What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Admiral Yi]

Interesting that strong majorities think the economy is doing great, and also think Trump is doing a lousy job.  This tends to confirm a theory of mine . . .

Pro Trump people on talking head shows are always pounding talking points on the strong economy as if that should convince people to support Trump.  And Trump himself is always banging on about this, usually in terms of the stock market.  Because he's a doofus.

It's true that the incumbent President tends to get good support when the economy is strong.  But not I think because people credit the President directly.  Rather, when things are going relatively well, people don't want to rock the boat.  There is a bias to the status quo that benefits the incumbent President.

But that works only for normal Presidents.  Trump doesn't act like a serene captain on calm waters, he acts as the principal insurgent force against his own government.  He's a pirate in the admiralty.  Rocking the boat is his SOP.  Trump's whole play is that he is a massive disrupter to deal with CARNAGE and DISASTER but jobs are up and wages are up and the markets are up, and that just makes him a bull in the china shop.

The conventional wisdom I learned in Poli Sci is that your average voter *always* credits the president for economic performace.

[jimmy olsen]

Way too early to predict. Dems have plenty of time left to crap their pants.

The 2nd chart shows that polls are predictive even this far out.

[Eddie Teach]

Way too early to predict. Dems have plenty of time left to crap their pants.

The 2nd chart shows that polls are predictive even this far out.

They couldn't hit an elephant at this-

[11B4V]

Way too early to predict. Dems have plenty of time left to crap their pants.

The 2nd chart shows that polls are predictive even this far out.

And the  fucking polls said Trump would lose.

[DGuller]

And the  fucking polls said Trump would lose.

Polls did not say that.  Nate Silver gave Trump 30% chance to win based on the polls.  Given the margin of victory, the actual outcome in no way discredits that assessment.

[CountDeMoney]

STFU, Russian trollbot assfuck.  Both of you.

[DGuller]

STFU, Russian trollbot assfuck.  Both of you.

You appear agitated, Seedy.  Here, have some tea. 

[The Minsky Moment]

The conventional wisdom I learned in Poli Sci is that your average voter *always* credits the president for economic performace.

Ray Fair made an election model based on the premise.  It always worked well when backtested but its predictive power wasn't as good.

[The Minsky Moment]

STFU, Russian trollbot assfuck.  Both of you.

He's right, though.  The numbers didn't lie, the people interpreting them read into them what they wanted to believe.

[11B4V]

And the  fucking polls said Trump would lose.

Polls did not say that.  Nate Silver gave Trump 30% chance to win based on the polls.  Given the margin of victory, the actual outcome in no way discredits that assessment.

Either way 2018 mid terms are now tainted.

[Razgovory]

Interesting that strong majorities think the economy is doing great, and also think Trump is doing a lousy job.  This tends to confirm a theory of mine . . .

Pro Trump people on talking head shows are always pounding talking points on the strong economy as if that should convince people to support Trump.  And Trump himself is always banging on about this, usually in terms of the stock market.  Because he's a doofus.

It's true that the incumbent President tends to get good support when the economy is strong.  But not I think because people credit the President directly.  Rather, when things are going relatively well, people don't want to rock the boat.  There is a bias to the status quo that benefits the incumbent President.

But that works only for normal Presidents.  Trump doesn't act like a serene captain on calm waters, he acts as the principal insurgent force against his own government.  He's a pirate in the admiralty.  Rocking the boat is his SOP.  Trump's whole play is that he is a massive disrupter to deal with CARNAGE and DISASTER but jobs are up and wages are up and the markets are up, and that just makes him a bull in the china shop.

The conventional wisdom I learned in Poli Sci is that your average voter *always* credits the president for economic performace.

None of the conventional wisdom is worth anything now.  Everything I thought I knew has been turned on its head.

[11B4V]

What he said

[jimmy olsen]

Way too early to predict. Dems have plenty of time left to crap their pants.

The 2nd chart shows that polls are predictive even this far out.

And the  fucking polls said Trump would lose.

The polls were within the margin of error.

[Eddie Teach]

Way too early to predict. Dems have plenty of time left to crap their pants.

The 2nd chart shows that polls are predictive even this far out.

And the  fucking polls said Trump would lose.

The polls were within the margin of error.

You're being overconfident as usual.

[CountDeMoney]

STFU, Russian trollbot assfuck.  Both of you.

You appear agitated, Seedy.  Here, have some tea. 

ENOUGH WITH THE RUSSIAN SHIT ALREADY
FUCK