Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[mongers]

....

From the ONS about 5% of deaths (to 3 April) that have covid recorded on the death certificate by the physician are in care homes, there are also a small number at home and in hospices. But I think the mortality is far higher than just that I don't know if we'll ever be able to break down deaths that are caused by covid, the deaths that are caused by a subsequent infection (this is just thinking about relatives of mine who have recovered from pneumonia but are weak for months after and even the slightest infection can really knock it out of them) and the deaths caused by "normal" illnesses/issues that people don't get treated.

So the deaths in week 14 were 6,000 higher than the five year average - of which about 3,500 were identified as covid. There's no indication of what the breakdown of the other 2,500 is - I mean it seems like most of them would surely be covid (I feel like that what must be causing the jump in deaths with other respiratory conditions too)? But then I do wonder about other conditions/people not getting treated because the government/NHS really seem to be pushing the message that the NHS and 999 are still there to treat emergencies, heart attacks, strokes etc - and there's been a 50% drop in people in A&E which can't all be down to fewer people on the roads/outside having accidents. But then even those deaths are caused by covid - if it wasn't for people not wanting to burden the health service, or not being afriad of potentially getting infected in hospital then they would get treatment. As I say it's all going to be "excess mortality" because of this virus.

But it's so awful to think that in week 14 confirmed and suspected cases of covid alone (so not including those above) were responsible for almost half the deaths in London - it must be at the moment one of, if not the biggest killer in parts of the country.

Last night's Ch4 news had as one of his headline stories an interview with a 'whistleblower' inside the office dealing with death certification in Southern England, it went into the details of the errors and omissions happening.

[Sheilbh]

+567 dead, which is a small tuesday bump compared to yesterday. However, roughly half the country was still on holiday this Monday so the figure probably still has some lag. We'll see tomorrow.

UK numbers have also been (comparatively) low over the long weekend - but I'm worried this is largely just lag or a prolonged weekend effect and there'll be a very high figure tomorrow

Similar excess mortality figures have been released in the Netherlands - they have longer running records so a better average than the UK - but week 14 showed mortality was 75% higher than average. Hopefully this will at least end the Toby Young's etc of the world who are still going down the "it's just a flu" line

[mongers]

UK numbers have also been (comparatively) low over the long weekend - but I'm worried this is largely just lag or a prolonged weekend effect and there'll be a very high figure tomorrow

Similar excess mortality figures have been released in the Netherlands - they have longer running records so a better average than the UK - but week 14 showed mortality was 75% higher than average. Hopefully this will at least end the Toby Young's etc of the world who are still going down the "it's just a flu" line

I think we need to stop 'giving' those people the oxygen of publicity like the networks have done with David Icke on the virus crisis or at the very least just ignore them.

[alfred russel]

I preface this by saying I know the USA has woeful testing numbers but am I reading that the fatality rate of reported cases is like 4.0%

Currently the US is 4.04%, however NYC has been having like two hundred excess deaths a day at home over the norm every day. So, yeah, it's probably artificially low.

It is way too high. I keep offering to make you bets on this stuff, and yet you just ignore me. I'm happy to make you a bet on this, and you can propose the terms this time.

I'm beginning to worry that you don't believe your own hype. 

[Sheilbh]

I think we need to stop 'giving' those people the oxygen of publicity like the networks have done with David Icke on the virus crisis or at the very least just ignore them.

Yeah. Though given that we've got Eamonn Holmes on This Morning saying about the 5G conspiracy theory that "it's very easy to say it is not true because it suits the state narrative". And even walking those comments back he's saying:

Every theory relating to such a connection has been proven to be false and we would like to emphasise that.

However, many people are rightly concerned and looking for answers and that's simply what I was trying to do to impart yesterday.

But for the avoidance of any doubt I want to make it clear no scientific evidence to substantiate any of those 5G theories. I hope that clears that up now.

[Grey Fox]

I preface this by saying I know the USA has woeful testing numbers but am I reading that the fatality rate of reported cases is like 4.0%

Currently the US is 4.04%, however NYC has been having like two hundred excess deaths a day at home over the norm every day. So, yeah, it's probably artificially low.

It is way too high. I keep offering to make you bets on this stuff, and yet you just ignore me. I'm happy to make you a bet on this, and you can propose the terms this time.

I'm beginning to worry that you don't believe your own hype. 

How would any side be proven right?

[mongers]

I think we need to stop 'giving' those people the oxygen of publicity like the networks have done with David Icke on the virus crisis or at the very least just ignore them.

Yeah. Though given that we've got Eamonn Holmes on This Morning saying about the 5G conspiracy theory that "it's very easy to say it is not true because it suits the state narrative". And even walking those comments back he's saying:

Every theory relating to such a connection has been proven to be false and we would like to emphasise that.

However, many people are rightly concerned and looking for answers and that's simply what I was trying to do to impart yesterday.

But for the avoidance of any doubt I want to make it clear no scientific evidence to substantiate any of those 5G theories. I hope that clears that up now.

Yes, shocking.

ITV should have 'sanctioned' him, say a month off air, no pay and a similar amount donated to the NHS appeal.

[jimmy olsen]

I preface this by saying I know the USA has woeful testing numbers but am I reading that the fatality rate of reported cases is like 4.0%

Currently the US is 4.04%, however NYC has been having like two hundred excess deaths a day at home over the norm every day. So, yeah, it's probably artificially low.

It is way too high. I keep offering to make you bets on this stuff, and yet you just ignore me. I'm happy to make you a bet on this, and you can propose the terms this time.

I'm beginning to worry that you don't believe your own hype. 

How can I prove I'm right if thousands of people are dying at home and they're not counted in the statistics.

[DGuller]

I preface this by saying I know the USA has woeful testing numbers but am I reading that the fatality rate of reported cases is like 4.0%

Currently the US is 4.04%, however NYC has been having like two hundred excess deaths a day at home over the norm every day. So, yeah, it's probably artificially low.

The numerator and denominator are both off, but hopefully the denominator is off by a much bigger percentage.  If you're sick with corona in NYC today, you'll be sick at home.  You're presumed to have it and treated at home accordingly, but you won't be tested.  Hopefully the death rate among those who are self-treating at home is much lower than the death rate of those officially diagnosed.

[alfred russel]

How would any side be proven right?

Pick a point in time--say end of the year--after which there has been time to assess what is really happening with people that are infected. Use the infected fatality rate estimated by the CDC or the equivalent UK or EU group at that time.

[Admiral Yi]

Made a quick loop for some errands (McDonald's breakfast  , Walgreen's for smokes and dish soap  , and recycling).  Saw a convoy of 10 Amazon Prime vans heading out of their fulfillment center.  The places I went had plexigas sneeze guards at the cashiers.  Most people were wrapping scarves around their faces; one dude had a genuine mask.

[Sheilbh]

Piece on funerals with coronavirus - one of those cruelties of this disease

'It's grief upon grief': the harsh reality of funerals in lockdown
Absence of normal rituals to say goodbye to loved ones can have profound impact
Harriet Sherwood
Harriet Sherwood Religion correspondent
@harrietsherwood
Tue 14 Apr 2020 12.38 BST
Last modified on Tue 14 Apr 2020 13.13 BST

On a cold, bright day a couple of weeks ago, a hearse drew up at a crematorium in Leicestershire for the funeral of an elderly woman who had died of natural causes. Six pallbearers hoisted the coffin, decorated with spring flowers, on to their shoulders and carried it to the catafalque as Vaughan Williams' The Lark Ascending played.

During a short ceremony, Sally-Ann Best, a civil celebrant, introduced music chosen by the family and read two poems. Between her, at the front of the crematorium chapel, and the funeral director standing respectfully at the back, there were rows of chairs. Every single one was empty.

It was a funeral with no mourners – and not for a lack of relatives and friends. The woman's family, most of whom lived 100 miles away, were unable to attend because of coronavirus restrictions.

They were among increasing numbers of grieving people who are being denied the opportunity to say a final goodbye to their loved ones, leaving celebrants, priests and funeral directors to stand in as "proxy mourners".

Best said she felt "very protective of the lady who had died" in the absence of family. "The words I was speaking seemed to be even more important; it was a massive mark of respect to go ahead with the ceremony even though I was the only person there."

The family told her "it brought them some comfort to know that their mum was still having a dignified and respectful funeral service".

Government guidelines, drawn up in conjunction with ethicists and faith leaders in recent weeks, permit close family members to attend funerals while observing physical distancing.

The Church of England has banned church funeral services, saying immediate family only may attend at gravesides, and that burials can be live streamed to other relatives and friends.

And a number of local authorities have banned funeral ceremonies in crematoria and cemeteries. Instead they are offering only "direct cremations", in which there is no ceremony and mourners are not present, and burial services at gravesides, with a maximum of 10 mourners observing physical distancing guidelines.

Some celebrants and funeral directors have called for an outright ban on ceremonies or clearer guidance, saying it is unfair to grieving families to have different rules applying in different parts of the country.

Maggie Kinloch, a registered celebrant and chair of the Humanist Society Scotland, said the impact on grieving relatives of being unable to attend funerals would be profound and last a long time.

"What we're seeing at the moment is a generalised sense of grief across the world – not just for those we've loved and lost, but for our own ability to get on with our lives. This veneer of grief is massively compounded when a family lose someone they love. It's grief upon grief. If you are unable to attend their funeral, it's yet another layer of grief.

"Families want to give their relatives the best possible celebration of their life, surrounded by people who knew them. The comfort of hugs and handshakes is hugely important.

"These life rituals are shared acts of community. We want and need people with us to mark these significant moments in our lives."

Michael Cooper from Durham was unable to attend his mother's funeral after she died aged 87 last month. The ceremony was livestreamed to him and other close family, but he said he was left with feelings of guilt and shame.

"You should be there at the end, and I wasn't. I felt ashamed in case other people were judging me. This is what was in my head – guilt and shame," he said.

"The ceremony was impeccable, except there was no one there who should have been there. I felt my mother was alone."

The funeral of Ismail Mohamed Abdulwahab, a 13-year-old boy from Brixton, south London, who died of Covid-19, took place earlier this month without any immediate family present after his mother and six siblings went into isolation.

Mark Stephenson, a friend of the family who delivered a short speech on behalf of the family, said the child's relatives were devastated they could not attend.

Cruse, the bereavement charity, said it had already been contacted by people in distress over being unable to attend funerals, and it expected many more to calls its helpline in the coming weeks.

"The rituals of saying goodbye to people we love are really important. The added complication for those in grief at the moment is the backdrop of countless other unattended funerals, the constant noise of news coverage, worries about their own health, income loss, children needing home-schooling," said Andy Langford, chief operating officer of the charity.

"Some people are saying they feel so numb they can't express any feeling. Others find it comforting to know other people are going through a similar experience. Grief is individual."

I've found funerals just work - when I've been grieving for bereavements I've always been surprised how, sort-of useful, I've found funerals. I normally go in cynical but then find they really provide a focus for the grief and there's something very human in sharing it with other people. As the humanist lady said not having that or some other event before burial/cremation must be just grief upon grief for some people

[mongers]

Made a quick loop for some errands (McDonald's breakfast  , Walgreen's for smokes and dish soap  , and recycling).  Saw a convoy of 10 Amazon Prime vans heading out of their fulfillment center.  The places I went had plexigas sneeze guards at the cashiers.  Most people were wrapping scarves around their faces; one dude had a genuine mask.

I've seen a total of 5 masks sofar.

Also Yi, like me you're no spring chicken, so have you considered giving up smoking just for the duration of the pandemic?

Because this thing can aggressively attack lung performance, so giving you lungs some respite, might well help if, god forbid you get it.

[mongers]

I've found funerals just work - when I've been grieving for bereavements I've always been surprised how, sort-of useful, I've found funerals. I normally go in cynical but then find they really provide a focus for the grief and there's something very human in sharing it with other people. As the humanist lady said not having that or some other event before burial/cremation must be just grief upon grief for some people

On Easter Sunday I cycled out to a small rural church to say a prayer for a friend who recently died. Beautiful location, obviously closed, but outside the old gates, were two fresh grave sized piles of gravel laid out on temporary plastic. This in a rural hamlet of 200 or 300 people.

[Admiral Yi]

Also Yi, like me you're no spring chicken, so have you considered giving up smoking just for the duration of the pandemic?

Because this thing can aggressively attack lung performance, so giving you lungs some respite, might well help if, god forbid you get it.

Gave it about 30 minutes of consideration.

I don't think 2 weeks of tar-free lungs will noticeably boost my chances of surviving covid 19.