Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Eddie Teach]

If we're taking sides on the question Should CC take a chill pill? I will join the yeas. Of course, that was true long before anyone heard of covid 19. 

[crazy canuck]

DG pointing out a mathematical issue isn't him claiming that the pandemic is no biggie.

It isn't a mathematical issue, its a point of conjecture masquerading as mathematical certainty worthy of Fox News.  The mortality rate in the US is currently above 4% and may states in your country are going to get worse because of premature openings.

[crazy canuck]

If we're taking sides on the question Should CC take a chill pill? I will join the yeas. Of course, that was true long before anyone heard of covid 19. 

Meri, here is another.  There are two or so more that have yet to come out to play.

[Zoupa]

Thanks for the article Sheilbh. Informative though scary.

[DGuller]

DG pointing out a mathematical issue isn't him claiming that the pandemic is no biggie.

It isn't a mathematical issue, its a point of conjecture masquerading as mathematical certainty worthy of Fox News.  The mortality rate in the US is currently above 4% and may states in your country are going to get worse because of premature openings.

It's an intellectual honesty issue.  When you know the nominal figures are misleading, you do your best to estimate the non-misleading figures.  More crucially, you should do your equal best for both numerator and denominator, and you should do your best at all times and not only when it suits your narrative.

[alfred russel]

But how much of that lower death rate (direct and indirect) is because lockdown has, generally, ensured healthcare systems aren't overwhelmed? And we will need to look at overal excess mortality not just the official covid figures to get a real figure in an epidemic. Measuring the direct v indirect fatalities will be more difficult within that.

Totally agree on the age profile - it is low risk for younger people and very low risk for children, but that doesn't mean there's no risk. I think in the UK 90% of the deaths have been over 60s so far.

But I don't think it's necessarily media sensationalism, I think it's probably at least partly a comms strategy to avoid young people thinking they're not at risk so they don't need to do anything when even if the risk to them is lower they are a transmission route (again, except, young kids possibly - Switzerland is now allowing young kids to hug their grandparents).

The concern about overwhelming medical systems - at least in the US - is past. To the extent it was a real risk, that was in the NYC area, and the temporary hospitals are being deconstructed and hospital ship sailing for Virginia.

I think we are recognizing different sides of the same coin on the "media sensationalism"--you are just calling it a comms strategy to get the young to go along with the lockdown; I'm less generous.

[alfred russel]

But how much of that lower death rate (direct and indirect) is because lockdown has, generally, ensured healthcare systems aren't overwhelmed?

One thing about people like Dorsey that annoys me already is knowing that if they survive the pandemic, they'll point to this fact as a proof that they were right all along and all the lockdowns etc. were all pointless.

You don't have to worry about that. I think locking down in many places was the right call to avoid overwhelming the medical system (I vehemently disagree with locking down places like India and am convinced the cure there is worse than the disease).

Were some of the lockdown rules stupid? Yes. Is it ridiculous to continue lockdowns when we are deconstructing the temporary hospitals and they have excess capacity? Also yes.

[Eddie Teach]

If we're taking sides on the question Should CC take a chill pill? I will join the yeas. Of course, that was true long before anyone heard of covid 19. 

Meri, here is another.  There are two or so more that have yet to come out to play.

I have no beef with Meri.

[merithyn]

Meri--go fuck yourself.

I'm good, but thanks.

[merithyn]

So, here's the thing. It's not just about the death toll.

Those of you talking about the death toll as if that is the only way to measure what happens with this disease are just plain stupid. No, really. This virus causes 20% of those who get it to be incapacitated in some fashion for as long as three or four weeks. They could have a fever for well over 14 days. The virus lingers in the lungs, causing serious damage to many systems whether you feel it or not. Anyone with a fever for a week or long is having damage to their body, end of story.

This is not just the flu. You don't get this and within a week or 10 days, move on with your life. Even the asymptomatic folks are reporting serious issues weeks after they tested positive. And we have absolutely no idea who all has tested positive, who all this is affecting, or how. There is so little information right now that doctors and nurses are still mistreating people because they just don't have a reliable place to go for up-to-date care.

But you idiots go on and on about how it's just not that bad, that the media is blowing this entirely out of proportion, that we're killing our fucking economy over a "nothing" flu. Because numbers - that every single one of us has admitted are so far-flung as to be practically worthless - are showing you what you want to see.

Look. I'm high risk. If I get this, one in 20 like me end up in the hospital. One in 50 end up on a vent. One in 100 die. I'm glad you guys have no problem making those best for folks like me, but that's what you're doing. As my friend, an epidemiologist, has said, this isn't like not wearing your seat belt. This is like driving with a 0.12% alcohol level, and not stopping after you plow through the first car. You might not kill anyone, but you also might kill dozens.

[jimmy olsen]

According to world meter (who counts by GM time) 2470 dead in America Tuesday, 2390 dead Wednesday.  Does not seem to be slowing down.

[DGuller]

According to world meter (who counts by GM time) 2470 dead in AmericaWednesday, 2390 dead Thursday.  Does not seem to be slowing down.

That actually does mean it's slowing down, and it's not a good way to measure it regardless.  Deaths are a lagging measure, they ramp up with a delay and they ramp down with a delay.

[The Brain]

I don't see how the US opening schools would lead to millions of dead school kids. In Sweden schools for grades 1-9 have remained open, and so far we have (thank God) not a single Covid-19 death among the under-20s.

[Eddie Teach]

(thank God)

[garbon]

According to world meter (who counts by GM time) 2470 dead in AmericaWednesday, 2390 dead Thursday.  Does not seem to be slowing down.

That actually does mean it's slowing down, and it's not a good way to measure it regardless.  Deaths are a lagging measure, they ramp up with a delay and they ramp down with a delay.

Does it though? Couldn't there easily be enough not yet deaths assigned to COVID that make both figures inaccurate?