Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Admiral Yi]

Straight line out from Oregon intersects the US ICU line (rough proxy for Italy) around 26 days out by my eyeballing.

[mongers]

Can someone do the math for me? Based on those charts, how long until Oregon hits Lombardy numbers? In days, please.

Assuming exponential growth, at present rate, it'll take 19 days to reach all of Italy as of today.  Not sure what the Lombardy number is.

Yes it's not looking too bad for Meri, even Washington is 11 days off of today's Italian level.

And as you imply Oregon looks like a good week behind Washington, so the 19 or so days is enough time to allow a forward thinking Oregon governor to start a lock-down today and be flattening the curve a bit before it hits Italian levels.

But delay more than three days and any advantage is lost as Italy is on day 15 or 16 of their lock-down.

[merithyn]

We're in a shelter-in-place right now, but few people are following it, so I'm going to guess we're not going to see that low number. Based on what you guys are saying, it's looking like around April 19th is the date to watch. Then what? Six weeks?

So, Oregon will be under water basically April 19 - May 31. Ish. Based on current trajectory.

[mongers]

We're in a shelter-in-place right now, but few people are following it, so I'm going to guess we're not going to see that low number. Based on what you guys are saying, it's looking like around April 19th is the date to watch. Then what? Six weeks?

So, Oregon will be under water basically April 19 - May 31. Ish. Based on current trajectory.

Meri, I'm only 90 miles from a city of 8- 9million that is set to implode over the next two weeks, as no-one seems to have a grip on slowing the bloody place down, we'll be overwhelmed by refugees in a month or two's time.

[DGuller]

We're in a shelter-in-place right now, but few people are following it, so I'm going to guess we're not going to see that low number. Based on what you guys are saying, it's looking like around April 19th is the date to watch. Then what? Six weeks?

So, Oregon will be under water basically April 19 - May 31. Ish. Based on current trajectory.

I think a lot can change in 19 days.  For the last couple of weeks, it feels like every few days bring forth a different world that you couldn't imagine just days ago.  I wouldn't rely too much on extrapolation holding up 19 days into the future.

[Admiral Yi]

26!

[merithyn]

26!

[Grinning_Colossus]

Good luck enforcing that 

Here in Sri Lanka, the police have already arrested thousands for breaking the 24-hour curfew.

[garbon]

Indian police enforcing lockdown.   

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ftUruURElk

Meanwhile in London:
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1242573124786413569?s=20

Pleased they're still at the persuade and police with consent, not enforce stage.

Seems like a nonsense phrase to me. I can think of a significant chunk of people who wouldnt say they have ever been policed with consent.

[garbon]

We're in a shelter-in-place right now, but few people are following it, so I'm going to guess we're not going to see that low number. Based on what you guys are saying, it's looking like around April 19th is the date to watch. Then what? Six weeks?

So, Oregon will be under water basically April 19 - May 31. Ish. Based on current trajectory.

Meri, I'm only 90 miles from a city of 8- 9million that is set to implode over the next two weeks, as no-one seems to have a grip on slowing the bloody place down, we'll be overwhelmed by refugees in a month or two's time.

Are we going to walk out of the city?

[Richard Hakluyt]

I'm very unsure about the wisdom of the 21-day lockdown in India, at least without arrangements to feed the masses. Put simply there may be too many incredibly poor people for it to be possible.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-52002734

[Maladict]

Government is saying we're already flattening the curve, number of comfirmed cases is dropping. Given we have the least restrictive measures in all of Europe and aren't testing on any serious scale, I'm somewhat skeptical.

[Sheilbh]

Seems like a nonsense phrase to me. I can think of a significant chunk of people who wouldnt say they have ever been policed with consent.

Fair, but it's the principle and the theory behind policing in the UK - which I think we should be trying to expand to all communities.

But that's sort of my fear is you've got police with a new power and a new thing to enforce - and I don't trust them to not abuse that, because I think unless they're on a pretty tight leash, the police abuse all of their powers. I don't want to see them roaming around the streets looking to enforce this against people - luckily there seems to be a bit of reluctance and a lack of resource to do that, yet.

Edit: Fast forward three months when the Tories decide Johnson's not got a grip of this and we're being addressed by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and a group of generals

[celedhring]

Government is saying we're already flattening the curve, number of comfirmed cases is dropping. Given we have the least restrictive measures in all of Europe and aren't testing on any serious scale, I'm somewhat skeptical.

What is with every single government trying to downplay this until it explodes in their faces? It drives me nuts.

[Zanza]

I'm very unsure about the wisdom of the 21-day lockdown in India, at least without arrangements to feed the masses. Put simply there may be too many incredibly poor people for it to be possible.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-52002734

What I wonder about in Germany and even more so in India is what the exit strategy is. How do we go from full on lock down to something sustainable that keeps the economy alive? I don't see such a plan here and I doubt that India has such a plan. Without such a plan, the current drastic measures may be for naught though if we cannot use the won time to create ways to fight the virus short of full economic meltdown.