US 2020 Presidential Election prediction thread

[grumbler]

It may not have been clear but when I said "statewides" that was short for "statewide elections", i.e. State constitutional offices like Governor / Attorney General, and the statewide Federal office (U.S. Senate), I think congressional districts are not quite as telling as to the path of a state since they represent only chunks of them (except in the really small states.)

The republicans won the Governorship/Lt Gov 49.6% to 49.4%, so not much of a creaming.  The Democrats did flip the Ag and Consumer Affairs seat (one of the four statewide seats) and lost the Senate race by the narrowest possible margin (50.03% to 49.03%, a matter of 10,033 votes out of 8.19 million votes cast and well within the margin of error).  Any republican taking comfort in those results is foolish.

[Solmyr]

So...about your neighbors to the northeast. The polling for Lindsey Graham is really weird, as it seems much closer than how it is for Trump-Biden. What is going on up there? Is Graham just specifically unpopular in South Carolina right now for unrelated reasons? I mean I don't expect him to lose it is just interesting.

Maybe they are using his words against him.

[viper37]

Another widget
https://cookpolitical.com/swingometer?

Interesting.  Only 72% if Hispanics/Latinos support the Dems?  After being called scums&rapists by the GOP?  After seeing their brethren being treated like vermin at the border?  I don't know what it'll take to move the needle there.

I'm looking at what is required to flip a State like Texas to a nice shape of blue.  Even increasing the voting intentions by 10% doesn't cut it if I keep the turnout constant.  Voter turnout needs to move up by close to 8-10% in any kind of scenario that would involve turning Texas.  that'd be a major slap in the face of the GOP if it where to happen.
But it's unrealistic.  Maybe I am mistaken, but it seems like many foreigners look at it the same way I do, but the Democrats don't seem to be making much of an effort outside of "we're not Donald Trump".  I'm scared.

[viper37]

So...about your neighbors to the northeast. The polling for Lindsey Graham is really weird, as it seems much closer than how it is for Trump-Biden. What is going on up there? Is Graham just specifically unpopular in South Carolina right now for unrelated reasons? I mean I don't expect him to lose it is just interesting.

Maybe they are using his words against him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qp0_dK3mvr4

[Sheilbh]

So...about your neighbors to the northeast. The polling for Lindsey Graham is really weird, as it seems much closer than how it is for Trump-Biden. What is going on up there? Is Graham just specifically unpopular in South Carolina right now for unrelated reasons? I mean I don't expect him to lose it is just interesting.

Maybe they are using his words against him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qp0_dK3mvr4

You really have to admire the shameless lack of pretence.

[Sheilbh]

Interesting.  Only 72% if Hispanics/Latinos support the Dems?  After being called scums&rapists by the GOP?  After seeing their brethren being treated like vermin at the border?  I don't know what it'll take to move the needle there.

Thing I find interesting is Trump is already losing even if he wins the 2016 voteshare because of demographic trends. So presumably needs to win new voters, which doesn't seem to be his approach so far.

[Habbaku]

Look, I'm trying, okay?

I appreciate it You are doing better than I am doing here in Texas so far.

So...about your neighbors to the northeast. The polling for Lindsey Graham is really weird, as it seems much closer than how it is for Trump-Biden. What is going on up there? Is Graham just specifically unpopular in South Carolina right now for unrelated reasons? I mean I don't expect him to lose it is just interesting.

Everyone loathes Graham. There are basically no people, even Trumpists, that say they approve of him. The difficulty is that most Carolinians hate Democrats even more, so it's a balancing act to find someone who's a Dem but less loathsome than Graham himself.

[Valmy]

Well about 40% of South Carolina votes Democratic, it is not Wyoming or anything.

[Sheilbh]

Is he the biggest credibility sink of the Trump era?

Maybe it was just McCain's glow reflecting on him but I always thought he was fairly well-respected and seemed like a credible, reasonably independent minded politician. And then the last few years he's just been utterly craven.

[Valmy]

Is he the biggest credibility sink of the Trump era?

Maybe it was just McCain's glow reflecting on him but I always thought he was fairly well-respected and seemed like a credible, reasonably independent minded politician. And then the last few years he's just been utterly craven.

During the Bush years I thought he was a fucking idiot, I could always count on him to deliver the most pathetic rationalization for whatever Dubya was up to at the moment. It was only in the Republican Primaries of 2016 that some people thought he was this voice of reason and respectability, which to me just spoke to how far the party had fallen.

[Syt]

Is he the biggest credibility sink of the Trump era?

Maybe it was just McCain's glow reflecting on him but I always thought he was fairly well-respected and seemed like a credible, reasonably independent minded politician. And then the last few years he's just been utterly craven.

"The demographics race we're losing badly. We're not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term."
- L. Graham, 2012

[Valmy]

Well Graham has made me an angry white guy a few times over the years. So I guess he did his part generating one.

[Sheilbh]

Is he the biggest credibility sink of the Trump era?

Maybe it was just McCain's glow reflecting on him but I always thought he was fairly well-respected and seemed like a credible, reasonably independent minded politician. And then the last few years he's just been utterly craven.

"The demographics race we're losing badly. We're not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term."
- L. Graham, 2012

I mean that seems like a fairly accurate diagnosis, no?

One solution was they try and expand outside of the angry white guy demographic - this was after 2012 when the GOP were planning to do immigration reform etc. In fact they appear to have doubled down on the let's only appeal to angry white guys, but also make it difficult for everyone else to vote approach

[FunkMonk]

Interesting.  Only 72% if Hispanics/Latinos support the Dems?  After being called scums&rapists by the GOP?  After seeing their brethren being treated like vermin at the border?  I don't know what it'll take to move the needle there.

Thing I find interesting is Trump is already losing even if he wins the 2016 voteshare because of demographic trends. So presumably needs to win new voters, which doesn't seem to be his approach so far.

There are presumably millions more non-college educated white voters in the Midwest that didn't turn out in 2016 that he needs to juice up.

[Admiral Yi]

Is he the biggest credibility sink of the Trump era?

Maybe it was just McCain's glow reflecting on him but I always thought he was fairly well-respected and seemed like a credible, reasonably independent minded politician. And then the last few years he's just been utterly craven.

ditto

But I see your Graham and raise you Barr.