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Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

Started by Syt, January 18, 2020, 09:36:09 AM

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The Larch


Valmy

Quote from: Sheilbh on April 07, 2020, 01:19:17 PM
Oh and on churches - I posted earlier about the Pentecostal pastor round my way selling "Plague Protection Kits" (£91 - actually red string and a bit of oil) and "Sacrificial Seeds" (£270 per person or £910 for the family - unclear what this actually is). Popping out for my exercise yesterday and I spotted that one of my neighbours has a piece of red string tied around their front door handle :( :ph34r:

Yeah the usual con artists are out in force. Your family can be protected if you just send money to me!

So glad those guys are tax exempt, fleecing suckers is a vital public service.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Sheilbh

Really interesting interview with the Professor from Imperial who published that model:
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/04/1586015208000/Imperial-s-Neil-Ferguson---We-don-t-have-a-clear-exit-strategy-/

Key slightly promising point on current UK trajectory:
QuoteYes, if you keep the effectiveness of the intervention the same, a higher reproduction number is harder to control and you get a higher number of deaths if you make the same assumptions about interventions. But the thing which is also changing is we have some indication of how effective these interventions actually are, from data collected from the London School (of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine) on how much contact rates have gone down, and also indirect data from people's mobility patterns, how much people are travelling — there's a whole range of survey data. And it looks like actually the interventions have been more effective than assumed in that report.

General concerning point for us all:
QuoteObviously what we would like to find is a strategy which allows us to go back to — it won't be normal life but a bit closer to normal life, and suppresses transmission. That almost will certainly involve something akin to Korea, massively ramping up testing, and contact-tracing. But it's not clear even in Korea — and I've seen some of the analysis done there — that they can really relax all their social distancing and yet keep transmission low.

    So there is no master plan in the background being followed here. There is a lot of research being done in real time, which is feeding into policy, to try and work out: is there in some sense an optimal strategy which keeps the NHS functioning, allows more economic and social activity to continue than is going on at the moment and gets us through the next, frankly, 18 months? I don't know quite what that will look like or even if it's completely feasible.

    We don't have a clear exit strategy at the moment.
Let's bomb Russia!

alfred russel

Quote from: derspiess on April 07, 2020, 08:43:23 AM
Specifically about the churches though-- just move to online services.  The one church that is a constant source of embarrassment around here is Solid Rock Church-- that's the one with the butter Jesus that got hit by lightning (I mean, come on guys- take a hint).  They are practically forcing the Ohio governor to extend his order to church services, which he has tried to avoid doing.

I'm all for religious freedom and everything, but I'd look the other way if they found some excuse to shut that particular church down for good.

There is a still a decent segment of the community that doesn't have internet access.

My brother is a controller of a small manufacturing company in bumblefuck georgia, and they are still going into the office, in part because he has a couple people that work for him that don't have internet at home.
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

ulmont

Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 07, 2020, 11:47:18 AM
Wasn't there a pastor arrested for holding services against the curfew a couple days ago? In Louisiana or somesuch?

One in Florida and one in Louisiana, I believe.

Barrister

So CC got widely mocked for putting all his faith in the BC CDC, but this article suggests BC is doing well in the pandemic (plus got lucky because of a later spring break):

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ontario-quebec-covid-19-1.5524056

Alberta also had a later spring break (or was going to - it wound up being cancelled), but I don't think our curve is that flat...
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

crazy canuck

Quote from: Barrister on April 07, 2020, 05:17:27 PM
So CC got widely mocked for putting all his faith in the BC CDC, but this article suggests BC is doing well in the pandemic (plus got lucky because of a later spring break):

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ontario-quebec-covid-19-1.5524056

Alberta also had a later spring break (or was going to - it wound up being cancelled), but I don't think our curve is that flat...

Careful, you are going to be shunned for being unamerican.

DGuller

Quote from: crazy canuck on April 07, 2020, 05:44:22 PM
Quote from: Barrister on April 07, 2020, 05:17:27 PM
So CC got widely mocked for putting all his faith in the BC CDC, but this article suggests BC is doing well in the pandemic (plus got lucky because of a later spring break):

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ontario-quebec-covid-19-1.5524056

Alberta also had a later spring break (or was going to - it wound up being cancelled), but I don't think our curve is that flat...

Careful, you are going to be shunned for being unamerican.

Is that the lesson you took out from this all?

Eddie Teach

Shouldn't Canadian Spring Break happen in late June/early July?
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

11B4V

Quote from: crazy canuck on April 07, 2020, 05:44:22 PM
Quote from: Barrister on April 07, 2020, 05:17:27 PM
So CC got widely mocked for putting all his faith in the BC CDC, but this article suggests BC is doing well in the pandemic (plus got lucky because of a later spring break):

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ontario-quebec-covid-19-1.5524056

Alberta also had a later spring break (or was going to - it wound up being cancelled), but I don't think our curve is that flat...

Careful, you are going to be shunned for being unamerican.

Breakdown?
"there's a long tradition of insulting people we disagree with here, and I'll be damned if I listen to your entreaties otherwise."-OVB

"Obviously not a Berkut-commanded armored column.  They're not all brewing."- CdM

"We've reached one of our phase lines after the firefight and it smells bad—meaning it's a little bit suspicious... Could be an amb—".

Camerus

I keep reading smug articles about how Sweden is managing this crisis with minimal shut down compared to other western countries, long after the UK and elsewhere have abandoned similar approaches. Does Sweden have unique features that the rest of us do not in this situation? Or do they just know something we don't?

11B4V

Quote from: Camerus on April 07, 2020, 07:32:05 PM
I keep reading smug articles about how Sweden is managing this crisis with minimal shut down compared to other western countries, long after the UK and elsewhere have abandoned similar approaches. Does Sweden have unique features that the rest of us do not in this situation? Or do they just know something we don't?

They have a bikini team.
"there's a long tradition of insulting people we disagree with here, and I'll be damned if I listen to your entreaties otherwise."-OVB

"Obviously not a Berkut-commanded armored column.  They're not all brewing."- CdM

"We've reached one of our phase lines after the firefight and it smells bad—meaning it's a little bit suspicious... Could be an amb—".

MadImmortalMan

Low population density has many advantages.
"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers

mongers

Quote from: Camerus on April 07, 2020, 07:32:05 PM
I keep reading smug articles about how Sweden is managing this crisis with minimal shut down compared to other western countries, long after the UK and elsewhere have abandoned similar approaches. Does Sweden have unique features that the rest of us do not in this situation? Or do they just know something we don't?

Or they may not know something we don't know either.
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

mongers

The number out of the US are rather worrying, currently Spain, Italy and France seem to be getting 5,000 new cases a day with deaths in the 600-1000 range a day for the last few days, but the US has just breached the 1,000 deaths in a day and daily new cases are around 30,000 for each of the last few days.   :(
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"