Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[grumbler]

Secondly, doctors don't write things like "myself and my colleagues." (...)  This just stinks of fake.

The author of the text has reached out to the LA Times, who have vetted their stories. They work at the ER at Downey.

The LA Times has confirmed the story that the CDC has directed that ER doctors can test whomever they please, or that the county still can't test as much as the doctors would like them to?  The former would be news, the latter is already well-known.

I see a story in the LA Times entitled "Chaos at hospitals due to shortage of coronavirus testing," it is interesting that the ER doc used the exact same grammatical error about ""Myself and my colleagues" when speaking to the times and when sending the tweet.  Curious, that.  Maybe a non-native-English speaker, in which case my doubts about the tweet were misplaced.

[grumbler]

And yet....

I do appear to have overestimated the professionalism of at least one doctor.

[merithyn]

And yet....

I do appear to have overestimated the professionalism of at least one doctor.

Such a guy acknowledgement of error.

[Zanza]

One local cluster with half the cases, but other than that spread put across the country in Germany with small numbers of cases everywhere. Case numbers rapidly rising.

Switzerland more than doubled in 24 hours...

[viper37]

China reports almost all new infections outside Wuhan originated abroad

About a quarter of China's new confirmed cases and almost all of those outside the epidemic's epicenter in Wuhan originated outside the country on Friday, according to official data.

I wonder how they know this.

And who the fuck is traveling *to* Wuhan right now?

They way I read it, it's about the cases that developped *outside* of Wuhan.  That would be people visiting or returning to China.

Knowing this should be very easy, the person gets sick and/or tested, they identify where they have been before getting sick, tracking their movements.

As for this being the truth or not, I do not really know.  I'm not generally inclined to trust anything coming from China, but I may be just slightly paranoid.

[Admiral Yi]

They way I read it, it's about the cases that developped *outside* of Wuhan.  That would be people visiting or returning to China.

Knowing this should be very easy, the person gets sick and/or tested, they identify where they have been before getting sick, tracking their movements.

As for this being the truth or not, I do not really know.  I'm not generally inclined to trust anything coming from China, but I may be just slightly paranoid.

They have two separate numbers, one for all of China and one for China ex-Wuhan.  That means there is another figure for Wuhan itself.

I understand you could test a person and ask if they arrived from another country, but then you also have to rule out *any* possible contact within China.  Immigration officer?  Taxi driver?  Unless they were diagnosed on the inbound plane, I don't see how that's possible.

[Zoupa]

I doubt you'll get a response. Once grumbler loses face he tends to ignore the thread for a while.

  Don't ever change those judgemental ways, Zoupa.

Your inability to ever admit you were mistaken is immature.

[Syt]

66 confirmed cases in Austria. Flights to Iran, South Korea, Milan, and Bologna are suspended for 2 weeks, and so are the night trains to Italy.

[Syt]

It's grimly ironic that we're posting in a Timmay Syt thread that has a grossly understated title.

Also, changed title.

[Syt]

When I look at Austrian coverage it's a bit difficult to get any kind of feeling for what's going on here, and the coverage of other countries seems a lot more detailed.

[The Larch]

Apparently around 1/5th of Spanish cases have been traced to the guests of a funeral and their closer relations.

[Legbiter]

The South Korean epidemic is instructive, they've done hundreds of thousands of tests, employed extensive control measures and the total case fatality rate is around 0.6% so far. 

[Sheilbh]

UK cases up to 204, so up by about 42 which is consistent with the last few days.

So far we've not seen the sort of huge leaps that there's been in Germany and Italy. But I'm not sure why because I feel like there will be community infection going on. I suppose we might just be at an earlier stage?

Don't have a map but Public Health England have started listing the number of cases in each local authority area:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england/coronavirus-covid-19-number-of-cases-in-england

So far all areas with cases seem to be in the 1-4 area, so it doesn't look like there's any particular hotspots yet. My borough's got 1 to 4, but I think is probably higher risk than most because we've got 2-3 of London's biggest and most important hospitals.

[viper37]

I understand you could test a person and ask if they arrived from another country, but then you also have to rule out *any* possible contact within China.  Immigration officer?  Taxi driver?  Unless they were diagnosed on the inbound plane, I don't see how that's possible.

they are possibly using a simplistic model, basically, the infection originates from Wuhan.
a) Have you been in Wuhan recently (no)
b) Have you been in contact with someone infected (no)
b) Have you traveled outside the country recently (yes)

ergo, they were infected abroad.

It's most likely propaganda rather than scientific truth.

[Iormlund]

The South Korean epidemic is instructive, they've done hundreds of thousands of tests, employed extensive control measures and the total case fatality rate is around 0.6% so far. 

It matches with the assumption that mortality rate is around 1% (when cases have run their course). The reason other countries see much higher ratios is that there are thousands of infected flying under the radar.

Age and health differences could also explain the discrepancy, but I doubt South Koreans are that much younger/healthier than Italians. A third explanation could be mutations.