Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[DGuller]

It's encouraging to see that being put on a ventilator is not a virtual death sentence it was a year ago.

[jimmy olsen]

https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1391238136219512833
https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1391238136961830914
https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1391238137804906496
https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1391238138572464129
https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1391238139314847744

India reports another 400,000+ cases, 4000+ death day

A sustained level of horribleness

And its not correct

True number surely closer to 25,000 deaths, 2-5 million infections today

Lots of ways to estimate but here's a simple one

Look at the crematoriums

During non-pandemic year 2019

About 27,000 Indians died on typical day

Crematoriums handle that level of deaths every day

Additional 4,000 deaths won't knock them off their feet

Crematoriums across the country reporting 2-4X normal business

So best estimate 55K to 80K people dying daily in India

If you assume baseline deaths of 25-30K

COVID likely causing additional 25K to 50K deaths daily

Not 4,000

What about infections?

Lets start with Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR)

In India, at least 1% right now

You might say -- woah, that's high

In US its about 0.6% and India has a younger population

BUT

Indian healthcare system has collapsed,

People dying for lack of oxygen

So IFR of 1% is reasonable, may even too low

Which would put daily infections at 2.5 to 5M / day

So here's the bottom line

India can't be experiencing 4K deaths a day

If it were, it would barely be blip in the background

Instead, seeing crematoriums running 24/7 and running out of firewood

Means the # of deaths from COVID at least closer to 25K, may be much more

[Tamas]

So for those of you following; a couple weeks ago I mentioned my younger brother was on a ventilator in hospital; then about five days ago, he was off the ventilator. Now, he told me, his doctor says they will probably send him home in a day or two.

[Syt]

So for those of you following; a couple weeks ago I mentioned my younger brother was on a ventilator in hospital; then about five days ago, he was off the ventilator. Now, he told me, his doctor says they will probably send him home in a day or two.

Awesome.

[Maladict]

So for those of you following; a couple weeks ago I mentioned my younger brother was on a ventilator in hospital; then about five days ago, he was off the ventilator. Now, he told me, his doctor says they will probably send him home in a day or two.

[Josephus]

It's encouraging to see that being put on a ventilator is not a virtual death sentence it was a year ago.

I'm sure my brother concurs

[Jacob]

Great news

[Berkut]

So for those of you following; a couple weeks ago I mentioned my younger brother was on a ventilator in hospital; then about five days ago, he was off the ventilator. Now, he told me, his doctor says they will probably send him home in a day or two.

That is fantastic!

[Legbiter]

So for those of you following; a couple weeks ago I mentioned my younger brother was on a ventilator in hospital; then about five days ago, he was off the ventilator. Now, he told me, his doctor says they will probably send him home in a day or two.

Some good news at last. Felt like a punch in the gut when you said he was on a ventilator because here in the beginning it was basically a coin toss whether you survived if you were put on one.

[Berkut]

I have a sometimes date who is a respiraotry therapist. She works pretty much full time on patients with respiratory diseases, so needles to say, that has been mostly covid.

I saw her last week and asked her about a "friend of a friend" who had covid and was put on a ventilator. She kind of sighed and said something like "Well, every case is different....but that is still really, really not good".

She said even now putting a covid patient on a ventilator is usually a last ditch effort, and the mortality rate is still very, very high for those who go onto a vent. The damage the disease does to your lungs is so extensive that by the time you are putting someone on a ventilator, the vent itself does so much damage it is often not recoverable. Before covid, a vent was a way to let the lungs "take a break" and hopefully heal. But covid is just too damaging and a ventilator is rarely used anymore because by the time you need one, the damage is too great and the vent itself just makes it worse.

So I am super glad, after hearing that, to hear he is better! Freaking awesome.

[Maladict]

Israel seems to have moved on from Covid, going back to normal life.

[Josquius]

Hurray for Jo's brother.

[Sheilbh]

That is great news

Latest press conference in the UK announcing the next stage of lockdown-lifting. I remember when the press got really annoyed that they were going to have a random question from the public because they're not professional interrogaters and will be ill-informed and ask daft questions. Today:

Ordinary member of the public: What proportion of new cases are caused by variants of concern other than the Kent strain?

Professional journalist: Mr Prime Minister, who will you hug when you get the chance?

Edit: This reminds me of the weeks the press spent obsessively asking government whether a scotch egg counted as a "substantial meal" or not

[Josephus]

I have a sometimes date who is a respiraotry therapist. She works pretty much full time on patients with respiratory diseases, so needles to say, that has been mostly covid.

I saw her last week and asked her about a "friend of a friend" who had covid and was put on a ventilator. She kind of sighed and said something like "Well, every case is different....but that is still really, really not good".

She said even now putting a covid patient on a ventilator is usually a last ditch effort, and the mortality rate is still very, very high for those who go onto a vent. The damage the disease does to your lungs is so extensive that by the time you are putting someone on a ventilator, the vent itself does so much damage it is often not recoverable. Before covid, a vent was a way to let the lungs "take a break" and hopefully heal. But covid is just too damaging and a ventilator is rarely used anymore because by the time you need one, the damage is too great and the vent itself just makes it worse.

So I am super glad, after hearing that, to hear he is better! Freaking awesome.

Thanks. It was touch and go for the first week. They gave him some super steroid to lessen the inflammation in his lungs, and he started to recover. He's probably going home by Thursday or Friday. He'll have oxygen he'll have to carry around, and he won't be "normal" for a while. In ideal circumstances, they would keep him in hospital a bit longer, but right now in Toronto, there's a shortage of beds.  His respiratory doctor basically said, "by and large you're trending in the right direction, and all we're doing now is monitoring your oxygen levels. If you reach [enter number here], there's no need to keep you."

My brother this morning was happy because he was able to walk to the bathroom and back to bed without needing supplemental oxygen. First time in two weeks.

[viper37]

So for those of you following; a couple weeks ago I mentioned my younger brother was on a ventilator in hospital; then about five days ago, he was off the ventilator. Now, he told me, his doctor says they will probably send him home in a day or two.

great news!