Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Josquius]

1 day of lower figures  means nothing

[jimmy olsen]

According to world meter (who counts by GM time) 2470 dead in AmericaWednesday, 2390 dead Thursday.  Does not seem to be slowing down.

That actually does mean it's slowing down, and it's not a good way to measure it regardless.  Deaths are a lagging measure, they ramp up with a delay and they ramp down with a delay.

Minor one day flucuation doesn't mean anything. It's the weekly average and it's higher so far this week than last week.

[The Brain]

(thank God)

There are no heterosexuals in the trenches.

[Sheilbh]

The concern about overwhelming medical systems - at least in the US - is past. To the extent it was a real risk, that was in the NYC area, and the temporary hospitals are being deconstructed and hospital ship sailing for Virginia.

Sure it's the same in Europe (except no-one is dismantling the surge capacity yet I don't think), but my point was medical systems generally weren't overwhelmed because the various lockdown measures reduced the transmission rate. As lockdown's lifted you need some degree of continued distancing and some program to monitor the disease or you'll just have to go back into lockdown because even if the transmission is low but above 1 it would overwhelm medical services within months.

So the "sensationalism" on potential fatalities is if it overwhelms your system as it has in the worst hit areas, we have changed our society in a radical way to reduce transmission and stop the disease from overwhelming our medical system. That doesn't mean those reports were just tabloid nonsense - it's like the model - it was useful reporting that changed policy and behaviour, leading to a different result.

[celedhring]

ICU use in Spain peaked at 90% of surge capacity in Madrid/Catalonia, so we avoided the collapse (although the quality of care in all those newly added ICUs probably wasn't the same), so I'd say mission accomplished on that regard.

They have dismantled some of the field hospitals already (which were used for mild or non-covid patients), but not the ICUs.

[Zoupa]

I don't see how the US opening schools would lead to millions of dead school kids. In Sweden schools for grades 1-9 have remained open, and so far we have (thank God) not a single Covid-19 death among the under-20s.

Absolutely no one said that the US opening schools would lead to millions of dead school kids.

Could it be exhibit #319712 of swedish humblebrag?

/yawn

[celedhring]

Spanish GDP drops 5% in the first quarter, largest drop on record... that's with just 2 weeks of lockdown.

[Agelastus]

I don't see how the US opening schools would lead to millions of dead school kids. In Sweden schools for grades 1-9 have remained open, and so far we have (thank God) not a single Covid-19 death among the under-20s.

Absolutely no one said that the US opening schools would lead to millions of dead school kids.

Could it be exhibit #319712 of swedish humblebrag?

/yawn

He is possibly referring back to this -

Dr Oz on Hannity: "Schools are a very appetizing opportunity. I just saw a nice piece in The Lancet arguing the opening of schools may only cost us 2 to 3%, in terms of total mortality. Any, you know, any life is a life lost, but that might be a trade-off some folks would consider."

Yeah sure if the Lancet article talking about schools being open would only increase the total case fatality rate in a country by 2-3% then that's maybe an acceptable tradeoff. That's a conscious choice that's been made here as well, schools are on shortened, staggered schedules but not closed. Secondary schools and universities are closed completely though. Kids don't really catch it that much, much less have complications from it. Probably the only good thing one can say about this virus. Just keep them away from grandparents.

Only about a couple million school kids dead in the US alone.  The conservative circle jerk of death just keeps getting worse.  Fuck you guys are morons.

[The Brain]

I don't see how the US opening schools would lead to millions of dead school kids. In Sweden schools for grades 1-9 have remained open, and so far we have (thank God) not a single Covid-19 death among the under-20s.

Absolutely no one said that the US opening schools would lead to millions of dead school kids.

Could it be exhibit #319712 of swedish humblebrag?

/yawn

CC did, see above.

[Threviel]

Also, we are not humble.

[DGuller]

According to world meter (who counts by GM time) 2470 dead in AmericaWednesday, 2390 dead Thursday.  Does not seem to be slowing down.

That actually does mean it's slowing down, and it's not a good way to measure it regardless.  Deaths are a lagging measure, they ramp up with a delay and they ramp down with a delay.

Minor one day flucuation doesn't mean anything. It's the weekly average and it's higher so far this week than last week.

I was going by what you posted.  If you think COVID-19 is not slowing down, why do you exclusively cite numbers that either imply the opposite or don't mean anything?

In any case, it is slowing down in the US in aggregate, there is no other reasonable way to read the figures.  I think the concern is that it hasn't slowed down sufficiently enough to reopen the economy without re-igniting it back into uncontrolled NYC-style conflagration.

[Sheilbh]

Well also no-one else has tried to re-open when it's slowing down. Everyone else has been waiting until it's on a fairly pronounced downward trend.

[Grey Fox]

We're going to try it, apparently.

[alfred russel]

So, here's the thing. It's not just about the death toll.

Those of you talking about the death toll as if that is the only way to measure what happens with this disease are just plain stupid. No, really. This virus causes 20% of those who get it to be incapacitated in some fashion for as long as three or four weeks. They could have a fever for well over 14 days. The virus lingers in the lungs, causing serious damage to many systems whether you feel it or not. Anyone with a fever for a week or long is having damage to their body, end of story.

This is not just the flu. You don't get this and within a week or 10 days, move on with your life. Even the asymptomatic folks are reporting serious issues weeks after they tested positive. And we have absolutely no idea who all has tested positive, who all this is affecting, or how. There is so little information right now that doctors and nurses are still mistreating people because they just don't have a reliable place to go for up-to-date care.

But you idiots go on and on about how it's just not that bad, that the media is blowing this entirely out of proportion, that we're killing our fucking economy over a "nothing" flu. Because numbers - that every single one of us has admitted are so far-flung as to be practically worthless - are showing you what you want to see.

Look. I'm high risk. If I get this, one in 20 like me end up in the hospital. One in 50 end up on a vent. One in 100 die. I'm glad you guys have no problem making those best for folks like me, but that's what you're doing. As my friend, an epidemiologist, has said, this isn't like not wearing your seat belt. This is like driving with a 0.12% alcohol level, and not stopping after you plow through the first car. You might not kill anyone, but you also might kill dozens.

Meri, the issue is not just whether to lock down and save lives versus not being inconvenienced in day to day life.

For example, opioid addiction has killed about 35k a year since 2000, and for each 1% increase in unemployment there is a 3.6% increase in deaths. If that is true, then the 20% plus increase in unemployment we are going to experience will more than double deaths - an extra 35k. (is that true--probably not--whatever model was used to make the claim will almost certainly break down in the extreme scenario we are facing--but the point is there are other consequences).

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2017/04/joblessness-and-opioids/523281/

The cancellation of biopsies is reducing cancer diagnoses, patients aren't being seen in the office by doctors so if primary care has any impact on patient outcomes that will be a negative, alcohol use is exploding, i'm sure depression and suicide will increase...Food security/nutrition has probably declined in many households, domestic violence is way up, education is just barely creaking along...they myriad of ancillary costs to this will be studied for decades.

[alfred russel]

3.85 million just filed for unemployment last week. In the last 6 weeks, we are over 30 million. The workforce is about 164 million, so that is something like 18% of the workforce.

We are tracking at just under 500 unemployed claims for every covid 19 death.

Whatever the unemployment rate is right now (hard to capture the data when collapse is virtually overnight), it is probably higher than any level since world war II, probably around 15% which is on par with 1931. Welcome to the Great Depression.

https://www.thebalance.com/unemployment-rate-by-year-3305506