What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[The Minsky Moment]

Elise Stefanik  at UN.  *Likely*

That would be nice, get her out of Congress, put her where she can't do any real damage.

[Grey Fox]

Wonder why Stefanik is quitting her post, she wins with 60%+ of the vote every cycle.

[Barrister]

Vance said in an interview that if Europeans want to regulate ex-Twitter, the US could drop support for NATO.

Also outlines a possible "peace" in Ukraine - freeze frontline, create fortified DMZ, guaranteed Ukraininan neutrality, Germany and others rebuild Ukraine.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jd-vance-elon-musk-x-twitter-donald-trump-b2614525.html

So threatening NATO over Twitter is terrifying.

Vance's "peace deal" is very bad for Ukraine, but hardly the worst possible outcome - in particular depending on the "fortified DMZ".  A Korean-style DMZ, with US troops on the border, would have it's attractions.

Because I still think Trump's "peace deal" with Ukraine is nothing.  Pull all aid from Ukraine and let them fall.

[The Minsky Moment]

There is zero chance of US troops being deployed to a Ukraine DMZ by a Trump administration.

A "fortified DMZ" is a contradiction in terms.

It's grotesque bad faith. It's a way to give Russia a needed pause while they regroup, get released from sanctions, and then proceed to crush a weakened and neutered Ukraine.

[Grey Fox]

Regulating a dieing platform is not something anyone should do.

Twitter will continue to be a way to funnel money to Musk but it's reach outside the USA is going to die a very quick death very soon.

[Barrister]

There is zero chance of US troops being deployed to a Ukraine DMZ by a Trump administration.

A "fortified DMZ" is a contradiction in terms.

It's grotesque bad faith. It's a way to give Russia a needed pause while they regroup, get released from sanctions, and then proceed to crush a weakened and neutered Ukraine.

So I am hardly some Trump booster here!

A "fortified DMZ" is not a contradiction in terms, in that is exactly what exists in Korea.

If you replaced German and French troops for US, the idea would still hold.

As I said I really don't think that's a likely outcome, and rather expect a full betrayal of Ukraine by the Trump administration.

But to the extent that they float these kinds of ideas (which I also doubt Russia would expect) gives me the faint glimmers of hope that we won't get the worst case scenario.

[Josquius]

The Korean border is about a bazillion times smaller than the Ukrainian border.
The idea is just impractical on that scale even with the Americans.

A fantasy outcome that would be nice is if Russia would accept to have international troops move into the occupied areas and oversee referenda to confirm Russia needs to stay out. But obviously not happening.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

korean border is 250km or so, Ukrainian border would be 1800km not counting the border with Belarus, through which Putin also invaded.

No, the US government is gonna be a Russian puppet and its president the Poodle.

[Barrister]

The Korean border is about a bazillion times smaller than the Ukrainian border.
The idea is just impractical on that scale even with the Americans.

A fantasy outcome I'd like would be nice if Russia would accept to have international troops move into the occupied areas and oversee referenda to confirm Russia needs to stay out. But obviously not happening.

Referendums are just impossible at this point.

First of all Russia has already claimed to have conducted them.  So even agreeing to a second referendum would be a concession on their part.

But more so - Russia has already sent the regions through a series of "filtrations", plus moving in residents from other areas of Russia, such that you can't possibly get a free and fair referendum.

[Josquius]

The Korean border is about a bazillion times smaller than the Ukrainian border.
The idea is just impractical on that scale even with the Americans.

A fantasy outcome I'd like would be nice if Russia would accept to have international troops move into the occupied areas and oversee referenda to confirm Russia needs to stay out. But obviously not happening.

Referendums are just impossible at this point.

First of all Russia has already claimed to have conducted them.  So even agreeing to a second referendum would be a concession on their part.

But more so - Russia has already sent the regions through a series of "filtrations", plus moving in residents from other areas of Russia, such that you can't possibly get a free and fair referendum.

I would use the voter lists from before the invasion. Clearly a lot of refugees out there and then more recent immigrants who would say different.
But yes. Clearly it would all go against Russia which even if things were neutral they wouldn't accept, when things are going their way, as they are, they absolutely wont.
 The only remote value of the suggestions is in further highlighting Ukraine as the good guys who are willing to talk and entertain Russias claims the people actually wanted to join Russia.

[viper37]

Elon Musk and another clown at the head of the Department of Government efficiency

It's going to be as great as X.

[grumbler]

A "fortified DMZ" is not a contradiction in terms, in that is exactly what exists in Korea.

It cannot be both fortified and a Demilitarized Zone.  What exists in Korea is two fortified borders that have a non-fortified DMZ between them.  The border between Ukrainian defenders and Russian aggressors would be difficult to pin down, and even suggesting an "in-place truce" would just encourage more frantic fighting to secure the most favorable definition of "in place."

[Admiral Yi]

Uh oh.  Swami is going to co-head government efficiency with Musk.  Guaranteed fireworks.

[crazy canuck]

A Fox News anchor who served in the military and did some tours of duty is the new Secretary of Defence.

How concerned should we be?

[Razgovory]

I keep reading "Lee Zeldin" as "Led Zeppelin".