Bernie v Joe, Who do you like?

[The Minsky Moment]

From CBS News:

In Warren's home state, Biden won a larger share of female voters than Sanders and Warren.

Thirty-four percent of women backed Biden, 26% went for Sanders and 24% supported Warren, according to exit polls.

Of course it's possible Massachusetts has usually high proportions of fascist women.

[Valmy]

Lots of women support Bernie, I really hate the smear Bernie Bros.

Of course since one of those women is my favorite person in the world that kind of biases me I admit. I think that is the big reason I just cannot dislike Bernie even if I will only ever vote for him if he actually wins the nomination.

[The Minsky Moment]

The big demographic phenomenon for Super Tuesday is that young voters didn't show.  That not only contributed to Bernie's defeat in certain states, it raises questions about the entire raison d'etre of his electability case: that he can mobilize younger voters to come out in higher proportions.

[crazy canuck]

The big demographic phenomenon for Super Tuesday is that young voters didn't show.  That not only contributed to Bernie's defeat in certain states, it raises questions about the entire raison d'etre of his electability case: that he can mobilize younger voters to come out in higher proportions.

Added to that, about twice the voters showed up in Virginia compared to the 2016 primary - Joe demonstrated he can turn out the vote in the states the matter.  Turning out a few more votes in California is not going to impact the next Presidential election.  So what is Sander's argument now?

[Valmy]

The big demographic phenomenon for Super Tuesday is that young voters didn't show.  That not only contributed to Bernie's defeat in certain states, it raises questions about the entire raison d'etre of his electability case: that he can mobilize younger voters to come out in higher proportions.

No doubt.

I heard some rather radical young guy on NPR talking about how nominating a moderate like Biden was a racist attempt to appeal to the "white moderate" and a radical was needed to mobilize the young "people of color" who want radical changes. Of course when the actual election comes the people of color voted for the moderate and the young people of all races stayed home. So much for that theory.

It was the guy who wrote this article: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/01/why-i-fear-a-moderate-candidate/605608/

[HisMajestyBOB]

The big demographic phenomenon for Super Tuesday is that young voters didn't show.  That not only contributed to Bernie's defeat in certain states, it raises questions about the entire raison d'etre of his electability case: that he can mobilize younger voters to come out in higher proportions.

Both 18-29 and 30-44 skewed Bernie pretty heavily. I don't have the turnout by age handy, but it looks like "younger" in this case is anyone under middle age.

Which is worrying if it holds in the general election.

[Valmy]

Well lots of (most?) Millenials are now in the 30-44 range.

[The Minsky Moment]

Bernie can still win but the Bros (and Gals) have to go to the polls.  If they show in Michigan, Ohio, etc, he will win.  If they don't he won't. The DNC establishment isn't forcing them to stay home.  His fate is in his own hands and his supporters' hands.

[Valmy]

Bernie can still win but the Bros (and Gals) have to go to the polls.  If they show in Michigan, Ohio, etc, he will win.  If they don't he won't. The DNC establishment isn't forcing them to stay home.  His fate is in his own hands and his supporters' hands.

Yeah if any of them were thinking Sanders had a clear path they now have to scramble and show up in a big way.

[The Minsky Moment]

Which is worrying if it holds in the general election.

I agree, all the more reason Bernie needs to show he can mobilize those demographics to come out, and not just get the lion's share of the few that do.

[The Brain]

Bernie can still win but the Bros (and Gals) have to go to the polls.  If they show in Michigan, Ohio, etc, he will win.  If they don't he won't. The DNC establishment isn't forcing them to stay home.  His fate is in his own hands and his supporters' hands.

Personal responsibility is evil.

[crazy canuck]

The big demographic phenomenon for Super Tuesday is that young voters didn't show.  That not only contributed to Bernie's defeat in certain states, it raises questions about the entire raison d'etre of his electability case: that he can mobilize younger voters to come out in higher proportions.

No doubt.

I heard some rather radical young guy on NPR talking about how nominating a moderate like Biden was a racist attempt to appeal to the "white moderate" and a radical was needed to mobilize the young "people of color" who want radical changes. Of course when the actual election comes the people of color voted for the moderate and the young people of all races stayed home. So much for that theory.

It was the guy who wrote this article: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/01/why-i-fear-a-moderate-candidate/605608/

Apparently the young black vote went Sanders in South Carolina.  But elections cannot be won be depending only on the young vote - again South Carolina is the best example of that. 

[Admiral Yi]

Man, what a difference a week can make.  Bernie was a mortal lock and Joe was dead in the water.

[Valmy]

Man, what a difference a week can make.  Bernie was a mortal lock and Joe was dead in the water.

I am still nervous about Biden and his Bidenness in a long Presidential campaign. Everybody who has watched the debates know what I mean.

But it seems he is the guy the party decided to rally around. We could have certainly done worse.

[celedhring]

Man, what a difference a week can make.  Bernie was a mortal lock and Joe was dead in the water.

I am still nervous about Biden and his Bidenness in a long Presidential campaign. Everybody who has watched the debates know what I mean.

But it seems he is the guy the party decided to rally around. We could have certainly done worse.

Given the available datapoints, being semi-senile seems an electoral asset rather than a problem.