What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Razgovory]

All those Confederate sympathizers who claimed the Civil War was over tariffs must be getting ready to rebel right now.

[Valmy]

All those Confederate sympathizers who claimed the Civil War was over tariffs must be getting ready to rebel right now.

The tariffs that were only passed after the southern states started to secede 

[The Minsky Moment]

Tariff on the European Union as a whole is 20 percent.

But the US has separate trade accounts with each EU member.

For example, the US runs a VERY large trade surplus with the Netherlands.  Why?  Because a large chunk of EU refining capacity is located in the Netherlands and Rotterdam is the largest port in the EU. So, US petroleum products for European consumption transits through the Netherlands, and the entire value is counted as a Dutch import even though it is only moving through to be refined and for the most part sent elsewhere.

Under Trump logic, the US is "ripping off" the Netherlands. Of course, the reality is that this trade is very profitable for the Dutch.  They'd have to be nuts to put a tariff on the US. But this is exactly what the US to doing to countries like Guyana.  Guyana exports crude oil to the US so it can get refined in the Gulf Coast and potentially sent elsewhere.  An obviously beneficial trade for everyone, including the US.  But the Trump formula hits them with a 39% tariff.

Other big exports from the US to the Netherlands include optical equipment, high end machinery, electonic equipment.  Some of this probably because the Dutch manufacture high end lithography equipment and use some US suppliers for components and support.  And some because of Rotterdam.  Again there none of this is a negative to the Dutch.

Imagine the Netherlands pulled a Trump and imposed tariffs.  It wouldn't impact the US.  The US exporters would route container traffic through Antwerp and ship to other refiners.

Trade "balance" issues with systemic causes can't be solved by farting around with bilateral tariffs.

[Threviel]

Yes, but are other countries fighting back with those other tools?

Australia a top example, they can't be antagonistic towards the US cause then they'll be at the mercy of China. So the Americans can put up tariffs, demand no tariffs in return and the Aussies will fold.

Are those tariffs bad enough to offset the competitive edge and growth from local sources?

[Valmy]

That seems very specific to Australia. Even Japan and South Korea seem willing to work with the Chinese to deal with the tariffs.

[Threviel]

It's rather specific to every area at the mercy of the Americans. Like Guyana in Minskys example.

[Threviel]

Or RoC perhaps. Canada and Mexico.

Every country where the economy os security is dependant on the US.

[Threviel]

There's also the matter of longevity. Tariffs on Canada costing 200k jobs on each side of the border affects Canada disproportionately more than the US. How long can Canada sustain a trade war?

[crazy canuck]

Could he be winning? Australia won't fight back and I assume that lots of other places won't either. Lots of companies talk of moving production to the US.

Is whacking with a big stick working?

The tariffs are only going to make things more expensive for Americans. In most cases it won't make sense for companies to relocate production to the US because the production costs in the US are much more than the tariffs.

[crazy canuck]

There's also the matter of longevity. Tariffs on Canada costing 200k jobs on each side of the border affects Canada disproportionately more than the US. How long can Canada sustain a trade war?

Why do you think it will affect 200k workers in Canada?

[PJL]

There's also the matter of longevity. Tariffs on Canada costing 200k jobs on each side of the border affects Canada disproportionately more than the US. How long can Canada sustain a trade war?

In retrospect, Carney made the right call in holding an April election. Soon enough to make people angry and patriotic about Canada but not long enough for the effects to start trickle down noticeably through higher prices and 'war weariness' to set in.

[Valmy]

There's also the matter of longevity. Tariffs on Canada costing 200k jobs on each side of the border affects Canada disproportionately more than the US. How long can Canada sustain a trade war?

Assuming Trump doesn't just cancel the whole thing next week.

[PJL]

There's also the matter of longevity. Tariffs on Canada costing 200k jobs on each side of the border affects Canada disproportionately more than the US. How long can Canada sustain a trade war?

Assuming Trump doesn't just cancel the whole thing next week.

This feels more planned than previous attempts though. Can't see him reversing next week. I'd give this at least 3 months.

[Threviel]

There's also the matter of longevity. Tariffs on Canada costing 200k jobs on each side of the border affects Canada disproportionately more than the US. How long can Canada sustain a trade war?

Why do you think it will affect 200k workers in Canada?

I should have been clearer, it's a (badly explained) thought experiment meant to showcase that while both sides will be affected equally the smaller part will be affected proportionally harder. 200k is just a number I pulled from thin air. Make it 800k or 20k if you want.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I wonder how many countries are waiting to see what the Chinese reaction will be. If they hit back hard, expect others to follow.