What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Jacob]

My point stands. He is a winner. The rest of you whiny crybabies need to do some push ups. And not those girl ones either.

You are a winner too

[The Minsky Moment]

I was going by the media narrative.

Going by the media narrative, HRC is Prez and this is just a collective hallucination we'll wake up from soon.

[The Minsky Moment]

But neither are they of the opinion that Trump is an anchor pulling them all to their doom.  Ossof won the same % of the vote as Clinton did a few months ago.  If this was a referendum on Trump it means that opinions haven't changed that much since election day.  Which in some ways makes sense - if you were paying attention President Trump has acted just like Candidate Trump was.  And if you weren't paying attention, well you still aren't.

It wasn't a referendum on Trump - it was an election for Congress.  The question is what degree Trump is pulling downward.  The Republicans ran what should have been an ideal candidate: an experienced, educated woman with both unimpeachable party and conservative credentials, but also some crossover appeal.  In a district that historically generates high double digit margins for Republicans.  She ran a good campaign with a first rate media effort and ground campaign.  And she barely squeaked by against a nobody from outside the district (though admittedly a well-funded nobody).

It's not reassuring to say that she won by the same margin as Trump - that in fact virtually proves that Trump is a dead weight pulling down.  Trump lost the nationwide vote - if the GOP can't improve on that, they can only hold the House by virtue of lumpy voting or gerrymandering, a practice currently being reviewed by the Supreme Court.

[Barrister]

But neither are they of the opinion that Trump is an anchor pulling them all to their doom.  Ossof won the same % of the vote as Clinton did a few months ago.  If this was a referendum on Trump it means that opinions haven't changed that much since election day.  Which in some ways makes sense - if you were paying attention President Trump has acted just like Candidate Trump was.  And if you weren't paying attention, well you still aren't.

It wasn't a referendum on Trump - it was an election for Congress.  The question is what degree Trump is pulling downward.  The Republicans ran what should have been an ideal candidate: an experienced, educated woman with both unimpeachable party and conservative credentials, but also some crossover appeal.  In a district that historically generates high double digit margins for Republicans.  She ran a good campaign with a first rate media effort and ground campaign.  And she barely squeaked by against a nobody from outside the district (though admittedly a well-funded nobody).

It's not reassuring to say that she won by the same margin as Trump - that in fact virtually proves that Trump is a dead weight pulling down.  Trump lost the nationwide vote - if the GOP can't improve on that, they can only hold the House by virtue of lumpy voting or gerrymandering, a practice currently being reviewed by the Supreme Court.

You really can't compare this elections results to last November, or even for most (all) of the 20-30 years before.  It's always been considered a safe seat so Democrats never seriously contested it.  If the Dems had seriously contested it last November they maybe (probably) would still have lost, but not by 20 points.

Trump does appear to be a downward pull - you can't rely on losing the national vote but winning in the electoral college.  But it hasn't been a large enough downward pull for congressional republicans to start publicly disavowing Trump.

[Valmy]

He is still too popular. We will need to see Trump start to hit the approval rates of Dubya in his last few weeks when he was hitting down into the mid 20s before I think we can expect it to significantly shake up anything. I am not sure what that would take.

[The Minsky Moment]

Trump does appear to be a downward pull - you can't rely on losing the national vote but winning in the electoral college.  But it hasn't been a large enough downward pull for congressional republicans to start publicly disavowing Trump.

No doubt.  But is it disaster averted or disaster postponed?  That election doesn't answer the question.

[FunkMonk]

Official FunkMonk Prediction:

The Democrats will win seats in the House next year but not enough to win a majority.

Everyone will laugh at the Democrats.

[Valmy]

I would rather be laughed at while winning seats than while losing them 

[Admiral Yi]

I think a lot depends on the Mueller report.

[CountDeMoney]

I think a lot depends on the Mueller report.

There will be no "Mueller report."

[sbr]

At least in time to affect 2018.  Maybe 2020.

[Barrister]

I think Seedy was going for "Mueller will be fired before then".

Of course the "Saturday night massacre" didn't exactly help Nixon out when he tried that gambit.

[CountDeMoney]

Of course the "Saturday night massacre" didn't exactly help Nixon out when he tried that gambit.

Nixon had to deal with a Democrat-controlled Congress.  Der Trumpenfuhrer doesn't have that problem.

[dps]

Remind me again plz, which team is mine?

The Republicans.

You know, the ones who believe in social and fiscal conservatism, that lowering taxes and regulation is good, that social spending is wasteful, that racism is more of a joke than a social problem, that the US is a Christian nation, that you've worked hard and deserve what you've got and that poor people mostly have themselves to blame, that the government shouldn't worry about things like housing and health care and that if people can't get the things they need it's basically their own tough luck.

I don't think that racism is a joke, and I'm well aware that the US isn't a Christian nation.  And while I certainly believe in fiscal conservatism, I have almost no confidence in the Republican party to deliver it (though there's not even any hope of the Democrats to deliver it unless there's a seismic shift if Democratic policy positions).  And I'm not 100% opposed to the government worrying about housing.  Other than that, yeah, that's my team, but yes, I also certainly don't consider President Trump a member of the team.  Does he strike you as a team player?

[jimmy olsen]

Your point would be stronger if the Dems spent an unprecedented amount and the Republicans spent as per usual, but since both sides devoted a lot of resources why isnt it significant that the Dem candidate came so close in a contest where the Dems historically do very poorly?

My point is that when there is so much attention and money involved (and FWIW the Dems spent more), it skews things.  You're not going to get "normal" election results.  But if the Democrat candidate in that district wins next year (or gets 48% of the vote), you guys can all laugh at me and tell me you told me so.

But why do you think "attention" skews the result?  Do you think Democratic voters in that area are less likely to vote normally?

Seems like it always happens in these special elections.  Polls hint at an upset win, tons of money and media attention flow in, upstart candidate narrowly loses, then next election things are back to normal.

But I could be wrong.  Maybe next year the Dems will get supermajorities in both houses, Trump and Pence will both be impeached and removed from office, and Nancy Pelosi will then become our next president.

They're not going to put someone that old in the White House, they'll elect a different speaker. 14% swing in Dems favor on average. They need an 8-10% swing to win the House.