What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Valmy]

Well one is Trump doing his usual thing of claiming every criticism of him is some sort of malicious smear. The other is people who are not Hitler trying to defend antisemitism as not-so-bad.

[dps]

Good God, Tim.

Fuck off. I know people who went without power for four months because this feckless spray tanned orangutan is too lazy and racist to do his job. When he goes out there on a public forum and pretends thousands of people didn't die, that millions of people didn't suffer, because of his malicious neglect, I'm going to call out his attempts to gaslight America for what they are.

No matter how bad Trump is, using a Holocaust analogy on him is flat-out stupid.  I know you're addled by TDS, but you need to pull yourself out of that and come to grips with reality.  I'm here to help

He currently has 12,800 children in desert concentration camps.

How is it stupid? These statements are stylistically the same.

"Millions of Jews didn't die in the holocaust. It's just a conspiracy to make Hitler look bad."
"Thousands of Americans didn't die in Puerto Rico. It's just a conspiracy to make me (Trump) look bad"

Who the fuck cares about whether or not the 2 statements are stylistically the same.  "I love bacon" and "I hate bacon" are stylistically the same.  Being stylistically similar doesn't mean anything.  You're comparing the deaths of thousands from a natural disaster (possibly made higher by a poor response from the government) to the deliberate murder of millions.  That's either stupidity or a deliberate attempt to be misleading.

[Eddie Teach]

Trump didn't order the hurricane.

[jimmy olsen]

Who the fuck cares about whether or not the 2 statements are stylistically the same. 

Me, I've been consistent on that from my first response to Eddie.

[alfred russel]

George HW Bush said he doesn't care for broccoli.
Hitler said he doesn't care for jews.

The statements are stylistically the same. Therefore, George HW Bush is an anti semite.

[The Minsky Moment]

The point being made is that counting up the dead attributable to a mass disaster is inherently difficult: but also, that using "clever sampling techniques", we can establish a range - and in this case, that range indicates that lots and lots of people died (the exact number of which remains unknown and probably unknowable).

Trump's point I guess is that it doesn't count unless you are literally blown away like Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz.
Expect the NRA to pick up this line - i.e. no one actually dies from guns, they die because of blood loss or heart stoppage.

[The Minsky Moment]

Speaking of the NRA why are they commenting on ethnic diversity in children's cartoons?  Isn't that a bit off mission?

[dps]

The point being made is that counting up the dead attributable to a mass disaster is inherently difficult: but also, that using "clever sampling techniques", we can establish a range - and in this case, that range indicates that lots and lots of people died (the exact number of which remains unknown and probably unknowable).

Trump's point I guess is that it doesn't count unless you are literally blown away like Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz.
Expect the NRA to pick up this line - i.e. no one actually dies from guns, they die because of blood loss or heart stoppage.

Reminds me of a story where an M.E. ruled that someone who had been decapitated died of natural causes, saying, "Well, it's natural to die if your head is cut off".

[Razgovory]

Speaking of the NRA why are they commenting on ethnic diversity in children's cartoons?  Isn't that a bit off mission?

Nope.  Guns are for defending yourself, your way of life, and the Constitution from ethnic minorities.

[Tonitrus]

There abosultely is not. Name one credible person or organization that denies it.

The Economist *questions* it.

Link me

Use the magic =word next time bitch.

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/05/31/eight-months-after-hurricane-maria-the-human-toll-is-still-unclear

That article pre-dates the release of the most recent study released by GWU.

[grumbler]

The GWU study shows only that there were between 2658 and 3290 (95% confidence) more observed deaths in the seven months September 2017 to February 2018 than would be predicted by the model they judged most applicable.  The PR government's attribution of all those "excess deaths" to the hurricane is a political decision, not a scientific one.  It is certainly possible (maybe even likely) that these numbers are approximately correct, it is also possible that they are under-inflated or over-inflated, depending on the other factors that might have caused greater or fewer deaths in the period. In any case, the decision to adopt the precisely wrong number of 2,975 was a mistake, as it opens the government to charges that it is presenting data that it knows is almost certainly wrong.

[The Minsky Moment]

The GWU study shows only that there were between 2658 and 3290 (95% confidence) more observed deaths in the seven months September 2017 to February 2018 than would be predicted by the model they judged most applicable.  The PR government's attribution of all those "excess deaths" to the hurricane is a political decision, not a scientific one.  It is certainly possible (maybe even likely) that these numbers are approximately correct, it is also possible that they are under-inflated or over-inflated, depending on the other factors that might have caused greater or fewer deaths in the period. In any case, the decision to adopt the precisely wrong number of 2,975 was a mistake, as it opens the government to charges that it is presenting data that it knows is almost certainly wrong.

I'm not sure what this refers to.  Trump did not use the 2,975 number in his tweet - he used the 3000 number widely reported in the media. The GWU study was adopted by the governor of PR, but he explicitly said it was merely an "estimate".  The PR government cannot fairly be accused of presenting inaccurate information.  They are giving what they think is the best information available. It is no more a political decision than using acturarial analysis in preparing budgets.

The only one making political statements with no factual basis is Trump.

[The Minsky Moment]

On Trump's logic, no one ever dies from smoking, obesity, or asbestos exposure. Estimates for those causes are based on increases in mortality risk and rates; studies use a similar  methodology as here - sampling and comparison of mortality rates. 

The Tobacco Institute lives.

[grumbler]

I'm not sure what this refers to.  Trump did not use the 2,975 number in his tweet - he used the 3000 number widely reported in the media. The GWU study was adopted by the governor of PR, but he explicitly said it was merely an "estimate".  The PR government cannot fairly be accused of presenting inaccurate information.  They are giving what they think is the best information available. It is no more a political decision than using acturarial analysis in preparing budgets.

The only one making political statements with no factual basis is Trump.

I guess that I should have pointed out that 2,975 was the official death toll claim by the Puerto Rican government.... wait... I did point that out!  That's not actually an estimated number, it's just the median number in the range presented by GWU.  GWU presented an estimate that wasn't precise and the PR government adopted a precise number as the "official death toll."  I am not sure what is difficult to understand about that.

[The Minsky Moment]

I guess that I should have pointed out that 2,975 was the official death toll claim by the Puerto Rican government.... wait... I did point that out!  That's not actually an estimated number, it's just the median number in the range presented by GWU.  GWU presented an estimate that wasn't precise and the PR government adopted a precise number as the "official death toll."  I am not sure what is difficult to understand about that.

It's easy to understand it's just not accurate.  The governor gave a press conference and was reported to say as follows:

In a press conference on Tuesday afternoon, Puerto Rico Governor Ricardo Rosselló announced that his administration is updating its death toll count of 64 to match GWU's 2, 975, "keeping in mind that it's still an estimate."

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/puerto-rico-crisis/hurricane-maria-death-toll-puerto-rico-may-be-closer-2-n904426

So the official government position of PR is that it estimates that 2,975 people were killed and it was made explicit that estimate is based on the GWU study.  It is an estimated number - the governor characterized it exactly that way.

Taking a median of a range is a perfectly valid way of presenting an estimate.

This is all seems reasonable, I don't see where politics is driving the number. The old official estimate was clearly too low.