indicator Trump is going to do very badly in several other states, like NC, AZ etc.

[OttoVonBismarck]

FWIW I'm highly Dem skeptical of FL in general, they got wiped out in statewides there in 2018 and I'm disinclined to think the demographics have improved there, although Biden's unexpected popularity with older white voters means the 2020 race in FL is very unlike any recent D vs R matchups, but still, I'm skeptical of FL. It's definitely in reach for Biden, but my most likely map would be Biden loses FL while still winning the election based off of flipping the "Hillary Blue Wall" back to blue, and flipping AZ. But if Biden has won FL, and convincingly, I think the election is over. This would be one of the "best case" for the country arguments too, because if Biden wins Florida a lot of the GOP will have their "Hitler is dead" moment and institutional support for Trump will collapse as the rats start fighting for power in the post-Trump party.

[Sheilbh]

Another widget
https://cookpolitical.com/swingometer?

[The Larch]

Another widget
https://cookpolitical.com/swingometer?

It's interesting to fiddle with the different demographics... for what I've seen so far, a higher turnout than expected for African Americans might turn Georgia and North Carolina, higher latino turnout might flip Arizona. Asians don't really move the needle much.

[grumbler]

   The Democrats swung two House seats away from the Republicans in 2018, going from 15-11 R to D to 14-13.

[OttoVonBismarck]

It may not have been clear but when I said "statewides" that was short for "statewide elections", i.e. State constitutional offices like Governor / Attorney General, and the statewide Federal office (U.S. Senate), I think congressional districts are not quite as telling as to the path of a state since they represent only chunks of them (except in the really small states.)

[OttoVonBismarck]

Digging more into it though the Dems did pick up 6 State House seats and 1 State Senate seat, so the trendlines may be a bit murkier than the Governor / U.S. Senate races would suggest (there's also some evidence Bill Nelson ran a spectacularly poor campaign in 2018.)

[FunkMonk]

Recent polling suggests Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Georgia are more likely to go blue this year than PA/MI/WI go red.

[Valmy]

Recent polling suggests Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Georgia are more likely to go blue this year than PA/MI/WI go red.

I would agree but Pennsylvania went for Donald in 2016 and is so critical for both sides chances that it makes sense to stress over. I mean if even one of Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, or Ohio flip that would be incredible.

[Habbaku]

Look, I'm trying, okay?

[PDH]

Look, I'm trying, okay?

My ex-wife said I was very trying.

[Valmy]

Look, I'm trying, okay?

I appreciate it You are doing better than I am doing here in Texas so far.

So...about your neighbors to the northeast. The polling for Lindsey Graham is really weird, as it seems much closer than how it is for Trump-Biden. What is going on up there? Is Graham just specifically unpopular in South Carolina right now for unrelated reasons? I mean I don't expect him to lose it is just interesting.