Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Zanza]

Yes. Which by itself does not say anything as obviously the absolute number of cases is also relevant, not just the reproduction factor.

gotcha

edit: or I suppose the better response given current social media trends  - thanks, understood.

They explained the numbers now. In the general population, R0 is below 1, but some isolated populations we have severe outbreaks. One major group is Eastern European workers in meatpacking plants due to poor hygiene in their rather isolated dwellings. This group has little contact with the general population.

[Sheilbh]

They explained the numbers now. In the general population, R0 is below 1, but some isolated populations we have severe outbreaks. One major group is Eastern European workers in meatpacking plants due to poor hygiene in their rather isolated dwellings. This group has little contact with the general population.

Yeah - there was an article unpicking this (Simpson's paradox) which is good:
https://unherd.com/2020/05/what-the-headline-covid-figures-dont-tell-you/

It's true here except the issue is in care homes and some hospitals.

[Barrister]

They explained the numbers now. In the general population, R0 is below 1, but some isolated populations we have severe outbreaks. One major group is Eastern European workers in meatpacking plants due to poor hygiene in their rather isolated dwellings. This group has little contact with the general population.

Yeah - there was an article unpicking this (Simpson's paradox) which is good:
https://unherd.com/2020/05/what-the-headline-covid-figures-dont-tell-you/

It's true here except the issue is in care homes and some hospitals.

Good article.

The problems in Alberta are not the hospitals (we were a couple weeks behind places like UK or NYC so they were ready), but the long term care homes and meat packing plants, which is where almost all news cases are coming from.

[Syt]

Yes. Which by itself does not say anything as obviously the absolute number of cases is also relevant, not just the reproduction factor.

gotcha

edit: or I suppose the better response given current social media trends  - thanks, understood.

They explained the numbers now. In the general population, R0 is below 1, but some isolated populations we have severe outbreaks. One major group is Eastern European workers in meatpacking plants due to poor hygiene in their rather isolated dwellings. This group has little contact with the general population.

Yep, including in the town where I grew up, and the neighboring district (Kellinghusen & Bad Bramstedt - you can read about it on NDR; there's rumors the workers were threatened not to stay home if they have symptoms and keep working to keep their contracts, and the company running the plants have threatened to sue if the state doesn't allow them to have uninfected workers from the quarantined quarters work the plants).

A few days ago a spokesperson for the meat industry said that if it became mandatory to have their foreign workers in separate accommodations per person this might prompt them to relocate their plants because the cost would be prohibitive.

[Legbiter]

Five days here since our last case. Roughly 53,000 people have been tested, over 20,000 placed in precautionary quarantine. If this holds we'll not merely have bent the curve, we'll have utterly crushed it in about 6 weeks.

[Valmy]

Five days here since our last case. Roughly 53,000 people have been tested, over 20,000 placed in precautionary quarantine. If this holds we'll not merely have bent the curve, we'll have utterly crushed it in about 6 weeks.

Good work Iceland!

[Barrister]

Five days here since our last case. Roughly 53,000 people have been tested, over 20,000 placed in precautionary quarantine. If this holds we'll not merely have bent the curve, we'll have utterly crushed it in about 6 weeks.

I guess it turns out there is an upside to living on a cold, remote rock in the middle of an ocean after all!

New Zealand and Taiwan have shown similar trajectories - that they might be able to eliminate the virus in their region.

But don't get cocky - South Korea was doing very well, but then one guy apparently went to a gay bar and infected over 100 people.

[Legbiter]

Yeah it could well flare up again. I'm personally assuming so in terms of personal behavior but we now have a nationwide system in place to very quickly deal with it. The Nordic countries are discussing informally opening up between themselves later this summer.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah it could well flare up again. I'm personally assuming so in terms of personal behavior but we now have a nationwide system in place to very quickly deal with it. The Nordic countries are discussing informally opening up between themselves later this summer.

The travel angle of this fascinates me. I'm really intrigued by the Anglo-French "common quarantine area" as something that might spread.

[Barrister]

Am I doing this math right?

16,000 Covid deaths in New York

NYC has a population of 8.4 million

0.19% of new yorkers have died.  That's one in 500.

[Grey Fox]

Is the 16k figure, City or state?

[Barrister]

Actually confirmed with the John Hopkins data, total deaths in NYC proper is 20,000.

For a death rate of 0.24%  That's one in 400.

Now obviously I'm cherry-picking the worst-hit place in America, but that's still kind of shocking.

[DGuller]

Am I doing this math right?

16,000 Covid deaths in New York

NYC has a population of 8.4 million

0.19% of new yorkers have died.  That's one in 500.

Yes, that's right, and it's probably higher.  NYC collects data on probable COVID-19 deaths as well, so that adds another 5,000 to the body count.  Thanks to NYC we have the bare minimum estimate of infection fatality rate of 0.25%.  Hopefully it really is the case that a quarter of New Yorkers have already been infected, and that it's not just bad math with false positive rates.

[Sheilbh]

Fucking hell

Railway worker and mother-of-one died 'after being spat on by man with Covid-19'
A railway ticket office worker who died of coronavirus after being spat at while on duty was "a good person, a good mother, and a good wife" who cared for everybody, her devastated widower has said.

Belly Mujinga, 47, was on the concourse of Victoria station in London on March 22 when a member of the public who said he had Covid-19 spat and coughed at her and a colleague.

Within days of the assault, both women fell ill with the virus.

Ms Mujinga, a mother to 11-year-old Ingrid, was admitted to Barnet Hospital and put on a ventilator but died on April 5, her trade union, the Transport Salaried Staffs Association, said.

Her husband, Lusamba Gode Katalay, said the suspect walked up to Ms Mujinga and spat in her face.
    The man asked her what she was doing, why she was there, and she said they were working.

        The man said he had the virus and spat on them. They reported it to their supervisor.

        Belly came home and told me everything.

– Lusamba Gode Katalay, husband

Mr Katalay said his wife had an operation four years ago and had underlying respiratory problems.

Within a week of the incident, she began to feel ill and was admitted to hospital on April 2.

    That was the last time I saw her. We just said: 'Be good,' and that God is in charge.

        We did a WhatsApp video in hospital, but then I didn't hear from her again. I thought she might be asleep, but the doctor to phoned me to tell me she had died.

– Lusamba Gode Katalay, husband

Speaking to ITV News her cousin Agnes Ntumba said the family was still mourning.

The union has reported the incident to the Railways Inspectorate, the safety arm of the Office for Road and Rail, for investigation, and is taking legal advice on the situation.

    We are shocked and devastated at Belly's death. She is one of far too many frontline workers who have lost their lives to coronavirus.

        Sadly, Belly's is just one of many family tragedies where children have had their parents taken away from them.

        However, there are serious questions about her death; it wasn't inevitable.

        As a vulnerable person in the 'at risk' category, and her condition known to her employer, there are questions about why she wasn't stood down from frontline duties early on in this pandemic.

        Rather than talking about the easing the lockdown, the Government must first ensure that the right precautions and protections have been taken so that more lives are not lost.

        Our rail industry needs to have a very serious look at what tasks are deemed 'essential' and must put protections in place for all our members and our passengers.

– Manuel Cortes, TSSA

British Transport Police are now investigating, although it is believed a complaint was not registered with them at the time, despite Ms Mujinga and her colleague asking staff at employers Govia Thameslink Railway to contact police, the union said.

    British Transport Police have now launched an investigation into a report of two members of rail staff being spat at while working at London Victoria station on March 22.

        Anyone with information is asked to contact BTP by texting 61016 or calling 0800 40 50 40 and quoting reference 359 of 11/05/20.

– British Transport Police

A spokesperson for Prime Minister Boris Johnson called the incident "despicable".

"It is despicable for a key worker to be attacked in this way while serving the travelling public," the spokesperson said.

"Our thoughts are with Mrs Mujinga family's at this terrible time."
Last updated Tue 12 May 2020

https://www.itv.com/news/london/2020-05-12/station-ticket-office-worker-dies-with-covid-19-after-being-spat-at/

And the comment about not being able to see her again is just heart-breaking - one of the really horrible parts of this disease.

[The Larch]

Yeah it could well flare up again. I'm personally assuming so in terms of personal behavior but we now have a nationwide system in place to very quickly deal with it. The Nordic countries are discussing informally opening up between themselves later this summer.

The travel angle of this fascinates me. I'm really intrigued by the Anglo-French "common quarantine area" as something that might spread.

There are another couple of initiatives going on, the first one was a "touristic corridor" or somesuch, between Germany, Austria, Slovenia and I can't remember if Italy or Croatia, and lately another one between Spain, France, Germany and Italy to allow free movement without quarantines for the summer. Over here we'll start with 14 days quarantines for whoever comes from abroad, with very few exceptions (trans-border workers and so). The EU has just announced that it'll be coordinating these localized border reopenings with a view to salvaging at least in part the summer season for tourism.

Apparently the regional government of the Balearic Islands has been receiving pressure from Germans owning 2nd homes there to be allowed to go to them.