Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Razgovory]

Harvard University epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch is predicting the coronavirus "will ultimately not be containable" and, within a year, will infect somewhere between 40 and 70 percent of humanity, The Atlantic reports. But don't be too alarmed. Many of those people, Lipsitch clarifies, won't have severe illnesses or even show symptoms at all, which is already the case for many people who have tested positive for the virus.

https://theweek.com/speedreads/897799/harvard-scientist-predicts-coronavirus-infect-70-percent-humanity

Spanish Flu did roughly the same thing.

Thanks.  I admit I was hoping you made that number up.  If it only affects 4% of the population of the US and the mortality rate stays the same that would still be nearly 400000 deaths.

[mongers]

Harvard University epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch is predicting the coronavirus "will ultimately not be containable" and, within a year, will infect somewhere between 40 and 70 percent of humanity, The Atlantic reports. But don't be too alarmed. Many of those people, Lipsitch clarifies, won't have severe illnesses or even show symptoms at all, which is already the case for many people who have tested positive for the virus.

https://theweek.com/speedreads/897799/harvard-scientist-predicts-coronavirus-infect-70-percent-humanity

Spanish Flu did roughly the same thing.

Thanks.  I admit I was hoping you made that number up.

I also heard the 60% potential infections from a leading virologist on the news last week. 

[mongers]

Syt posted this topic over a month ago.  How long has this virus been out there?  Are we getting fucked over because the Chinese tried to hide this to save face?

I've been wondering what the timeline is expected to be before it's crossed the seven seas and infected the seven continents. And eventually blown through.

Will it be faster or slower than the Spanish Flu? That took a little over a year before the deaths slowed down significantly.

It's already incredibly fast. Containment chances are dwindling so that works out to around 40-60% of humanity will get infected in the next year and a half if control measures are not implemented. We need to drastically pare down our local contact networks and be extremely meticulous with frequent hand washing during the day. Avoid crowds as much as possible. If containment fails completely then only changes in social behaviour will bring the R0 down.

The one silver lining to this crisis might be that it puts an end to the pointless insistence on hugging by relative strangers, especially prevalent among progressive people.   

[mongers]

BBC Persian service is reporting this:

Coronavirus: Iran's deaths at least 210, hospital sources say

At least 210 people in Iran have died as a result of the new coronavirus disease, sources in the country's health system have told BBC Persian.

Most of the victims are from the capital, Tehran, and the city of Qom, where cases of Covid-19 first emerged.

The figure is six times higher than the official death toll of 34 given by the health ministry earlier on Friday.

Ministry spokesman Kianoush Jahanpour insisted it was being transparent and accused the BBC of spreading lies.

It comes after a member of parliament for Qom accused the authorities of a cover-up and the US expressed concern that they may not be sharing information.
.....

[Iormlund]

Thanks.  I admit I was hoping you made that number up.  If it only affects 4% of the population of the US and the mortality rate stays the same that would still be nearly 400000 deaths.

If there are tens of millions of infected at a time it seems rather unlikely that the mortality rate will stay the same. That'd require a lot of ICU staff, beds and respirators.

[jimmy olsen]

It better not pick up this coming week in London. I'd like to get my relatives in and out for my wedding without incident.

You're getting married!?

That's wonderful.

In economic news, we're boned.

https://twitter.com/TomOrlik/status/1233559208278319105

hina manufacturing PMI 35.7 in February

That's a record low - in the 2008 financial crisis it was 38.8

...China services PMI 29.6 in February - also a record low

[viper37]

Our tax dollars at work.  And leftists wonder why I'm against giving more power to the government.

No, I wonder why you think any government would be as incompetent as your current government.

Well, if Trudeau was to make a speech about how he has everything under control and said something like "just watch me", I'd be really worried too. 

Exactly, we can have more confidence given the actions of the Health Minister

Not sure I trust anyone from this cabinet, but I have a certain faith in the health agencies responsible for coordination.

However, our security measures at the border are clearly insufficient.

[Syt]

7th case in Austria. So far it's only been people who were recently in Northern Italy. Considering the incubation period, I guess the case numbers will rise in the next few weeks once infections that happened in Austria pop up.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Harvard University epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch is predicting the coronavirus "will ultimately not be containable" and, within a year, will infect somewhere between 40 and 70 percent of humanity, The Atlantic reports. But don't be too alarmed. Many of those people, Lipsitch clarifies, won't have severe illnesses or even show symptoms at all, which is already the case for many people who have tested positive for the virus.

https://theweek.com/speedreads/897799/harvard-scientist-predicts-coronavirus-infect-70-percent-humanity

Spanish Flu did roughly the same thing.

Thanks.  I admit I was hoping you made that number up.

I also heard the 60% potential infections from a leading virologist on the news last week.

Oddly enough 60% was the figure I scribbled on the back of an envelope last week 

4 billion infections would imply between 80 and 100m deaths. But there is also the 80% of people who get really light symptoms; this helps the virus spread but I'm hoping will lead to a much lower death toll. On the downside there is also the possibility of the virus mutating leading to repeated waves of infection.

What with this, the governments of many Western countries being led by authoritarian wankers, the fires in Australia etc etc..........it can feel like we are living in a dystopian science fiction novel written by a particularly miserable British author.

[Syt]

I recently finished Chuck Wendig's Wanderers which was about a disease from bats that wiped out humanity.

Only it was a fungal parasite, not a virus, and the transmissive incubation time was 2 months, not two weeks.

[Syt]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1233516512830459908?s=20

"We're ordering a lot of supplies. We're ordering a lot of, uh, elements that frankly we wouldn't be ordering unless it was something like this. But we're ordering a lot of different elements of medical." -- The President of the United States of America.

[Razgovory]

I recently finished kind and sensitive person Wendig's Wanderers which was about a disease from bats that wiped out humanity.

Only it was a fungal parasite, not a virus, and the transmissive incubation time was 2 months, not two weeks.

I am willing to bet that you actually meant "Chuck".

[Syt]

Yes

[Razgovory]

Apparently the Trump administration is looking at some emergency measures.  Such as tax cuts, removing tariffs on Chinese goods and more deregulation.  No idea what they want to do about the virus, but I'm sure they'll come around to addressing it.  They are also putting rules in place that all federal communications must go through the White House.  Apparently Trump wasn't happy with his press conference where the scientists and government employed contradicted Trump's statements right in front of him.

[Sheilbh]

Apparently all A&Es in the UK now have testing "pods" which are outside the A&E to avoid spreading it but can take tests for it.

One of the issues with it is apparently the disease still needs a test to be collected, then sent to a lab for results. I think the UK and other countries are putting funding up to try and get some form of bedside/hospital test developed so they're not relying on what are, I imagine, a limited number of labs.