What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Richard Hakluyt]

I had a look at Cambodia, which exports about $13bn to the USA and only imports $500m. There is a simple brakdown of their exports here https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports/cambodia

About half appears to be clothing/leather goods, which conforms to my expectations. I would imagine that the electronic/electrical equipment are things like toasters. The rest appears to be basic products of various types.

A typical Cambodian wage is only about $300 a month. Even with 49% tariffs I'm not sure there is much scope for reshoring to the USA, but t-shirts will be more expensive.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Some of the places with tariffs imposed on them are starting to experience domestic unrest:
https://bsky.app/profile/heardislandgov.bsky.social/post/3lluzye3vsu2j

[crazy canuck]

I had a look at Cambodia, which exports about $13bn to the USA and only imports $500m. There is a simple brakdown of their exports here https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/imports/cambodia

About half appears to be clothing/leather goods, which conforms to my expectations. I would imagine that the electronic/electrical equipment are things like toasters. The rest appears to be basic products of various types.

A typical Cambodian wage is only about $300 a month. Even with 49% tariffs I'm not sure there is much scope for reshoring to the USA, but t-shirts will be more expensive.

I heard one commentator describe the US move as self-immolation

[Norgy]

This whole Greenland affair reminds me of one of the more lugubrious parts of Norway's inter-war foreign policy.

We had claimed about every deserted rock in the Arctic.

But not Greenland. Which was "ours".

So expeditions (which Norwegians are good at) set out for Greenland, and occupied parts of eastern Greenland. In the name of king and country etc.
These were the people who later became the fundament of NS, the Norwegian collaborators. The "Greenland Affair" was a minor diplomatic incident in the larger picture, but still a stain. I think it lasted a few months, this occupation, until supplies ran dry.

History repeating? Didn't hear it from me.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

About half appears to be clothing/leather goods, which conforms to my expectations. I would imagine that the electronic/electrical equipment are things like toasters. The rest appears to be basic products of various types.

You can click on the broad categories and get a more detailed breakdown.  The electronics category is, as I suspected going in, 80% basic electronic components.  Southeast Asia is the current hub for discrete electronic components (resistors, capacitors, inductors, diodes, discrete transistors, etc.).

[Barrister]

What happened to needing imminent threats to impose tariffs? That fig lead just get thrown away with a shrug?

The person who decides if the threat is imminent is the President.

USSC is understandably very reluctant to rule on what is obviously a judgment call at some level.

Of course the tariff power has only been delegated to the President by Congress. Congress could easily take away the President's power to unilaterally impose tariffs.

[Valmy]

Sounds like Charles I type logic to get around Parliament.

[viper37]

What happened to needing imminent threats to impose tariffs? That fig lead just get thrown away with a shrug?

The Congress voted a resolution that they could no longer overturn any tariff decision made by the POTUS until the next mid term election.

The Senate passed a resolution yesterday to condemn the President's actions on tariffs vs Canada, but it's meaningless since it won't pass the House.

[The Minsky Moment]

Lesotho at 50%. Because they export diamonds and are too poor to import anything from the US. 
Iraq at 39% because we still buy lots of oil from them.  Same for Guyana.  Angola at 32% because also oil.  And diamonds.

Silly, silly shit.

The penguin memes are because there is a background 10 percent on everyone else and every territory is treated separately.  So for example, there is a 10% tariff imposed on the British Indian Ocean Territory.  Nearly all the human beings in the territory are US and UK military personnel posted to Diego Garcia.

Apart from the policy idiocy the lack of thought that went into this boggles the mind.  It's like a 5th grader trying to throw together a major school project and starting the night before it was due.

[Valmy]

I don't understand how that works. So if the midterms come and go the House can then cancel the tariffs? And it can just do this? This wouldn't be a bill the President can veto?

[Threviel]

Could he be winning? Australia won't fight back and I assume that lots of other places won't either. Lots of companies talk of moving production to the US.

Is whacking with a big stick working?

[The Minsky Moment]

I don't understand how that works. So if the midterms come and go the House can then cancel the tariffs? And it can just do this? This wouldn't be a bill the President can veto?

The tariffs are not enacted legislation; they can only stay in place with Congressional approval.  It's not an action subject to veto.

[The Minsky Moment]

Could he be winning? Australia won't fight back and I assume that lots of other places won't either. Lots of companies talk of moving production to the US.

'

There are ways of fighting back that can be more effective than retaliatory tariffs . . .there is a reason why most countries including the US have steadily reduced their use of tariffs as a trade policy tool in favor of other measures.

As for production in the US, it's hard to see how these moves create a tempting investment climate where it's not clear how and at what price key inputs can be secured and what the output market is going to look like.

[Valmy]

I don't understand how that works. So if the midterms come and go the House can then cancel the tariffs? And it can just do this? This wouldn't be a bill the President can veto?

The tariffs are not enacted legislation; they can only stay in place with Congressional approval.  It's not an action subject to veto.

So bizarre. Schrodinger's legislation.

[Valmy]

Could he be winning? Australia won't fight back and I assume that lots of other places won't either. Lots of companies talk of moving production to the US.

Is whacking with a big stick working?

We'll see. I think at first everybody is going to wait and see if these tariffs stick.

And I do think this will work for some select industries. The problem is these are so universal and widespread. And of course even for that this administration would have to stick to a tariffs policy for a few years instead of a few minutes like it has been doing.