What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Admiral Yi]

I know there were a lot of them, but could only think of a handful off the top of my head, so padded a bit. Besides he's played many comedy characters and parts.

Leslie Neilson

[mongers]

I know there were a lot of them, but could only think of a handful off the top of my head, so padded a bit. Besides he's played many comedy characters and parts.

Leslie Neilson

Damn I knew there were one or two more prominent ones.

[DGuller]

I know there were a lot of them, but could only think of a handful off the top of my head, so padded a bit. Besides he's played many comedy characters and parts.

Leslie Neilson

Surely you can't be serious?

[Admiral Yi]

Surely you can't be serious?

One movie quote does not a mole make komrade.

[Syt]

It's "Nielsen"

[FunkMonk]

Jobs report released. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 304,000 this month.

TRUMPPPPPP

[Valmy]

Jobs report released. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 304,000 this month.

TRUMPPPPPP

Which month? January 2019? That is good news. Hopefully the stock markets will stabilize as well.

[Legbiter]

Jobs report released. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 304,000 this month.

TRUMPPPPPP

Good job America. 

[The Minsky Moment]

Same report says that December's total, previously reported as 312,000, was in fact 222,000, a downward revision of 90,000.

So lets wait and see how well the Jan numbers stick.

[Oexmelin]

That's the problem of tethering so much political virtue and skill to economic indicators.

[Barrister]

Same report says that December's total, previously reported as 312,000, was in fact 222,000, a downward revision of 90,000.

So lets wait and see how well the Jan numbers stick.

Isn't 222,000 still a pretty good number?

[The Minsky Moment]

It's pretty good, the point is that the immediate release is not very reliable.

[The Minsky Moment]

That's the problem of tethering so much political virtue and skill to economic indicators.

It's pretty silly to assign credit to the President for private company job numbers.  When similar numbers got put up during Obama's term, Trump called it "carnage" or "fake". 

If any governmental official merits credit it should be the Fed, don't hold your breath waiting for Jay Powell to get a hat tip.

[FunkMonk]

It's pretty good, the point is that the immediate release is not very reliable.

Actually it's pretty reliable. A revision of 90 thousand is on the high end but is not typical of most revisions at the second estimate.

While the December revisions were large and somewhat broad amongst major industry sectors, the revision in retail trade stuck out much more, making up over a third of the downward revision, seasonally adjusted.

Retail trade is notoriously seasonal in December, of course, so a large revision wasn't that unexpected, especially considering December collection receipts at first estimate were on the low end for the Establishment Survey as a whole.

[The Minsky Moment]

The BLS summarized some of these revisions in 2012: https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-2/revisions-to-jobs-numbers.htm

I suppose reliability is a subjective standard, but by my eyes, this is not highly reliable. April went from 115 to 69; June from 80 to 45; August from 96 to 192; November 146 to 247.  None of these directly impacted by December specific issues.

Judging from that sample, swings near or over 100K jobs are not that unusual, as are swings of 40+% down or as much as 100% up.