Coup attempt in Turkey

[OttoVonBismarck]

I am not sure I get your argument why the US is "required" to conduct interventionist wars for Europe. What happens if you say no?

I'm not sure, we've yet to have a President with the spine to do so.

No, we aren't formally required to do these things, but if you follow international relations or domestic politics the pressures of both can push countries in certain directions. We need to exit that game as much as possible.

[Zanza]

Eisenhower said no during the Suez crisis.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Eisenhower said no during the Suez crisis.

That's a good point--I had totally forgotten that. It's a shame that we haven't had more Eisenhowers, he was an underrated President.

[The Minsky Moment]

I'm not blaming the "alliance" for anything, I'm advocating for a shift in American policy. In so much as I "blame" NATO for anything, what I'm really blaming is U.S. NATO policy, not "the alliance" itself. I mean we're the majority of military and political force in NATO anyway, so any problems in NATO are largely our baby.

Ok I follow that.

NATO made a ton of sense for the United States for 50 years. Less sense for 10, and even less sense for the 10 after that, in its present form.

But not so much that - seems to me NATO is more relevant now than it was in the 90s during the "unipolar" moment.  I.e with a more assertive China and Russia challenging aspects of the existing international order.

In terms of your concerns if the US decides to be less interventionist, NATO is still very useful, maybe even more so than an interventionist US that 2003 style can't carry NATO with it anyways.  If its stays interventionist, NATO is just one of the tools to carry out that policy not a driver of it.   It would be different if NATO allies were starting interventions against US will and dragging us in - that doesn't seem to be happening.  France intervenes in West Africa without us quite a bit.  UK intervened in Sierra Leone on their own dime.  The only arguable case to be made here is Libya where the French were leading but metaphorically (and sort of literally) ran out of gas leading to greater US participation.  But I'm pretty sure if Obama had made it clear that US was out from the outset, it wouldn't have played out that way.  Instead he chose the tweener "lead from behind" formula which is still leadership. 

[Zanza]

Erdogan now wants to reintroduce the death penalty. That would at least clarify that he no longer seeks any progress towards EU membership. Those negotiations have been a farce for at least a decade, but we should eventually just abolish them.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I'm presuming he'd apply the death penalty retroactively to the coup participants, which would also be a strong indication the rule of law was fully over in Turkey.

[alfred russel]

which would also be a strong indication the rule of law was fully over in Turkey.

Well, Turkey has been sending a bunch of people to jail on some really far fetched conspiracy theories, and supposedly 2,700 judges were just removed/suspended. I'm not sure how much the jury is really out on this one.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I actually suspect something real bad is going to happen when Turkey finishes preparing its formal extradition request for Fethullah Gülen; now unless I'm mistaken, since Gülen is a permanent resident with a green card, there is no mechanism for the State Department or the President to just "extradite him" on special request from Turkey. We would have to hold an extradition hearing in courts, which are not politically answerable to U.S. foreign policy concerns. Unless the Turkish request actually contains legitimate evidence that would withstand court scrutiny, it's likely the request will be rejected by a court--and even if Obama was inclined to do something about it, he couldn't.

I've heard some people suggest Erdogan might basically close up Incirlik and not allow anyone to come or go, essentially holding some ~5000 American servicemen hostage, until Gülen is extradited.

[HVC]

Do European countries not have the death penalty for treason?

[Zanza]

Belarus is the only country in Europe with capital punishment.

[HVC]

For some reason I thought there would be exceptions for treason.

[garbon]

I've heard some people suggest Erdogan might basically close up Incirlik and not allow anyone to come or go, essentially holding some ~5000 American servicemen hostage, until Gülen is extradited.

He'd be mightily overplaying his hand if he did that.

[alfred russel]

I actually suspect something real bad is going to happen when Turkey finishes preparing its formal extradition request for Fethullah Gülen; now unless I'm mistaken, since Gülen is a permanent resident with a green card, there is no mechanism for the State Department or the President to just "extradite him" on special request from Turkey. We would have to hold an extradition hearing in courts, which are not politically answerable to U.S. foreign policy concerns. Unless the Turkish request actually contains legitimate evidence that would withstand court scrutiny, it's likely the request will be rejected by a court--and even if Obama was inclined to do something about it, he couldn't.

I've heard some people suggest Erdogan might basically close up Incirlik and not allow anyone to come or go, essentially holding some ~5000 American servicemen hostage, until Gülen is extradited.

I wouldn't be surprised if Erdogan would like an excuse to get the US military out of Turkey, but he needs to be careful. Northern Cyprus is still an ongoing issue.

[LaCroix]

last I read, they're considering bringing back the death penalty, but it wouldn't apply to the current coup plotters

[DGuller]

That's not really a big problem.  During the Great Purge a lot of people originally got prison sentences, before they learned that they were involved in other conspiracies that got them executed.