US-Iran War Has Begun! Iran launches dozens of ballistic missiles!

[Zanza]

I bet we will never hear any details on the supposed imminent attack that was thwarted by this assassination. 

[Hamilcar]

I bet we will never hear any details on the supposed imminent attack that was thwarted by this assassination.

What do you mean? Those details will be released ASAP, with Trump's tax returns, as soon as the audit is over.

[OttoVonBismarck]

The idea that there was an imminent attack makes literally no sense at all. He's a General, that sort of operational activity didn't require his direct involvement. Is it likely that he worked at a higher level, approving such attacks, and probably helping plan the more important ones? Sure. But the mission plan, the operatives, that would all have been commanded by lower level officers, who if the attack was imminent, would have already been given their orders and detailed mission plans that they'd be able to execute without any input from higher up other than the "go" order.

We'll see. In part it probably depends on how actually important Suleimani was to their network. But I did see lots of Iran experts saying not to expect anything immediately (maybe because there'll be a power-struggle now there's a big gap).

I think he was important 20 years ago when he got into his position, Iran was and is faced with a few stark realities. It is weak in terms of its conventional military, a conventional war even against a peer country would be disastrous (as the long 1980s war with Iraq was.) Iran also wants to influence the rest of the Middle East in various ways. Given its limitations as a conventional power, it saw value in developing a force able and capable of basically creating "leverage." You have elite soldiers who are good at training irregulars, and seed them around the middle east and then funnel money through these guys to irregular forces. They had been doing this for ages in Lebanon, and it spread to Iraq after Saddam's fall, and it spread to Syria after the Arab Spring, and it's been in Gaza for a long time as well (Hamas.)

From all accounts, Suleiman was really good at architecting and setting up the Quds Force, and other elements of the Iranian defense state towards getting this stuff done. But in terms of 2020, him being alive or dead is probably no longer that important. The important work he did was building out the structure of his organization and the mechanisms of action, and it's possible if he had been killed a couple decades ago he may have been irreplaceable to a degree, in that another man may have done a worse job. But he's been grooming successors and building out a trained group of underlings for ages. He wasn't running a terrorist cell like al-Qaeda, he was a General in a State actor's military force. Now, he certainly ordered and helped orchestrate what we would call terrorist actions, and was a piece of shit, but in the same way that in any other military, if a leader makes a lot of structural improvements and designs, those tend to live on after him. He wasn't out there conducting this stuff with his bare hands.

[Razgovory]

Will be interesting to see  what the Iranian response will be.

Since so far it has been nothing, I think it will be... nothing. Denting the side of an oil tanker would just make them look weaker than doing nothing and it's not like they can afford anything bigger.

We'll see. In part it probably depends on how actually important Suleimani was to their network. But I did see lots of Iran experts saying not to expect anything immediately (maybe because there'll be a power-struggle now there's a big gap).

Obviously they'll be doing everything they can to ramp up their nuclear program - looking at North Korea it's clear that from their perspective making a deal with the international community was a mistake. And now their vulnerability to conventional attacks is clear.

But you're right and it sort of links to Camerus' point. It's weird and difficult to predict because both sides will want to escalate/respond, but neither actually wants an out and out conflict. Given that I wouldn't be surprised if there was a lot of free-lancing in the response because that's more deniable.

I think this is different.  They didn't kill some nobodies out in the desert, they killed senior leadership in the government.  Trump just sent a message to the leaders of the country that their lives are at stake.  The US can and will kill them.  They also know that if they do what the US wants the US could still kill them, like Qadafi.  They know that any deal with the US is useless.  The Iranian leadership needs to strike back to scare Trump.  Obvious answer: attack an embassy.  They removed one US president and forced his replacement into submission, and there is reason to think they could do so again.

[11B4V]

Will be interesting to see  what the Iranian response will be.

Since so far it has been nothing, I think it will be... nothing. Denting the side of an oil tanker would just make them look weaker than doing nothing and it's not like they can afford anything bigger.

We'll see. In part it probably depends on how actually important Suleimani was to their network. But I did see lots of Iran experts saying not to expect anything immediately (maybe because there'll be a power-struggle now there's a big gap).

Obviously they'll be doing everything they can to ramp up their nuclear program - looking at North Korea it's clear that from their perspective making a deal with the international community was a mistake. And now their vulnerability to conventional attacks is clear.

But you're right and it sort of links to Camerus' point. It's weird and difficult to predict because both sides will want to escalate/respond, but neither actually wants an out and out conflict. Given that I wouldn't be surprised if there was a lot of free-lancing in the response because that's more deniable.

I think this is different.  They didn't kill some nobodies out in the desert, they killed senior leadership in the government. Trump just sent a message to the leaders of the country that their lives are at stake.  The US can and will kill them.  They also know that if they do what the US wants the US could still kill them, like Qadafi.  They know that any deal with the US is useless.  The Iranian leadership needs to strike back to scare Trump.  Obvious answer: attack an embassy.  They removed one US president and forced his replacement into submission, and there is reason to think they could do so again.

It is different.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I mean if I was an advisor to the Iranians I would say they absolutely do not need to scare Trump. Trump made a decision that was very likely very poorly thought out, and like I said unless we are really advancing a coherent strategy it's a bad decision. But, Iran retaliating is also an unequivocal bad decision.

[Zanza]

Trump now openly threatens to bomb cultural (!) sites in Iran. 

[Admiral Yi]

One site for each of the 52 embassy hostages.  That's some twisted shit.  Like Vlad the impaler or Mexican narco lord twisted.

[Syt]

Full twitter thread:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1213593965838163968?s=20

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
7h
Iran is talking very boldly about targeting certain USA assets as revenge for our ridding the world of their terrorist leader who had just killed an American, & badly wounded many others, not to mention all of the people he had killed over his lifetime, including recently....

....hundreds of Iranian protesters. He was already attacking our Embassy, and preparing for additional hits in other locations. Iran has been nothing but problems for many years. Let this serve as a WARNING that if Iran strikes any Americans, or American assets, we have.....

....targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran &  the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD. The USA wants no more threats!

[Eddie Teach]

One site for each of the 52 embassy hostages.  That's some twisted shit.  Like Vlad the impaler or Mexican narco lord twisted.

He should do one a week.

[Solmyr]

The idea that there was an imminent attack makes literally no sense at all. He's a General, that sort of operational activity didn't require his direct involvement. Is it likely that he worked at a higher level, approving such attacks, and probably helping plan the more important ones? Sure. But the mission plan, the operatives, that would all have been commanded by lower level officers, who if the attack was imminent, would have already been given their orders and detailed mission plans that they'd be able to execute without any input from higher up other than the "go" order.

We'll see. In part it probably depends on how actually important Suleimani was to their network. But I did see lots of Iran experts saying not to expect anything immediately (maybe because there'll be a power-struggle now there's a big gap).

I think he was important 20 years ago when he got into his position, Iran was and is faced with a few stark realities. It is weak in terms of its conventional military, a conventional war even against a peer country would be disastrous (as the long 1980s war with Iraq was.) Iran also wants to influence the rest of the Middle East in various ways. Given its limitations as a conventional power, it saw value in developing a force able and capable of basically creating "leverage." You have elite soldiers who are good at training irregulars, and seed them around the middle east and then funnel money through these guys to irregular forces. They had been doing this for ages in Lebanon, and it spread to Iraq after Saddam's fall, and it spread to Syria after the Arab Spring, and it's been in Gaza for a long time as well (Hamas.)

From all accounts, Suleiman was really good at architecting and setting up the Quds Force, and other elements of the Iranian defense state towards getting this stuff done. But in terms of 2020, him being alive or dead is probably no longer that important. The important work he did was building out the structure of his organization and the mechanisms of action, and it's possible if he had been killed a couple decades ago he may have been irreplaceable to a degree, in that another man may have done a worse job. But he's been grooming successors and building out a trained group of underlings for ages. He wasn't running a terrorist cell like al-Qaeda, he was a General in a State actor's military force. Now, he certainly ordered and helped orchestrate what we would call terrorist actions, and was a piece of shit, but in the same way that in any other military, if a leader makes a lot of structural improvements and designs, those tend to live on after him. He wasn't out there conducting this stuff with his bare hands.

That feeling when Iran has more robust institutions than the US.

[jimmy olsen]

So what do we think the actual odds are that Trump had never heard of Soleimani prior to deciding to have him killed?

I actually would not at all be surprised to find out that there was a standing order to take him out if given the chance, possibly dating back to the Obama admin.

Lets not kid ourselves here. It's not like this guy was some kind of legit military representative of Iran on some kind of actual and acknowledged mission to Iraq.

I've read that he never traveled in secret and Bush and Obama both contemplated doing and decided not to due to the repercussions.

[Maladict]

Trump now openly threatens to bomb cultural (!) sites in Iran.

That is some IS level shit.

[Hamilcar]

Trump now openly threatens to bomb cultural (!) sites in Iran.

That is some IS level shit.

Let's not forget the Taliban, pioneers of the "blow up giant Buddhas" genre.

[The Minsky Moment]

Trump now openly threatens to bomb cultural (!) sites in Iran.

That is some IS level shit.

]

It's a war crime under international law.