Flashpoint Latvia

[Jacob]

Guy who claims to have predicted Russia's invasion of Crimea - Paul D. Miller - says Putin's next play will be Latvia - Trump will have to decide whether invoking Article V for the sake of the Baltics will happen, determining the fate of NATO and Europe.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/16/how-world-war-iii-could-begin-in-latvia/?utm_content=bufferb76c9&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

What does languish think?

Putin has already succeeded in eroding NATO's credibility. His last two targets, Georgia and Ukraine, were not NATO members, but in 2008 had been explicitly and publicly assured that they would be granted Membership Action Plans, the roadmap to membership. Russia clearly and publicly opposed any steps towards NATO membership for both countries — and then proceeded to invade them.

Russia's invasions of Georgia and Ukraine created disputed territories — South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Crimea — occupied by Russian soldiers. No country will ever join NATO while being partly occupied by Russia.

Putin now has the most favorable international environment since the end of the Cold War to continue Russian expansion. European unity is fractured. Alliance members are questioning the value of the mutual security pact. And the next American president seems openly favorable to Russia and ready to excuse Russia's irresponsible behavior.

Putin's next step is more dangerous than the previous ones, because he is likely to move into the Baltics, which are NATO members. He will not send large formations of uniformed Russian soldiers over the international border — even the most cautious NATO members will not ignore an overt conventional invasion.

Instead, Putin will instigate an ambiguous militarized crisis using deniable proxies, probably in the next two years. Perhaps Russian-speaking Latvians or Estonians (a quarter of Latvians and Estonians are ethnically Russian) will begin rioting, protesting for their rights, claiming to be persecuted, asking for "international protection." A suspiciously well armed and well trained "Popular Front for the Liberation of the Russian Baltics" will appear. A few high-profile assassinations and bombings bring the Baltics to the edge of civil war. A low-grade insurgency may emerge.

Russia will block all United Nations Security Council resolutions, but will offer its unilateral services as a peacekeeper. The North Atlantic Council will meet. Poland will lead the effort to invoke Article V, declare the Baltics under Russian attack, and rally collective defense against Russian aggression. The Germans and French will fiercely resist. Everyone will look to the United States to see which way the alliance leader tilts.

If the Alliance does not invoke Article V, NATO's mutual security guarantee becomes functionally meaningless. No alliance member will put any faith in the treaty to guarantee it's own defense against Russia in the future. The geopolitical clock will rewind to 1939. Some Eastern European states may choose to bandwagon with Russia. Others, starting with Poland, will begin arming to the teeth. Putin's dream of a fractured West and an open field in Europe will be realized.

But if the Alliance does invoke Article V, it will be tantamount to a declaration of war by the West against Russia. And that's when Trump will have to decide if the defense of Latvia is worth risking World War III.

[mongers]

Guy who claims to have predicted Russia's invasion of Crimea - Paul D. Miller
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Snip
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Too soon after Crimea and more importantly I'd guess Putin will want to see an agreement over Syria inked with Trump before anything happens in E.Europe. 

[The Brain]

I somehow doubt a world war will start in some country in Eastern Europe few have even heard of.

[Grinning_Colossus]

The Baltics should never have been let into NATO, and their governments could preempt the whole crisis by just letting the Russian-speakers vote... but we need to uphold our commitments. If Trump disagrees (and there's really no way to predict how that would go), then I guess that's the end of the alliance.

[frunk]

I think it depends on how much domestic unrest Russia has over their crappy economy, and how big the existential threat Putin thinks he needs to manufacture to keep things in line.

[HVC]

Trump stands in the way? Bye Latvia, thanks for all the laughs and for buying old equipment from a company I worked for.

[HVC]

I somehow doubt a world war will start in some country in Eastern Europe few have even heard of.

People heard of them. They're the ones that tried to copy denmarks flag and messed up.

[derspiess]

I somehow doubt a world war will start in some country in Eastern Europe few have even heard of.

Better watch it or Berkut will pull out a high school geography book.

[Ideologue]

I got the joke, Brain.

Anyway, I really wish we hadn't invited the Balts into NATO.  For one thing, two of three of them are apartheid states.  For another, it was always an unnecessary provocation of the only other power in the whole wide world that actually has the capability of severely hurting the U.S., Britain, or France.  For three, Latvia is not important enough to our interests to risk a serious war over, in the way that West Germany was.

[Jacob]

I somehow doubt a world war will start in some country in Eastern Europe few have even heard of.

Sometimes you're really funny

[Jacob]

I got the joke, Brain.

Anyway, I really wish we hadn't invited the Balts into NATO.  For one thing, two of three of them are apartheid states.  For another, it was always an unnecessary provocation of the only other power in the whole wide world that actually has the capability of severely hurting the U.S., Britain, or France.  For three, Latvia is not important enough to our interests to risk a serious war over, in the way that West Germany was.

I think that sentiment is what Putin would be banking on.

[Ideologue]

Yeah, and he probably should.  Things I learned from the events 2003-2009: we can't save the world.  These days, we don't even have the right to try.

[Josquius]

I got the joke, Brain.

Anyway, I really wish we hadn't invited the Balts into NATO.  For one thing, two of three of them are apartheid states.  For another, it was always an unnecessary provocation of the only other power in the whole wide world that actually has the capability of severely hurting the U.S., Britain, or France.  For three, Latvia is not important enough to our interests to risk a serious war over, in the way that West Germany was.

After Slovenia and the Czechoslovaks they're probably the eastern european countries that are doing best.
That Estonia is very big on seeing itself as part of northern europe really pushes them our way.

[garbon]

Yeah, and he probably should.  Things I learned from the events 2003-2009: we can't save the world.  These days, we don't even have the right to try.

Not sure I follow that. We fuck up a bit and then knee cap ourselves which means we should just let everything go to shit?

[PJL]

I saw in a recent poll that only the LibDem voters would really support helping the Baltic countries against the Russians. All the other voters would be ambivalent or against.