Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Syt]

https://www.france24.com/en/20200412-tourists-forced-to-write-sorry-500-times-over-india-lockdown-breach

Tourists forced to write 'sorry' 500 times over India lockdown breach

Ten foreigners who broke a coronavirus lockdown in an Indian town made famous by the Beatles, were forced to repent by writing "I am so sorry" -- 500 times, officials said Sunday.

The nationwide lockdown was imposed near the end of March, with residents permitted to leave their homes only for essential services such as buying groceries and medicine.

The travellers -- from Israel, Mexico, Australia and Austria -- were caught taking a walk in Rishikesh, where the Beatles sought spirituality at an Ashram in 1968.

Local police officer Vinod Sharma said they were each made to write "I did not follow the rules of lockdown so I am so sorry" 500 times.

More than 700 foreign tourists from the US, Australia, Mexico and Israel staying in the area had flouted the lockdown rules, Sharma said, adding the unusual punishment was handed out to teach them a lesson.

Police said they would direct hotels in the area to allow foreign guests to step out only if accompanied by local helpers.

Establishments that did not follow the order could face legal action, Sharma said.

Police have come up with unusual methods to encourage people to stay home to halt the spread of the deadly disease, including wearing coronavirus-shaped helmets.

But officers in some states were also seen in videos on social media beating drivers on roadsides and making people out and about during lockdown do squats and leapfrogs as punishment.

On Sunday, police said they arrested nine people violating the lockdown after an officer's hand was chopped off in northern Punjab state's Patiala district.

The group were stopped in a vehicle at a checkpoint and -- refusing to turn back as ordered -- hit the accelerator and smashed into steel barricades, officials said.

During the clash, one of the group pulled out a sword, slicing off a policeman's hand. Six more officers were injured in the attack, police said.

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to extend a nationwide lockdown that was originally slated to end on Tuesday, for another two weeks.

Some states have already extended the restrictions.

On Sunday, India had registered more than 8,300 coronavirus cases and 273 deaths from the disease.

[celedhring]

+567 dead, which is a small tuesday bump compared to yesterday. However, roughly half the country was still on holiday this Monday so the figure probably still has some lag. We'll see tomorrow.

[Sheilbh]

Spain does count non-hospital deaths if they are confirmed Covid cases, however with current testing protocols and capacity those are very little. Our daily mortality tracker is lagging in the most affected areas (Madrid and Catalonia) due that we're looking at an increase of nearly 200% of usual mortality rates ( ), but once it catches up we'll get a better idea. So far is showing excess mortality as being over 2,000 vs the number of reported Covid deaths.

God

I still don't understand how our various data sources are working because, from what I understand (and this is what causes the big lag on weekends) deaths aren't reported until the next of kin have been notified. So there's a lag which I think is corrected by the NHS releasing data by date of decease rather than date of notification, but then there are deaths in other contexts which have covid on the death certificate which is (and death certification as well as health and public health are mainly run by the devolved administrations) - so I'm not sure that Scotland have released anything yet. But there was an update on England and Wales today up to the week ending 3 April.

In that week there were about 6,000 more deaths than the 5 year average and over 20% of death certificates mentioned covid (almost half in London), and overall 3,500 death certificates mentioned covid. I'm not sure how much of the extra 2,500 deaths that weren't attributed to covid are just because the physician didn't diagnose it or if that's the other health impacts of people not getting normal treatment, not going into hospital (not least, because they're afraid of catching covid) even if normal times they would etc.

[katmai]

I preface this by saying I know the USA has woeful testing numbers but am I reading that the fatality rate of reported cases is like 4.0%

[Threviel]

The UK:s normal daily mortality rate is about 1500 so an increase by 6000 over a week is roughly an increase of 60% over normal.

That mortality rate is the whole of the UK, if Sheilbhs numbers only include England it's probably closer to 70%.

[jimmy olsen]

I preface this by saying I know the USA has woeful testing numbers but am I reading that the fatality rate of reported cases is like 4.0%

Currently the US is 4.04%, however NYC has been having like two hundred excess deaths a day at home over the norm every day. So, yeah, it's probably artificially low.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - this chart by Ed Conway at Sky - like the NYC one is very grim:

[mongers]

Another discrepancy with the figures, the total deaths which the health/death secretary always announces as deaths, rather than only hospital deaths, is that the real covid-19 death toll is likely to be nearly twice that headlined figure.

I don't know if that's a discrepancy with other countries - my understanding is only French figures include at least some care home deaths. The briefings I've seen they specifically refer to it being people in hospital and this is also true in the tweets by the DoH, such as yesterday's:

As of 9am 13 April, 367,667 tests have concluded, with 14,506 tests on 12 April.

290,720 people have been tested of which 88,621 tested positive.

As of 5pm on 12 April, of those hospitalised in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus, 11,329 have sadly died.

I think at the end of this we'll only know by looking at excess mortality statistics - and it'll be covid and non-covid caused deaths related to this crisis.

But this is one of those things that makes me feel this has spread further than people are expecting. The Scottish government have said that about 40% of Scottish care homes have had at least one case which just seems incredibly high. Similarly I saw that a hospital in NYC had tested about over 6,000 pregnant women as part of the delivery over the last weeks and found that 14% had it (of which 12% were pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic) - and that's only the antigen test so it doesn't capture people who have had it. It's the same with the number of prisons that have cases now - it just seems far more widespread than you'd expect.

Shelf, I wasn't talking about comparisons with other countries, but the task of counting all the deaths of our countrymen.  Besides France, Ireland and Spain do include their care-home/community deaths.

Also my 2nd point was solely referring to the health/death secretary, who hasn't qualified the daily death toll as hospital only.

[mongers]

I preface this by saying I know the USA has woeful testing numbers but am I reading that the fatality rate of reported cases is like 4.0%

On the BBC newsite there's a report by a NYFD medic on a 16 hour shift, he recounts going to a dozen emergencies, all die, most by cardiac arrest or have just past. His 16th case, they were 'grateful' for, it was a 'regular' suicide. In his view all the others were Covid-19.

Article here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52196815

[mongers]

Yeah - this chart by Ed Conway at Sky - like the NYC one is very grim:

Yes, grim indeed.

Just listening to a professor on the world at one radio 4, who said he punched those numbers into his graph, which he had already set up and was shocked by the plot. 

[Threviel]

Also, to put in perspective, this disaster puts UK mortality at level with normal Russian mortality.

[Legbiter]

The gameplan was just announced here. Restrictions on gatherings will be significantly eased after 2 weeks with many businesses allowed to reopen but social distancing in general will be maintained as much as is feasible. Schools will reopen, barbers, physios, dentists, etc will as well. Gyms, bars and restaurants are to remain closed though. Careful monitoring will continue and this is all subject to revision if fresh cases suddenly pop up. But we have now finally geared up sufficiently with regard to hospital capacity, testing and tracing to handle a second wave if it comes. If all goes well, the businesses still closed will open up later in the summer.

[Sheilbh]

Shelf, I wasn't talking about comparisons with other countries, but the task of counting all the deaths of our countrymen.  Besides France, Ireland and Spain do include their care-home/community deaths.

Also my 2nd point was solely referring to the health/death secretary, who hasn't qualified the daily death toll as hospital only.

Okay. The breifings I've seen where they mention the numbers, they're quite careful to say deaths of people "in hospital" or "who have been hospitalised".

From the ONS about 5% of deaths (to 3 April) that have covid recorded on the death certificate by the physician are in care homes, there are also a small number at home and in hospices. But I think the mortality is far higher than just that I don't know if we'll ever be able to break down deaths that are caused by covid, the deaths that are caused by a subsequent infection (this is just thinking about relatives of mine who have recovered from pneumonia but are weak for months after and even the slightest infection can really knock it out of them) and the deaths caused by "normal" illnesses/issues that people don't get treated.

So the deaths in week 14 were 6,000 higher than the five year average - of which about 3,500 were identified as covid. There's no indication of what the breakdown of the other 2,500 is - I mean it seems like most of them would surely be covid (I feel like that what must be causing the jump in deaths with other respiratory conditions too)? But then I do wonder about other conditions/people not getting treated because the government/NHS really seem to be pushing the message that the NHS and 999 are still there to treat emergencies, heart attacks, strokes etc - and there's been a 50% drop in people in A&E which can't all be down to fewer people on the roads/outside having accidents. But then even those deaths are caused by covid - if it wasn't for people not wanting to burden the health service, or not being afriad of potentially getting infected in hospital then they would get treatment. As I say it's all going to be "excess mortality" because of this virus.

But it's so awful to think that in week 14 confirmed and suspected cases of covid alone (so not including those above) were responsible for almost half the deaths in London - it must be at the moment one of, if not the biggest killer in parts of the country.

[Admiral Yi]

Are places that have membership fees, like gyms, refunding the fees while they're closed?

[Legbiter]

Are places that have membership fees, like gyms, refunding the fees while they're closed?

Most will just "reset" the dues you've already paid when they're finally allowed to reopen. I'm not even going to request it in my case, I just hope my place does reopen.