Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[The Larch]

Religously, you say? 

Indeed. 

[Valmy]

Oh and on churches - I posted earlier about the Pentecostal pastor round my way selling "Plague Protection Kits" (£91 - actually red string and a bit of oil) and "Sacrificial Seeds" (£270 per person or £910 for the family - unclear what this actually is). Popping out for my exercise yesterday and I spotted that one of my neighbours has a piece of red string tied around their front door handle

Yeah the usual con artists are out in force. Your family can be protected if you just send money to me!

So glad those guys are tax exempt, fleecing suckers is a vital public service.

[Sheilbh]

Really interesting interview with the Professor from Imperial who published that model:
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/04/1586015208000/Imperial-s-Neil-Ferguson---We-don-t-have-a-clear-exit-strategy-/

Key slightly promising point on current UK trajectory:

Yes, if you keep the effectiveness of the intervention the same, a higher reproduction number is harder to control and you get a higher number of deaths if you make the same assumptions about interventions. But the thing which is also changing is we have some indication of how effective these interventions actually are, from data collected from the London School (of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) on how much contact rates have gone down, and also indirect data from people's mobility patterns, how much people are travelling — there's a whole range of survey data. And it looks like actually the interventions have been more effective than assumed in that report.

General concerning point for us all:

Obviously what we would like to find is a strategy which allows us to go back to — it won't be normal life but a bit closer to normal life, and suppresses transmission. That almost will certainly involve something akin to Korea, massively ramping up testing, and contact-tracing. But it's not clear even in Korea — and I've seen some of the analysis done there — that they can really relax all their social distancing and yet keep transmission low.

    So there is no master plan in the background being followed here. There is a lot of research being done in real time, which is feeding into policy, to try and work out: is there in some sense an optimal strategy which keeps the NHS functioning, allows more economic and social activity to continue than is going on at the moment and gets us through the next, frankly, 18 months? I don't know quite what that will look like or even if it's completely feasible.

    We don't have a clear exit strategy at the moment.

[alfred russel]

Specifically about the churches though-- just move to online services.  The one church that is a constant source of embarrassment around here is Solid Rock Church-- that's the one with the butter Jesus that got hit by lightning (I mean, come on guys- take a hint).  They are practically forcing the Ohio governor to extend his order to church services, which he has tried to avoid doing.

I'm all for religious freedom and everything, but I'd look the other way if they found some excuse to shut that particular church down for good.

There is a still a decent segment of the community that doesn't have internet access.

My brother is a controller of a small manufacturing company in bumblefuck georgia, and they are still going into the office, in part because he has a couple people that work for him that don't have internet at home.

[ulmont]

Wasn't there a pastor arrested for holding services against the curfew a couple days ago? In Louisiana or somesuch?

One in Florida and one in Louisiana, I believe.

[Barrister]

So CC got widely mocked for putting all his faith in the BC CDC, but this article suggests BC is doing well in the pandemic (plus got lucky because of a later spring break):

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ontario-quebec-covid-19-1.5524056

Alberta also had a later spring break (or was going to - it wound up being cancelled), but I don't think our curve is that flat...

[crazy canuck]

So CC got widely mocked for putting all his faith in the BC CDC, but this article suggests BC is doing well in the pandemic (plus got lucky because of a later spring break):

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ontario-quebec-covid-19-1.5524056

Alberta also had a later spring break (or was going to - it wound up being cancelled), but I don't think our curve is that flat...

Careful, you are going to be shunned for being unamerican.

[DGuller]

So CC got widely mocked for putting all his faith in the BC CDC, but this article suggests BC is doing well in the pandemic (plus got lucky because of a later spring break):

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ontario-quebec-covid-19-1.5524056

Alberta also had a later spring break (or was going to - it wound up being cancelled), but I don't think our curve is that flat...

Careful, you are going to be shunned for being unamerican.

Is that the lesson you took out from this all?

[Eddie Teach]

Shouldn't Canadian Spring Break happen in late June/early July?

[11B4V]

So CC got widely mocked for putting all his faith in the BC CDC, but this article suggests BC is doing well in the pandemic (plus got lucky because of a later spring break):

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ontario-quebec-covid-19-1.5524056

Alberta also had a later spring break (or was going to - it wound up being cancelled), but I don't think our curve is that flat...

Careful, you are going to be shunned for being unamerican.

Breakdown?

[Camerus]

I keep reading smug articles about how Sweden is managing this crisis with minimal shut down compared to other western countries, long after the UK and elsewhere have abandoned similar approaches. Does Sweden have unique features that the rest of us do not in this situation? Or do they just know something we don't?

[11B4V]

I keep reading smug articles about how Sweden is managing this crisis with minimal shut down compared to other western countries, long after the UK and elsewhere have abandoned similar approaches. Does Sweden have unique features that the rest of us do not in this situation? Or do they just know something we don't?

They have a bikini team.

[MadImmortalMan]

Low population density has many advantages.

[mongers]

I keep reading smug articles about how Sweden is managing this crisis with minimal shut down compared to other western countries, long after the UK and elsewhere have abandoned similar approaches. Does Sweden have unique features that the rest of us do not in this situation? Or do they just know something we don't?

Or they may not know something we don't know either.

[mongers]

The number out of the US are rather worrying, currently Spain, Italy and France seem to be getting 5,000 new cases a day with deaths in the 600-1000 range a day for the last few days, but the US has just breached the 1,000 deaths in a day and daily new cases are around 30,000 for each of the last few days.