Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[jimmy olsen]

Over 110k cases in the last two days and nearly 1900 dead.

[celedhring]

From today on mask is mandatory at all times when outside of private spaces, regardless of social distancing, in several Spanish regions (including Catalonia, which is staring at a worrying outbreak). Seems a bit pointless to me, I think the issue regarding masks is enforcement rather than forcing people to wear them in situations where it probably offers little benefit (i.e., walking on non-crowded streets), which ultimately will make enforcement more difficult.

[Tamas]

From today on mask is mandatory at all times when outside of private spaces, regardless of social distancing, in several Spanish regions (including Catalonia, which is staring at a worrying outbreak). Seems a bit pointless to me, I think the issue regarding masks is enforcement rather than forcing people to wear them in situations where it probably offers little benefit (i.e., walking on non-crowded streets), which ultimately will make enforcement more difficult.

I think the thing is, people will try to bend any rules.  If you make a rule to force it only in the specific situations when they make sense (people who think are infected in close proximity of others), not everyone will follow the rule to the letter AND there's no way to enforce it. If you make it mandatory at all times, then that will cover all possible situations where it helps, can be enforced much more easily.

[celedhring]

Until now the rule is that it was mandatory when in all situations where social distancing was not possible, and some places where it was mandatory at all times like public transportation. Plus most establishments required it regardless of social distancing. I think that was enough and the focus should be enforcement, which is lax in many situations (my gym, public transport, etc...) instead of adding new use cases.

[garbon]

Until now the rule is that it was mandatory when in all situations where social distancing was not possible, and some places where it was mandatory at all times like public transportation. Plus most establishments required it regardless of social distancing. I think that was enough and the focus should be enforcement, which is lax in many situations (my gym, public transport, etc...) instead of adding new use cases.

Yes, but that seems to suggest it is added a few more situations where you need to wear it vs. reality that you always need to where them when not in a private space.

From my few forays out, it only takes a few seconds of walking (even here in outer zone London) to move from a non-crowded street to a crowded one. I'm not sure we are best served to have people constantly taking their masks off and on...as wasn't one of the early concerns (back when the West was asking like masks should never be used) that people constantly are touching them/their face so lose all benefit of wearing a mask?

[garbon]

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa864/5866094

Managing COVID-19 spread with voluntary public-health measures: Sweden as a case study for pandemic control

Background
The COVID-19 pandemic has spread globally, causing extensive illness and mortality. In advance of effective antiviral therapies, countries have applied different public-health strategies to control spread and manage healthcare need. Sweden has taken a unique approach of not implementing strict closures, instead urging personal responsibility. We analyze the results of this and other potential strategies for pandemic control in Sweden.

Methods
We implemented individual-based modeling of COVID-19 spread in Sweden using population, employment, and household data. Epidemiological parameters for COVID-19 were validated on a limited date range; where substantial uncertainties remained, multiple parameters were tested. The effects of different public-health strategies were tested over a 160-day period, analyzed for their effects on ICU demand and death rate, and compared to Swedish data for April 2020.

Results
Swedish mortality rates fall intermediate between European countries that quickly imposed stringent public-health controls and countries that acted later. Models most closely reproducing reported mortality data suggest large portions of the population voluntarily self-isolate. Swedish ICU utilization rates remained lower than predicted, but a large fraction of deaths occurred in non-ICU patients. This suggests that patient prognosis was considered in ICU admission, reducing healthcare load at a cost of decreased survival in patients not admitted.

Conclusions
The Swedish COVID-19 strategy has thus far yielded a striking result: mild mandates overlaid with voluntary measures can achieve results highly similar to late-onset stringent mandates. However, this policy causes more healthcare demand and mortality than early stringent control and depends on continued public will.

[Tamas]

Conclusions
The Swedish COVID-19 strategy has thus far yielded a striking result: mild mandates overlaid with voluntary measures can achieve results highly similar to late-onset stringent mandates. However, this policy causes more healthcare demand and mortality than early stringent control and depends on continued public will.

Conclusions
The Swedish COVID-19 strategy works out pretty well as long as the population is willing to voluntarily self-impose lockdown restrictions, and as long as we keep the dying out of the ICUs.

[Syt]

[Threviel]

Conclusions
The Swedish COVID-19 strategy has thus far yielded a striking result: mild mandates overlaid with voluntary measures can achieve results highly similar to late-onset stringent mandates. However, this policy causes more healthcare demand and mortality than early stringent control and depends on continued public will.

Conclusions
The Swedish COVID-19 strategy works out pretty well as long as the population is willing to voluntarily self-impose lockdown restrictions, and as long as we keep the dying out of the ICUs.

The Swedish Covid-19 strategy was to only impose restrictions that can be acceptable over a long period of time and that seems legitimate to the population.

Seems sensible looking at the world going in and out of lockdown and protests against masks and whatever. I guess we'll know better in a year or so.

[Tamas]

Those who protest against lockdown would not be following similar requests voluntarily so there wouldn't be a difference for the better.

[alfred russel]

Georgia just posted its numbers for the past couple days...I won't bother you with the details, but we continue our march to the stratosphere.

Here is the disconnect for me...this is by far the worst things have been in Georgia, and this is also the most open people have been. Gyms and restaurants crowded, etc.

One example to prove the point...the mayor was very forceful supporting locking Atlanta down. Was giving interviews and updates from her house. Was very critical of the governor for overriding her. Recently she has been participating in marches and giving in person press conferences. If there was a time to do media events from home, it is clearly now, not back in March when cases were low. (she also tested positive for covid19 in the past few days)

[Malthus]

Until now the rule is that it was mandatory when in all situations where social distancing was not possible, and some places where it was mandatory at all times like public transportation. Plus most establishments required it regardless of social distancing. I think that was enough and the focus should be enforcement, which is lax in many situations (my gym, public transport, etc...) instead of adding new use cases.

Yes, but that seems to suggest it is added a few more situations where you need to wear it vs. reality that you always need to where them when not in a private space.

From my few forays out, it only takes a few seconds of walking (even here in outer zone London) to move from a non-crowded street to a crowded one. I'm not sure we are best served to have people constantly taking their masks off and on...as wasn't one of the early concerns (back when the West was asking like masks should never be used) that people constantly are touching them/their face so lose all benefit of wearing a mask?

My understanding is that the primary benefit of the mask is not to prevent the wearer of the mask from getting ill, but to prevent the wearer of the mask from making others ill.

Constantly touching the mask isn't good for the wearer, particularly. However, it would not affect the primary purpose of wearing the mask - to avoid spreading one's possible virus to others.

[garbon]

Okay so same thing but flip it. Constantly touching the mask increases chance that wearer spreads their germs.

[celedhring]

As opposed to touching their mouth instead?

The "mask every-fucking-where" is pandemic posturing imho. The regional government has mandated it because they don't want to partially re-close, but at the same time want to be seen as being "tough against the virus".

Note that I'm verily in favor of mask-wearing indoors or in crowds.

[garbon]

As opposed to touching their mouth instead?

If you have your mask on at all times and don't touch it, then you are not likely to get any virus that could be inside your mask onto your hands and less likely to spread that to other surfaces. Similarly, though all note is less certain, if you were to get fluid containing COVID on your hands, touching your mask would be a way to increase your chances of contracting.

If one is only wearing one's mask at certain times, that person is likely touching their mask more often than the person who wears it the entire time they are outside their home. Of course, early in the pandemic I recall that being a reason why people shouldn't wear masks as they would likely keep touching it to adjust it and thus have a fall sense of security/increase chances of them touching their face.

https://www.businessinsider.com/mistakes-to-avoid-wearing-a-face-mask-coronavirus-2020-4?r=US&IR=T

Mistake #3: Constantly touching your mask to readjust it or touching the front when you're taking it off
If you do have to touch your mask to adjust it while you're wearing it outside, make sure you "clean your hands with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water," says the WHO. If your mask becomes damp (which it likely will), replace it if possible.

"Individuals should be careful not to touch their eyes, nose, and mouth when removing their face covering," according to the CDC. The WHO seconds this point. "Remove it from behind (do not touch the front of mask)," it says.

The reasoning is this: if there are virus particles trapped on the outside of the mask, they'll get on your hands when you touch it (another reason to make sure you're washing your hands after you dispose of your mask).

https://moffitt.org/endeavor/archive/5-mistakes-you-may-be-making-when-wearing-face-masks/

Mistake 3: You keep touching your mask – If your mask touches another part of your body that is potentially contaminated with the virus—hair, forehead, hands—and the mask is put over your mouth and nose, you are at risk for infection.

Always be sure to wash your hands before putting your mask on, and once it is in place and you are out in public, don't keep touching or adjusting it. When you're not wearing it, don't leave it around your neck in case there was any type of contamination.

Mistake 4: You're taking your mask off wrong – When putting your mask on and taking your mask off, be careful not to touch the front of the mask. Instead of touching the mask itself, the CDC recommends grasping the mask by the ear loops or ties. Always handle your mask with clean hands and make sure you are not touching your eyes, nose or mouth when removing the mask. Immediately wash your hands after handling your mask and store it in a separate containment area like a paper bag.

https://www.london.gov.uk/coronavirus/face-covering-guidance?cid=email_FINAL_TFLU092_Face_Covering_Update-https%3A%2F%2Fwww.london.gov.uk%2Fcoronavirus%2Fface-covering-guidance

Putting your face covering on
Wash your hands. Don't touch your face or face covering with unwashed hands or gloves. Put the covering on without touching the front of the covering, and ensure loose ends are tucked away when you have it on.

Taking your face covering off
Remove your face covering trying not to touch the front or face covering area. When you have removed it, store it in a plastic bag until you have an opportunity to wash it. Make sure you wash your hands for at least 20 seconds with soap after handling your face covering.