Bernie v Joe, Who do you like?

[merithyn]

From CBS News:

In Warren's home state, Biden won a larger share of female voters than Sanders and Warren.

Thirty-four percent of women backed Biden, 26% went for Sanders and 24% supported Warren, according to exit polls.

Of course it's possible Massachusetts has usually high proportions of fascist women.

Wait. When did Biden become fascist?

[dps]

Code Select Expand

BIDEN
STATE MALE FEMALE DIFF.
Iowa 16% 16% 0
New Hampshire 8% 8% 0
Nevada 18% 17% 1
South Carolina 48% 49% -1


Code Select Expand

SANDERS
STATE MALE FEMALE DIFF.
Iowa 26% 20% 6
New Hampshire 31% 23% 8
Nevada 38% 30% 8
South Carolina 24% 17% 7


Bernie's exit polls from the earlier states seem to suggest a different dynamic (at least among voters)

Pulled from here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday/#265509

Stop using facts to undermine perfectly good anecdotal evidence.

Now, now, it depends on whether he was replying to Meri or to Tyr.  If it was Meri, yes, then he was using facts to undermine anecdotal evidence.  If it was Tyr, then he was using facts to undermine inane delusions.  Quite a different thing.

I pointed out that a silly poll on FB showed that women tended to prefer Warren or Biden over Bernie. This bears that out.

WTF?!?  It doesn't show that!  It shows Biden's support among women to be almost the same as his support among men, but it shows Sanders to have much more support from men than from women.

[merithyn]

I pointed out that a silly poll on FB showed that women tended to prefer Warren or Biden over Bernie. This bears that out.

WTF?!?  It doesn't show that!  It shows Biden's support among women to be almost the same as his support among men, but it shows Sanders to have much more support from men than from women.

I'm clearly missing something.

It appears to me that we're both saying the same thing: Women tend to prefer Biden over Sanders, aka it's mostly men who support Sanders.

Is that not true? Is that not being shown in the data provided?

[Grey Fox]

It makes no comparison between Biden & Sanders.

Only between men & women for a given candidate.

[The Minsky Moment]

Wait. When did Biden become fascist?

Since Tyr posted:

It's a well observed tendency for women to tend to be more in favour of socialist candidates whilst men are more prone to falling for fascism.
. . .
Not a massive surprise Sanders would poll better with women.

[The Minsky Moment]

It makes no comparison between Biden & Sanders.

Only between men & women for a given candidate.

For the two candidates it shows the gender skew in their vote in those 2 states.  You can then compare the skews.

[Eddie Teach]

From CBS News:

In Warren's home state, Biden won a larger share of female voters than Sanders and Warren.

Thirty-four percent of women backed Biden, 26% went for Sanders and 24% supported Warren, according to exit polls.

Of course it's possible Massachusetts has usually high proportions of fascist women.

Wait. When did Biden become fascist?

When he kicked Kamala off the bus.

[Sheilbh]

Regarding "women skew socialist" debate I just checked the Spanish data and over here they skew centrist. Far-left and far-right parties have significantly more men voting for them than women.

Yeah. Historically it went the other way in the UK - when women's suffrage happened lots of Tories were terrified these soft-minded, kind-hearted creatures would vote Liberal or even socialist. As it turned out they disproportionately voted Conservative.

Until 2017 women were more likely to vote Tory, men were more likely to vote Labour. 2017 was different, 2019 is back to something like the norm so we'll see if 2017 was a blip or the start of a re-alignment:


The entire time I can remember UK politics there's been talk about x Conservative leader having an issue winning women voters, but I think it's just because the UK political class inhales American news and culture. So we've transported the gender politics from there (where I think women do vote Democratic far more than Republican) to here. This sort of thing happens a lot

[Agelastus]

I'm a little surprised we still have 47 posters.

You lurkers suck.

I'd like to know who the 4 secret Trumpers are. 

It's not clear that the 4 people who voted "This question scares me" are Trump supporters.  They might be scared because they think neither Bernie nor Biden can beat Trump in November.

Or alternatively didn't realise that this was a specifically Trump option.

The idea that the Democrats are putting up either a demented wannabe Socialist who has already had at least one heart attack before taking on any of the pressures of the Presidency, or a has-been twice defeated on previous presidential runs (the first as far back as 1988!!!) who is only a year younger than the demented wannabe Socialist and who also has a known history of speech impediments that can serve as a ready made defence against accusations of dementia...

...no there's nothing frightening about that at all.

[Admiral Yi]

Or alternatively didn't realise that this was a specifically Trump option.

It's the Jaron option.

[Josquius]

Quote from: merithyn on Today at 01:25:07 pm
Wait. When did Biden become fascist?

Since Tyr posted:
Quote
It's a well observed tendency for women to tend to be more in favour of socialist candidates whilst men are more prone to falling for fascism.
. . .
Not a massive surprise Sanders would poll better with women.

So when did Biden become a fascist after this?

Regarding "women skew socialist" debate I just checked the Spanish data and over here they skew centrist. Far-left and far-right parties have significantly more men voting for them than women.

Yeah. Historically it went the other way in the UK - when women's suffrage happened lots of Tories were terrified these soft-minded, kind-hearted creatures would vote Liberal or even socialist. As it turned out they disproportionately voted Conservative.

Until 2017 women were more likely to vote Tory, men were more likely to vote Labour. 2017 was different, 2019 is back to something like the norm so we'll see if 2017 was a blip or the start of a re-alignment:
[img]https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uplo
The entire time I can remember UK politics there's been talk about x Conservative leader having an issue winning women voters, but I think it's just because the UK political class inhales American news and culture. So we've transported the gender politics from there (where I think women do vote Democratic far more than Republican) to here. This sort of thing happens a lot

2019 had women being far more Labour leaning and less Conservative than men. 19 points of difference for men vs. 6 for women.
With women increasingly being more educated and the toxic culture of masculinity further entrenching I can really see this trend continuing.

[Sheilbh]

2019 had women being far more Labour leaning and less Conservative than men. 19 points of difference for men vs. 6 for women.
With women increasingly being more educated and the toxic culture of masculinity further entrenching I can really see this trend continuing.

Women were 4 points more likely to vote Labour and 2 points less likely to vote Tory - so the same as 2017. I think you're just looking at the women 18-24 (and that's common across lots of previous elections too):


But you're right if education keeps being a key divide it's likely that women will break more to Labour. Although that may not be an enduring divide - people with degrees tend to earn more than people without degrees and I think class/material interest will eventually out.

[Josquius]

2019 had women being far more Labour leaning and less Conservative than men. 19 points of difference for men vs. 6 for women.
With women increasingly being more educated and the toxic culture of masculinity further entrenching I can really see this trend continuing.

Women were 4 points more likely to vote Labour and 2 points less likely to vote Tory - so the same as 2017. I think you're just looking at the women 18-24 (and that's common across lots of previous elections too):
[img width=1024 height=1024]https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfron]

No, I'm looking at all women.
The difference is most stark with the young but it carries across the age groups. Women are more likely to vote leftwards than men.

[Sheilbh]

But the gap for all women is the same as in 2017 (+4 and -2), which is fairly small and those are two of the only three elections in a century where women were more likely than men to vote Labour.

2017 and 2019 are also the first election when C2DE voters mainly voted Tory. So it's like just looking at those two and saying the working class are more likely to vote right-wing than the rich.

Both could be a big re-alignment, or they could be blips.

[garbon]

Sheilbh is much more patient than I.