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Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

Started by Syt, January 18, 2020, 09:36:09 AM

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bogh

Quote from: Barrister on April 02, 2020, 03:37:30 PM
I'm pretty sure it's way too early to talk about easing off on restrictions.  Unless the rate of new infections is zero, that means the virus is still in the population, and will start spreading again w/o social distancing.

We can only realistically ease up on social distancing only once:

A. we have South Korea level mass testing and mass surveillance;
B. we have developed effective treatment or vaccine for Covid-19; or
C. substantial % of the population has acquired Covid-19 such that "herd immunity" starts to apply.

Well, assuming the current trend holds up, we seem to have slowed its spread so effectively that herd immunity will take a very long time. Vaccine and treatment is into 2021 and the economy and our society can't take 12 months of social restrictions at this level. So we will need to gradually ease up, accepting that infection levels will rise, but keep a lid on it to make sure we don't overwhelm health services. The government has officially said that restrictions will be gradually and carefully eased mid April barring a significant reversal in numbers. Whether that's wise is anyones guess, but sooner or later we will need to readjust to something in between current state and normality.

katmai

Quote from: Barrister on April 02, 2020, 03:45:39 PM
Interesting little story.  Canada and US reached a deal that banns non-essential travel across the border.

Canada implements the ban to cover all modes of transportation.  US implements the ban at land and ferries - it allows people to enter the US from Canada by air, rail or sea for any purpose.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-canada-u-s-border-1.5518191

I had a tougher interrogation entering Watson Lake, YK than i did at either the Canadian Border in BC or Alcan Border in USA
Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son

Barrister

Remember the Captain of the aircraft carrier who sent a letter begging for help as covid-19 spread through his ship?

Yup - going to be relieved of his command.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/military/navy-expected-relieve-captain-who-raised-alarm-about-covid-19-n1175351

Dude cared more about his sailors than his career though - that's gotta count for something.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

Josquius

Hopefully he gets reinstated next year when the US has sensible government again
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Barrister

Quote from: bogh on April 02, 2020, 03:49:20 PM
Quote from: Barrister on April 02, 2020, 03:37:30 PM
I'm pretty sure it's way too early to talk about easing off on restrictions.  Unless the rate of new infections is zero, that means the virus is still in the population, and will start spreading again w/o social distancing.

We can only realistically ease up on social distancing only once:

A. we have South Korea level mass testing and mass surveillance;
B. we have developed effective treatment or vaccine for Covid-19; or
C. substantial % of the population has acquired Covid-19 such that "herd immunity" starts to apply.

Well, assuming the current trend holds up, we seem to have slowed its spread so effectively that herd immunity will take a very long time. Vaccine and treatment is into 2021 and the economy and our society can't take 12 months of social restrictions at this level. So we will need to gradually ease up, accepting that infection levels will rise, but keep a lid on it to make sure we don't overwhelm health services. The government has officially said that restrictions will be gradually and carefully eased mid April barring a significant reversal in numbers. Whether that's wise is anyones guess, but sooner or later we will need to readjust to something in between current state and normality.

Personally, I think we really need to look at A.  Use this time to massively ramp up testing, so at the first sign of a cough you run to a drive-in testing centre and get your results within minutes.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

The Minsky Moment

Wallace Roney, one of the leading trumpet players of his generation, dead at 59 from coronavirus.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

alfred russel

Quote from: Barrister on April 02, 2020, 03:45:39 PM
Interesting little story.  Canada and US reached a deal that banns non-essential travel across the border.

Canada implements the ban to cover all modes of transportation.  US implements the ban at land and ferries - it allows people to enter the US from Canada by air, rail or sea for any purpose.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-canada-u-s-border-1.5518191

Ridiculous. It is in Canada and it is in the US. What difference does it make if people travel back and forth?
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

mongers

Quote from: Maladict on April 02, 2020, 12:12:05 PM
Quote from: mongers on April 02, 2020, 09:56:55 AM
Quote from: Tyr on April 02, 2020, 08:41:41 AM
In other news, the crazy contagion spreads:

https://abcnews.go.com/US/engineer-allegedly-crash-train-usns-mercy-los-angeles/story?id=69926172&fbclid=IwAR1PcHEzUQZXihaA8kM2fDcV_veDn34ssKJwpxWs471mgOQGZRhwEqEuqwY

I wonder if Sav will be as upset as I am about this:

It's not a train unless the locomotive/s have rolling stock or carriages connected to it.   :mad:

NB it's not clear from the photos video if the nearby container was linked to the locomotive or not, so I'm ignoring it to benefit the 'joke'. 

I was more upset about the ship being called a boat.

:D
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

mongers

#5123
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on April 02, 2020, 04:16:43 PM
Wallace Roney, one of the leading trumpet players of his generation, dead at 59 from coronavirus.

:(

It's looks set to decimate an older generation of musicians, Africa has already lost one of it's greats:

Quote
The African saxophone legend Manu Dibango has died in Paris after catching coronavirus. The 86-year-old fused jazz and funk music with traditional sounds from his home country,


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52017834
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

Zoupa

Quote from: alfred russel on April 02, 2020, 04:27:12 PM
Quote from: Barrister on April 02, 2020, 03:45:39 PM
Interesting little story.  Canada and US reached a deal that banns non-essential travel across the border.

Canada implements the ban to cover all modes of transportation.  US implements the ban at land and ferries - it allows people to enter the US from Canada by air, rail or sea for any purpose.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-canada-u-s-border-1.5518191

Ridiculous. It is in Canada and it is in the US. What difference does it make if people travel back and forth?

We fucking get it dude. Can you go be an edgelord somewhere else for a bit?

viper37

A nice CBC article on Doctor Horacio Arruda (of Portuguese origins, that might be interesting for Duque ;) )

Dr. Horacio Arruda is a media star. What's making him so popular?

Much, much, a thousand times betters than Theresa Tam as conveying national safety guidelines in times of public health crisis.
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

viper37

Quote from: alfred russel on April 02, 2020, 04:27:12 PM
Quote from: Barrister on April 02, 2020, 03:45:39 PM
Interesting little story.  Canada and US reached a deal that banns non-essential travel across the border.

Canada implements the ban to cover all modes of transportation.  US implements the ban at land and ferries - it allows people to enter the US from Canada by air, rail or sea for any purpose.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-canada-u-s-border-1.5518191

Ridiculous. It is in Canada and it is in the US. What difference does it make if people travel back and forth?
Spreading the contagion further if you happen to cross path with a non infected person working in essential services?
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

alfred russel

Quote from: viper37 on April 02, 2020, 04:55:44 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on April 02, 2020, 04:27:12 PM
Quote from: Barrister on April 02, 2020, 03:45:39 PM
Interesting little story.  Canada and US reached a deal that banns non-essential travel across the border.

Canada implements the ban to cover all modes of transportation.  US implements the ban at land and ferries - it allows people to enter the US from Canada by air, rail or sea for any purpose.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-canada-u-s-border-1.5518191

Ridiculous. It is in Canada and it is in the US. What difference does it make if people travel back and forth?
Spreading the contagion further if you happen to cross path with a non infected person working in essential services?

So families separated can't reunite and people on the wrong side can't return home?
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

merithyn

Quote from: Zoupa on April 02, 2020, 04:53:24 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on April 02, 2020, 04:27:12 PM
Quote from: Barrister on April 02, 2020, 03:45:39 PM
Interesting little story.  Canada and US reached a deal that banns non-essential travel across the border.

Canada implements the ban to cover all modes of transportation.  US implements the ban at land and ferries - it allows people to enter the US from Canada by air, rail or sea for any purpose.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid-19-canada-u-s-border-1.5518191

Ridiculous. It is in Canada and it is in the US. What difference does it make if people travel back and forth?

We fucking get it dude. Can you go be an edgelord somewhere else for a bit?

:wub:
Yesterday, upon the stair,
I met a man who wasn't there
He wasn't there again today
I wish, I wish he'd go away...

mongers

#5129
It's here, The Virus is in my small town:

Set out for my evening exercise combined with a little food shopping in the next town, on my way out 150 yards from here II passed an ambulance doing a pick up, on my way back an hour later came across another ambulance in a little residential road about 400 yards north of the first instance. 

I think seeing two ambulance pick-ups in a small town of 10,000, where I'd probably only passed by a couple of hundred residencies on the quiet evening trip, seems too high a coincidence for one or both not to be coronavirus.

And the first scene was outside a moderately sized care home.  :(
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"