Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[crazy canuck]

So CC got widely mocked for putting all his faith in the BC CDC, but this article suggests BC is doing well in the pandemic (plus got lucky because of a later spring break):

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ontario-quebec-covid-19-1.5524056

Alberta also had a later spring break (or was going to - it wound up being cancelled), but I don't think our curve is that flat...

Careful, you are going to be shunned for being unamerican.

Is that the lesson you took out from this all?

I said the US wasn't doing enough.  It was true when I said it and it continues to be true.  Hard to hear I am sure.  But there it is.

[Legbiter]

The US curve looks about the same as the big 5 Western European countries does. The trajectory will be similar. New York will be bad but New Orleans and Detroit look terrible as well. Control measures will begin to flatten it out in a week or so.

[katmai]

I keep reading smug articles about how Sweden is managing this crisis with minimal shut down compared to other western countries, long after the UK and elsewhere have abandoned similar approaches. Does Sweden have unique features that the rest of us do not in this situation? Or do they just know something we don't?

brainiac can correct me (and sure he will enjoy that) but I believe they are contemplating stricter measures as they are having higher incident than the other Nordic countries that have been more stringent.

I have seen similar articles and went to seek out stories and saw a spike in cases over this past weekend.

[katmai]

The US curve looks about the same as the big 5 Western European countries does. The trajectory will be similar. New York will be bad but New Orleans and Detroit look terrible as well. Control measures will begin to flatten it out in a week or so.

Washington and California are on other end of curve because they didn't dawdle and shut shit down pretty quickly.

[MadImmortalMan]

I have a suspicion that the West Coast had it much earlier than we think it did. I had something nasty back in January that could've been this but maybe not.

Could be a lot of it already ran its course, or that immunity was higher in general due to the west coast's heavy interplay with Asia.

[Legbiter]

brainiac can correct me (and sure he will enjoy that) but I believe they are contemplating stricter measures as they are having higher incident than the other Nordic countries that have been more stringent.

I have seen similar articles and went to seek out stories and saw a spike in cases over this past weekend.

Sweden is interesting yes. The curve isn't terribly good-looking for them.

[crazy canuck]

The US curve looks about the same as the big 5 Western European countries does. The trajectory will be similar. New York will be bad but New Orleans and Detroit look terrible as well. Control measures will begin to flatten it out in a week or so.

Washington and California are on other end of curve because they didn't dawdle and shut shit down pretty quickly.

Yep, and that makes the rest of the US look good.  It makes no sense to talk about a US curve.  It makes more sense to worry about all the states that are not doing what they should.

[Threviel]

Sweden's curve is mostly bad because of early mistakes, mostly that strict measures to keep Corona out of the elder care homes weren't enacted. A lot of elder care homes has been hit by the disease.

[Threviel]

Ohh, and to date 591 Swedes have died from Covid-19, from the first infection at the end of February.

In a normal pre-corona day in Sweden about 250 people die, so a mortality increase of about 5-10% in total. Right now about 40 corona deaths each day. Swedish health care is coping well, emergency hospitals have not been used and number of people in intensive care is decreasing.

I imagine that future statistical analysis will show a larger mortality increase, since presumably lots of deaths occur where no tests are done.

[Josquius]

Switzerland is looking great. Not just new case rates but actual numbers of cases in decline 🇨🇭

[celedhring]

France's GDP down 6% in the first quarter. That includes just 2 weeks of lockdown...

[Sheilbh]

Has anyone seen anything on how health services are planning to exit lockdown? In England the NHS have freed up over 30,000 beds and part of that is through hugely reduced A&E as a consequence of lockdown. But they have also cancelled basically all outpatient treatments and all surgery that may be essential but doesn't have to happen right now to free up ICU capacity.

I'm imagining it's the same in every other country and I was just wondering if anyone had seen anything about how health services are planning to presumably try and return to BAU but also keep enough spare capacity for any covid outbreaks? Or is there some other approach to manage the risk of future outbreaks and deal with people who still desperately need treatment as outpatients or for surgery?

[Maladict]

France's GDP down 6% in the first quarter. That includes just 2 weeks of lockdown...

France shouldn't have declared war, they're getting 1871-ed by both Germany and the virus.

[Threviel]

687 dead today. Stockholm is leveling off, but the rest of the country is increasing. All in all a leveling out.

Swedish tactics seems no worse than other countries so far.

[Fate]

Has anyone seen anything on how health services are planning to exit lockdown? In England the NHS have freed up over 30,000 beds and part of that is through hugely reduced A&E as a consequence of lockdown. But they have also cancelled basically all outpatient treatments and all surgery that may be essential but doesn't have to happen right now to free up ICU capacity.

I'm imagining it's the same in every other country and I was just wondering if anyone had seen anything about how health services are planning to presumably try and return to BAU but also keep enough spare capacity for any covid outbreaks? Or is there some other approach to manage the risk of future outbreaks and deal with people who still desperately need treatment as outpatients or for surgery?

Many US doctors, nurses, etc are getting laid off / furloughed if they don't work directly with COVID-19 patients. No one knows what is going to happen come June.

I think a lot of private practices and larger corporate groups are going to go bankrupt. My department's revenue is now down 75%. Since we're bigger than 500 employees we can't get access to the SBA loans. Maybe we'll get a bail out, but I doubt it.

It's a good argument for a NHS type system. Ya'll can keep your non-frontline medical staff employed for when normality returns. In Fee For Service systems like the US it all collapses.