What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[jimmy olsen]

Donald Trump indicted in classified documents probe, sources say

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/08/politics/trump-indictment-truth-social-classified-documents

[OttoVonBismarck]

I will note the strangest thing about Trump's document saga, Archives basically gave him a chance to return all this--and waited something like 9 months before making it a criminal matter. It beggars understanding why Trump willfully refused to return them--that very behavior in and of itself hurts him so much in a legal respect because it means he can't claim this was all accidental. It's hard to claim an accident when you've been told by NARA to return them and then just say "no" until Federal agents show up with a warrant.

[jimmy olsen]

I will note the strangest thing about Trump's document saga, Archives basically gave him a chance to return all this--and waited something like 9 months before making it a criminal matter. It beggars understanding why Trump willfully refused to return them--that very behavior in and of itself hurts him so much in a legal respect because it means he can't claim this was all accidental. It's hard to claim an accident when you've been told by NARA to return them and then just say "no" until Federal agents show up with a warrant.

I mean, given Trump's personality, it's not surprising at all.

[Oexmelin]

Trump gets off from impunity. Always has.

[Josquius]

Yet still we get endless false equivalence about Biden inviting people in to check if he had anything.

[The Minsky Moment]

Yet still we get endless false equivalence about Biden inviting people in to check if he had anything.

That won't play in court

[The Minsky Moment]

Trump gets off from impunity. Always has.

He has spent most of his career skirting on the edges of the legality but always keeping in the gray areas or at least being careful about not leaving paper trails pointing to him.  So I agree with Otto that the way this was handled was careless, uncharacteristically so for Trump.  I think the Presidency may have weakened his judgment; he seems to have genuinely bought into the "Article II says I can do anything I want" nonsense pushed by sycophantic aides.

[Hamilcar]

Does he go to Real Prison for this, or will he get a fine and an ankle bracelet.

[Syt]

[The Minsky Moment]

Does he go to Real Prison for this, or will he get a fine and an ankle bracelet.

Question 1 is whether a conviction would normally result in real prison sentence.  The answer is that it depends on the exact charges for which he is convicted and the conduct proved at trial.  If he is convicted on an Espionage Act charge, significant prison term is extremely likely. Eg. improper transmission of Top Secret information under the Fed Sentencing Guidelines carries a base offense level of 29.  Even if there are no upward adjustments and with no criminal history, the guidelines sentence is 87-108 months.  Federal courts have significant sentencing discretion especially with first time offenders, but there is no way that gets lowered to zero.

If the conviction is only for false statements, it gets a little more complicated - there is a default offense level of 6 if the false statement does not relate to another offense, but if it was for the purpose of obstructing an official proceeding, it goes up to 14. A "6" has a guidelines sentence of 0-6 months, a "14" - 15-21 months.  In the former case a no jail sentence is very likely; even with the latter it is possible for a first time offender.

Question 2 is what happens if Trump receives a jail sentence given his statutory rights as President.  That is uncharted territory.

[Caliga]

It's hard to imagine Trump being put into a prison-prison given the logistical nightmare of doing that for an ex-President with Secret Service protection, etc.  Maybe they can turn Mar-A-Lago into a prison for one inmate.

[viper37]

Does he go to Real Prison for this, or will he get a fine and an ankle bracelet.

More important questions:
Can he be elected from prison?  Can he rule the country from prison after the Republicans refuse to impeach him?

[viper37]

It's hard to imagine Trump being put into a prison-prison given the logistical nightmare of doing that for an ex-President with Secret Service protection, etc.  Maybe they can turn Mar-A-Lago into a prison for one inmate.

Solitary confinement is an option...

[Caliga]

Can he be elected from prison?  Can he rule the country from prison after the Republicans refuse to impeach him?

I think we've gone over this before and the answer is yes on both counts?  The guys who wrote the Constitution probably didn't think the electorate would ever get this stupid...

[Barrister]

Can he be elected from prison?  Can he rule the country from prison after the Republicans refuse to impeach him?

I think we've gone over this before and the answer is yes on both counts?  The guys who wrote the Constitution probably didn't think the electorate would ever get this stupid...

Someone (Eugene Debs maybe?) once ran for President from inside of prison.

As for what if he were elected... well for starters if he's convicted of federal crimes he could just pardon himself day one.  State crimes?  God only knows...


Edit: yup it was Eugene Debs.