What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[The Minsky Moment]

We already have an example of what happens in the region when you go for the democratic multi-confessional state solution.

It's called Lebanon.

[OttoVonBismarck]

So I think Kushner is an idiot but I will say one aspect of his view is probably actually correct: he went into this believing the Palestinians have a diminishing position that only gets worse over time, so they should be inclined to take as best as they can get now, because in the future they likely get worse.

But is that necessarily true?

I mean yes their on the ground strength is weaker then it has been.  Israeli security is stronger, very few terrorist attacks come from the occupied territories.  Palestinians have less international support with people like the Saudis opening up to Israel a bit.

But demographics have always been the looming fact, and those trends haven't changed.  There's still the very real likelihood that Jews become the minority in the whole of Israel and the West Bank.

I actually think the demographic argument is overstated to be frank.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Under that logic, there would have been about a dozen successful peace deals by now.  Historically, the Palestinians have not accepted that logic and I doubt they will do so now.

No? I never said that the Palestinians were rational actors, or assumed they were. I think it's been obvious the Palestinians will never accept any negotiated settlement with Israel for a really long time. It's also true the Palestinians chance of ever having sovereignty over a lot of this land goes down over time.

That is definitely true, but unfortunately it's a disaster for Israel.

I mean Israel has dealt with worse and arguably is doing better now in terms of security issues than it has for most of its history. It's kind of like how everyone talked about all the reasons Russia was dumb to annex Crimea, that Crimea was going to be an economic drain, the price in sanctions etc. All of that is true, but Russia is never giving Crimea back, and ultimately it's fine dealing with the negatives. Israel is basically in the same place now with the territories it's going to annex.

[dps]

How about forgetting all these walls/tunnels/bridges, and just have a single secular state with free movement and full citizenship/democratic rights?

Too crazy?

Of course it is.  In the long run, and even in the intermediate run, you cannot have a democracy with a deeply divided populace.  Countries are not just arbitrary geometric figures on a map, they're clusters of people that share a lot more than they differ on.  Democracy doesn't magically make incompatible people figure out how to coexist peacefully.

I dunno, it seems to have worked out OK for the Swiss.

[Valmy]

Well they have a very decentralized political system. I guess a Palestinian Confederation might work

[Solmyr]

Where does Trump Tower go on that map?

[Oexmelin]

Pompeo gets angry during an interview on NPR. Cuts it short. Off the air, angrily says to the journalists American don't give a fuck about Ukraine. Challenges host to identify Ukraine on a map. Gets a fucking aide to bring a map. Host correctly identifies Ukraine. Pompeo storms out. Drops NPR from the press pool on his travel. Trump threatens to cut funding to NPR.

The government of the American Republic.

[Grey Fox]

On it's way to fascist dictatorship.

[Barrister]

Pompeo gets angry during an interview on NPR. Cuts it short. Off the air, angrily says to the journalists American don't give a fuck about Ukraine. Challenges host to identify Ukraine on a map. Gets a fucking aide to bring a map. Host correctly identifies Ukraine. Pompeo storms out. Drops NPR from the press pool on his travel. Trump threatens to cut funding to NPR.

The government of the American Republic.

You forgot the part where Pompeo fails to ask reporter to have their conversation off the record, so reporter publishes a story about this incident.

[Berkut]

Pompeo gets angry during an interview on NPR. Cuts it short. Off the air, angrily says to the journalists American don't give a fuck about Ukraine. Challenges host to identify Ukraine on a map. Gets a fucking aide to bring a map. Host correctly identifies Ukraine. Pompeo storms out. Drops NPR from the press pool on his travel. Trump threatens to cut funding to NPR.

The government of the American Republic.

You forgot the part where Pompeo fails to ask reporter to have their conversation off the record, so reporter publishes a story about this incident.

Also forgot the part where when Pompeo goes on about this, he accuses the reporter of confusing Ukraine with Bangladesh, which is just a straight out lie on his part.

[grumbler]

Pompeo gets angry during an interview on NPR. Cuts it short. Off the air, angrily says to the journalists American don't give a fuck about Ukraine. Challenges host to identify Ukraine on a map. Gets a fucking aide to bring a map. Host correctly identifies Ukraine. Pompeo storms out. Drops NPR from the press pool on his travel. Trump threatens to cut funding to NPR.

The government of the American Republic.

That Pompeo is an ignorant dishonest ass isn't news.  He's a perfect fit for the Trump cabinet.

He reminds me of the baseball manager in the old joke about the three envelopes.  Eventually, blaming your failures on your predecessors stops working.

[Eddie Teach]

Mind telling the joke?

[grumbler]

Mind telling the joke?

The first hit when you google "3 envelpes joke" uses CEO instead of manager, but the joke is the same.

A fellow had just been hired as the new CEO of a large high tech corporation. The CEO who was stepping down met with him privately and presented him with three numbered envelopes. "Open these if you run up against a problem you don't think you can solve," he said.

Well, things went along pretty smoothly, but six months later, sales took a downturn and he was really catching a lot of heat. About at his wit's end, he remembered the envelopes. He went to his drawer and took out the first envelope. The message read, "Blame your predecessor."

The new CEO called a press conference and tactfully laid the blame at the feet of the previous CEO. Satisfied with his comments, the press -- and Wall Street - responded positively, sales began to pick up and the problem was soon behind him.

About a year later, the company was again experiencing a slight dip in sales, combined with serious product problems. Having learned from his previous experience, the CEO quickly opened the second envelope. The message read, "Reorganize." This he did, and the company quickly rebounded.

After several consecutive profitable quarters, the company once again fell on difficult times. The CEO went to his office, closed the door and opened the third envelope.

The message said, "Prepare three envelopes."

[The Minsky Moment]

Challenges host to identify Ukraine on a map.

I propose NPR challenge President Trump to a map identification contest.  If the NPR reporter loses, NPR will surrender its White House press credentials. If Trump loses, he must resign.

Deal?

[Valmy]

Um dude when people say things like "journalists are so incompetent they couldn't find Ukraine on a map" they aren't being literal.