What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[The Minsky Moment]

On the other hand, the media and twitterati do seem to have ignored his apology for stop and frisk as well as his hiring of chain gangs to make calls (I was dead wrong on that).

The Times ran a story about it but it's hard to take seriously. Stop and frisk was a core part of his crime prevention strategy during his entire long tenure as mayor and he doubled down on it repeatedly in the face of strong push back.  No after the fact, tatical, come to Jesus reversal gets that albatross off his neck.

[Admiral Yi]

The Times ran a story about it but it's hard to take seriously. Stop and frisk was a core part of his crime prevention strategy during his entire long tenure as mayor and he doubled down on it repeatedly in the face of strong push back.  No after the fact, tatical, come to Jesus reversal gets that albatross off his neck.

You misunderstand me.  I thought stop 'n' frisk would leave him with no chance in the primary, and that no one would buy his conversion.  Whereas what I'm seeing is that the news cycle seems to have passed it by.

[The Minsky Moment]

Ah OK

Anyways I don't think the poll is a statement on Mike's strength as a candidate.  The poll shows support for Trump invariant no matter who the Dem candidate is at 41 or 42%.  The only difference - very minor within the margin of error - is that the higher name recognition candidates get a slightly higher number then the lower name recognition candidates.

I.e. basically the poll is being answered as Trump vs. "Democrat" with a view marginal uncertains tipping over when they recognize the name of the Democrat.

[Valmy]

And whomever gets the nomination will be known to everybody by November so that does not really indicate anything about the election.

[Grey Fox]

I've heard Bloomberg ads*. Very self made old America content. His voice sucks.

*I listen to ESPN podcasts.

[Barrister]

*I listen to ESPN podcasts.

What do you listen to?

[Admiral Yi]

Ah OK

Anyways I don't think the poll is a statement on Mike's strength as a candidate.  The poll shows support for Trump invariant no matter who the Dem candidate is at 41 or 42%.  The only difference - very minor within the margin of error - is that the higher name recognition candidates get a slightly higher number then the lower name recognition candidates.

I.e. basically the poll is being answered as Trump vs. "Democrat" with a view marginal uncertains tipping over when they recognize the name of the Democrat.

I'm not sure I buy that Bloomberg has higher name recognition than Bernie.

[Valmy]

I've heard Bloomberg ads*. Very self made old America content. His voice sucks.

*I listen to ESPN podcasts.

Most of them are just generic voice over telling me "Mike can get it done".

[The Brain]

*I listen to ESPN podcasts.

What do you listen to?

[Barrister]

*I listen to ESPN podcasts.

What do you listen to?

ESPN has many, many podcasts.

[Sheilbh]

Does he have any kind of shot at this?

It's really hard to judge from up here because I don't see a penny of his quarter billion dollar ad buy, but it has had him moving up in the polls.  And it seems like the "ignore the early states, focus on Super Tuesday" could at least theoretically work.

But it seems ludicrous that what Democrats think they need for a candidate is another NYC white billionaire...

I mean practically he has moved up in the polls. I think the latest one projects him winning one delegate on Super Tuesday.

I think there's a route - Sanders and Warren come first and second in Iowa and New Hampshire and one of them wins South Carolina with Biden way off the pace. But that's about it. I can't see another route in for him and - I could be wrong - it feels like ignoring the early states, while tried and true for NYC mayors, looks like a bad strategy.

[The Minsky Moment]

I'm not sure I buy that Bloomberg has higher name recognition than Bernie.

That's why I said "almost exactly".  But Bernie really didn't get a high profile until 2015-16; Bloomberg was a name well before that in politics, business and media.

[DGuller]

I think the accepted wisdom when it comes to campaign strategies is over-rated, and mindlessly over-repeated.  We don't have nearly enough data to really understand what works and why given the number of variables involved, and furthermore what may have worked in the past may not hold up in the present.

[The Minsky Moment]

The one unalterable fact is that all Presidential campaigns from NYC mayors are doomed.

[Admiral Yi]

And that Navy Undersecretaries are invincible.