Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Sheilbh]

Indian police enforcing lockdown.   

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ftUruURElk

Meanwhile in London:
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1242573124786413569?s=20

Pleased they're still at the persuade and police with consent, not enforce stage.

[crazy canuck]

Maybe you guys should start calling it the "Washingtonian Virus".

We try not to follow the worst of what you have become.
the essence of being Canadian:  We're not Americans dammit!

Not sure what you did there.  That is Dorsey's quote, not mine.

[viper37]

Maybe you guys should start calling it the "Washingtonian Virus".

We try not to follow the worst of what you have become.
the essence of being Canadian:  We're not Americans dammit!

Not sure what you did there.  That is Dorsey's quote, not mine.

that was not intented, sorry.

[mongers]

Corporate manslaughter convictions to follow?

More on the Australian cruise ship debacle:

Coronavirus: How did Australia's Ruby Princess cruise debacle happen?

On Thursday, the Ruby Princess cruise ship docked in Sydney with dozens of undiagnosed coronavirus cases onboard.

Almost 2,700 passengers - some coughing and spluttering - were allowed to leave the ship at Sydney Harbour, catching trains, buses and even overseas flights to get home.

More than 130 people from the cruise have now tested positive, making it the biggest single source of infections in Australia. One passenger died in hospital on Tuesday.

The saga has caused much anger: why was the ship allowed to dock and unload people?

Passengers have vented their anger over how the situation was handled by ship operator Princess Cruises and Australian authorities.

Elisa McCafferty, an Australian woman who flew home to London with her husband immediately after disembarking, told the BBC: "Nothing was said at anytime about anyone being sick onboard. It was a distinct lack of information coming through from Princess the entire time."

She only learned of the danger while collecting her bags at Heathrow Airport.

"I turned on my phone and I started getting all these notifications from people back in Australia saying 'there's been confirmed cases on the Ruby,'" she said.

"And I was just absolutely petrified. We had just been on two full flights - what if we had infected someone?"

She said she now had a dry cough, fever, body aches and fatigue - and they were self-isolating at home. They were also concerned about their elderly parents and friends who were on the trip too.
Image caption

Elisa McCafferty and her husband believe they may have got sick on the ship

Other passengers recalled coming into contact with sick people on the boat and said there were no warnings.

"I think that they let us down," said Bill Beerens, a Sydney man who tested positive for the virus in hospital on the day he disembarked.

"I do honestly believe that they [cruise ship management] knew what was going on and they just wanted us off the boat," he told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

Elderly couple Rona and Michael Doubrin said they had symptoms towards the end of the cruise but had not been concerned, because they had not been told to practice social distancing.

"People were going down to the pool, we were lying in the sun, eating in the dining room, dancing, seeing shows," Ms Doubrin told Daily Mail Australia.

"We would have isolated ourselves in the cabin if we'd known. We're not spring chickens - we're high risk."

What happened in Sydney?

After an 11-day voyage, the ship returned to the city before dawn, cutting short its final New Zealand leg as the nation announced a travel ban.

At the time, according to NSW Health, about a dozen passengers reported feeling unwell and they had swabs taken for Covid-19. An ambulance took a passenger to hospital. (The woman, aged in her 70s, died on Tuesday, authorities said.)

But other passengers on board weren't told of this. Instead, thousands streamed off the boat at Circular Quay, just across from the Sydney Opera House. The bustling area leads directly into the city centre, with transit links to the airport and outer suburbs.

Five days earlier, Australia began ordering anyone returning from overseas to self-isolate for 14 days - a directive which applied to the cruise passengers.

But the Ruby Princess passengers weren't screened and were unmonitored when they left the ship. About a third were international passengers - they were told they could travel overseas immediately or self-isolate in Sydney for a fortnight
....

Full item here:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51470603

[viper37]

First deceased in my hometown.  About 400m from me.  I knew his kids, I've met him a few times as I was younger and distributed the newspaper.
Apparently he was on a cruise, he came back and went into quarantine with his wife.  His wife is in critical condition and might not make it.

He's in his 70s like my father, and they knew each other.

It's hitting everywhere.

[mongers]

First deceased in my hometown.  About 400m from me.  I knew his kids, I've met him a few times as I was younger and distributed the newspaper.
Apparently he was on a cruise, he came back and went into quarantine with his wife.  His wife is in critical condition and might not make it.

He's in his 70s like my father, and they knew each other.

It's hitting everywhere.

Indeed Viper, really beginning to hit home.

[Fate]

Only bright spot in these looks like Italy. Starting to see some massive case growth rate in new spots like Israel and Ecuador. Louisana is also concerning because they have wayyyy less ICU resources than the NYC metro area.

[mongers]

Only bright spot in these looks like Italy. Starting to see some massive case growth rate in new spots like Israel and Ecuador. Louisana is also concerning because they have wayyyy less ICU resources than the NYC metro area.

Thanks for those Fate.

So the Italians took just 16 days to reach the Italian ICU limit and the US has just now reach the same limit have taken 17 days, only one day slower*


*less meteoric. 

[Admiral Yi]

So the Italians took just 16 days to reach the Italian ICU limit and the US has just now reach the same limit have taken 17 days, only one day slower*

I'm guessing by the US you mean NY, and by Italy you mean Lombardy (and Veneto?)?

[mongers]

So the Italians took just 16 days to reach the Italian ICU limit and the US has just now reach the same limit have taken 17 days, only one day slower*

I'm guessing by the US you mean NY, and by Italy you mean Lombardy (and Veneto?)?

I get your point, but I'm reading off the global comparison chart.

I understand you've identified those as hotspots, but that also means there an opportunity for the virus, to have them act as originators for contagion across the whole country, especially now as international travel is getting difficult.

[Admiral Yi]

I get your point, but I'm reading off the global comparison chart.

I understand you've identified those as hotspots, but that also means there an opportunity for the virus, to have them act as originators for contagion across the whole country, especially now as international travel is getting difficult.

The US is way below the US ICU capacity line on that chart.

[mongers]

I get your point, but I'm reading off the global comparison chart.

I understand you've identified those as hotspots, but that also means there an opportunity for the virus, to have them act as originators for contagion across the whole country, especially now as international travel is getting difficult.

The US is way below the US ICU capacity line on that chart.

But nearly all countries will breach their own ICU capacity, even if the US has ten times the per capita number that say Italy does, that'll still only buy the US an extra 9 days at 30% growth.

[merithyn]

Can someone do the math for me? Based on those charts, how long until Oregon hits Lombardy numbers? In days, please.

[mongers]

Can someone do the math for me? Based on those charts, how long until Oregon hits Lombardy numbers? In days, please.

DG will be along in a minute. 

Though I think there is one calculation we all need to make, what's the risks reward for getting supplies tomorrow to say cover an additional seven days versus shopping for them in seven days time.

How much worse will the risk be then vs now, but also the environment might have changed, our state country could be under a more 'sensible' lockdown? So should I go now or wait it out?

[DGuller]

Can someone do the math for me? Based on those charts, how long until Oregon hits Lombardy numbers? In days, please.

Assuming exponential growth, at present rate, it'll take 19 days to reach all of Italy as of today.  Not sure what the Lombardy number is.