What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[derspiess]

And you guys wonder why I tend not to engage in serious conversation.

[The Minsky Moment]

It's almost impossible to mess up in a G7, it's the ultimate exercise in substance free diplomacy.  There is nothing more meaningless than G7 communique.  The whole point of the thing is just for people to show up and give the appearance of unity, without committing to anything of significance.  You would think Trump of all people would understand the value of the appearance of things in lieu of substance.  Alas, it appears there is truly nothing the world's leading village idiot can't screw up.

[dps]

And you guys wonder why I tend not to engage in serious conversation.

Not sure exactly where you're coming from on this;  DGuller and Garbon are correct that Jim Crow laws were a populist measure.  Jim Crow laws didn't ride in when Federal troops were withdrawn from the south after the 1876 election--they were passed about 20 years later as part of the Populist movement of the 1890s.  There were reasons that I once said that I think the best historical parallel to Trump would be William Jennings Bryan, if Bryan had won in 1896.

[garbon]

And you guys wonder why I tend not to engage in serious conversation.

Not sure exactly where you're coming from on this;  DGuller and Garbon are correct that Jim Crow laws were a populist measure.  Jim Crow laws didn't ride in when Federal troops were withdrawn from the south after the 1876 election--they were passed about 20 years later as part of the Populist movement of the 1890s.  There were reasons that I once said that I think the best historical parallel to Trump would be William Jennings Bryan, if Bryan had won in 1896.

I think he is suggesting we are calling him racist - which to be clear, was not my intent.

[dps]

And you guys wonder why I tend not to engage in serious conversation.

Not sure exactly where you're coming from on this;  DGuller and Garbon are correct that Jim Crow laws were a populist measure.  Jim Crow laws didn't ride in when Federal troops were withdrawn from the south after the 1876 election--they were passed about 20 years later as part of the Populist movement of the 1890s.  There were reasons that I once said that I think the best historical parallel to Trump would be William Jennings Bryan, if Bryan had won in 1896.

I think he is suggesting we are calling him racist - which to be clear, was not my intent.

Ah, I see.  I certainly didn't think that pointing out that Jim Crow laws were populist amounted to a charge of racism leveled against derspiess.

[Admiral Yi]

How was Jim Crow populist?  It wasn't a revolt of the masses against elite opinion.

[derspiess]

And you guys wonder why I tend not to engage in serious conversation.

Not sure exactly where you're coming from on this;  DGuller and Garbon are correct that Jim Crow laws were a populist measure.  Jim Crow laws didn't ride in when Federal troops were withdrawn from the south after the 1876 election--they were passed about 20 years later as part of the Populist movement of the 1890s.  There were reasons that I once said that I think the best historical parallel to Trump would be William Jennings Bryan, if Bryan had won in 1896.

That's a fair conversation and food for thought, but I was reacting to garbon's post, which I see he has now clarified.  Objection withdrawn

[DGuller]

How was Jim Crow populist?  It wasn't a revolt of the masses against elite opinion.

The elite opinion was that black people should have rights, which the elites imposed by military force.

[Admiral Yi]

The elite opinion was that black people should have rights, which the elites imposed by military force.

I'm sure members of the Southern elite would disagree with you.

[Barrister]

A senior white house official defines the Trump Doctrine of foreign policy as "We're America, Bitch".



https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/06/a-senior-white-house-official-defines-the-trump-doctrine-were-america-bitch/562511/

[Jacob]

It's almost impossible to mess up in a G7, it's the ultimate exercise in substance free diplomacy.  There is nothing more meaningless than G7 communique.  The whole point of the thing is just for people to show up and give the appearance of unity, without committing to anything of significance.  You would think Trump of all people would understand the value of the appearance of things in lieu of substance.  Alas, it appears there is truly nothing the world's leading village idiot can't screw up.

I agree on the substance of the G7, but I disagree with your assessment of Trump's performance. He went there deliberately to fuck it up as part of his strategy to appeal to his base.

From what I understand, his behaviour played well with significant groups of his voters who saw him as "dominating the room" and otherwise being strong. I also think his playbook is perpetual cycles of "hot-cold" to eke out advantages, and this was one of the cold cycles.

Destructive, yes. Moronic, yes. But not a fuck-up. It's a deliberate strategy.

[Legbiter]

Just when you thought things couldn't get more disturbing.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/06/08/donald-trump-beliefs-what-matters-fatalism-218663

It's a good article Tim. It's so rare to read a character profile on Trump that seems incisive or revelatory. Most of the time it's just deranged TDS word salad.

[Jacob]

On Trump's foreign policy doctrine: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/06/a-senior-white-house-official-defines-the-trump-doctrine-were-america-bitch/562511/

A few quotes:

"The Trump Doctrine is 'We're America, Bitch.' That's the Trump Doctrine."

"There's the Obama Doctrine, and the 'Fuck Obama' Doctrine," he said. "We're the 'Fuck Obama' Doctrine."

"Permanent destabilization creates American advantage."

Trump, this official said, doesn't believe that the U.S. should be part of any alliance at all. "We have to explain to him that countries that have worked with us together in the past expect a level of loyalty from us, but he doesn't believe that this should factor into the equation," the official said.

[Jacob]

Another bit on Trump's negotiation philosophy (it's a FB link): https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10156419572649621&set=pcb.10156419573609621&type=3&theater

In essence - Trump does not believe mutual benefit is possible in a deal. Either you're ripping someone off, or someone is ripping you off. Therefore he is very likely to reject a deal if the other party is content with it - even if the deal is to his benefit - since their acceptance signifies that they're ripping him off somehow.

I think it's pretty accurate. Combined with the on-again-off-again strategy, it describes and explains Trump's actions so far. fairly well I expect it will prove a reasonably accurate guide to his future actions as well.

[The Minsky Moment]

From what I understand, his behaviour played well with significant groups of his voters who saw him as "dominating the room"

Yeah he dominated the room all right.  Like a 2 year old throwing his dinner on the floor dominates the room.