Vote in the Spanish general election! (yes, AGAIN)

[Zanza]

That's not very logical.

[Jaron]

Is this the start of Sexit

[Iormlund]

@Zanza: Venezuela used to bankroll Podemos, Iglesias being a very vocal support of the regime - plus he has on numerous occasions put forward similar policies. She was forced to flee her country by Chaves and Co, so I can understand her aversion to a similar party governing  here.

The back to Germany thing is simply because that's a place where she would be able to land a visa+job easily (she's an engineer).

[PJL]

Is this the start of Sexit

I prefer Spexit, sounds better.

[Siege]

Spain ain't going to exit the EU. They need their sugar daddy to bankroll their social expenditure.

[clandestino]

So, I'm trying to follow the negotiations as much as I can, but the process seem rather dull to someone who's looking at it from the outside.

From what I gather (and trying to apply Portuguese party logic to this), it seems that no one wants to do a coalition with Rajoy, but there's more pressure than before from social groups to reach a solution. Iglesias/Podemos are still trying to understand what happened with their voters/2nd place, and the cracks may start to appear inside. PSOE is trying to transform this into some kind of victory, hoping that the general distaste of Rajoy from the other parties might catapult Sanchez as the leader of a different solution (wich failed before). And Ciudadanos is trying to play the role of bridge builders, but no one seems that interested to let them take the charge in the process.

Now, probably I'm completely wrong about that "analysis", but how probable is there to be a solution without the fall of Rajoy/Iglesias, maybe Sanchez? Is there any clarification to be had if you had another elections in a few months?

[The Larch]

So, I'm trying to follow the negotiations as much as I can, but the process seem rather dull to someone who's looking at it from the outside.

From what I gather (and trying to apply Portuguese party logic to this), it seems that no one wants to do a coalition with Rajoy, but there's more pressure than before from social groups to reach a solution. Iglesias/Podemos are still trying to understand what happened with their voters/2nd place, and the cracks may start to appear inside. PSOE is trying to transform this into some kind of victory, hoping that the general distaste of Rajoy from the other parties might catapult Sanchez as the leader of a different solution (wich failed before). And Ciudadanos is trying to play the role of bridge builders, but no one seems that interested to let them take the charge in the process.

Now, probably I'm completely wrong about that "analysis", but how probable is there to be a solution without the fall of Rajoy/Iglesias, maybe Sanchez? Is there any clarification to be had if you had another elections in a few months?

Rajoy/PP is toxic and nobody wants to get too close with him, but it's undeniable that they were the winners of the last elections and their very solid voter core will keep them in that position for the foreseeable future. Then again, the other parties seem to be completely at odds with each other, making a compromise between them very difficult. The new elections didn't really alter the balance of power, so everything is kinda back to the beginning, although this time they are all obliged to reach some kind of agreement, as the country can't stomach being without a government any longer. Your analysis is correct, broadly speaking, it only remains to be seen who, if anyone, has to fall on his sword for the parties to reach an agreement on a new government.

[Sheilbh]

Would PP be less toxic if Rajoy quit?

[clandestino]

Rajoy/PP is toxic and nobody wants to get too close with him, but it's undeniable that they were the winners of the last elections and their very solid voter core will keep them in that position for the foreseeable future. Then again, the other parties seem to be completely at odds with each other, making a compromise between them very difficult. The new elections didn't really alter the balance of power, so everything is kinda back to the beginning, although this time they are all obliged to reach some kind of agreement, as the country can't stomach being without a government any longer. Your analysis is correct, broadly speaking, it only remains to be seen who, if anyone, has to fall on his sword for the parties to reach an agreement on a new government.

From what I gather it seems that PP has already started their conversations with the other parties officially. Is there a rigid timeline for a solution? If there's none, what's the process again? Parliamentary rejection then to PSOE to try one? Is there any party congress already in the works in the near future that can change its leader?

[The Larch]

Would PP be less toxic if Rajoy quit?

It would make dealing with them more palatable to the other parties, for sure, but his grip on power internally is impressive and he's not the kind of person that would remove himself from the picture to make things happen. His career is built on stubborness, letting things solve themselves around him and playing the long game.

[The Larch]

Rajoy/PP is toxic and nobody wants to get too close with him, but it's undeniable that they were the winners of the last elections and their very solid voter core will keep them in that position for the foreseeable future. Then again, the other parties seem to be completely at odds with each other, making a compromise between them very difficult. The new elections didn't really alter the balance of power, so everything is kinda back to the beginning, although this time they are all obliged to reach some kind of agreement, as the country can't stomach being without a government any longer. Your analysis is correct, broadly speaking, it only remains to be seen who, if anyone, has to fall on his sword for the parties to reach an agreement on a new government.

From what I gather it seems that PP has already started their conversations with the other parties officially. Is there a rigid timeline for a solution? If there's none, what's the process again? Parliamentary rejection then to PSOE to try one? Is there any party congress already in the works in the near future that can change its leader?

Yes, conversation have started with the smaller parties, but they are basically irrelevant as only the other big 3 matter for this purposes. Podemos will never support them, Ciudadanos might if they throw them a few bones but are useless on their own, and PSOE is internally torn on the matter. At the end of the day it will all depend on what PSOE does.

[celedhring]

As for the process, first the new congress has to be put in place, which will happen in two weeks (July 19th). After that, the King will meet with all the party leaders and nominate a candidate, this will put us at the end of July. This candidate will obviously be Rajoy. Last time around Rajoy refused the nomination and it fell on Sánchez lap to try to get a coalition - which he failed to achieve. A debate and vote will be scheduled in congress, which hopefully will happen before August, but there's a decent chance it will get kicked to after the holidays if there isn't a deal in place. Once the vote is held, if the candidate fails to get appointed president there's a period of 2 months until a new election is called.

[celedhring]

Yes, conversation have started with the smaller parties, but they are basically irrelevant as only the other big 3 matter for this purposes. Podemos will never support them, Ciudadanos might if they throw them a few bones but are useless on their own, and PSOE is internally torn on the matter. At the end of the day it will all depend on what PSOE does.

Yeah, the math only works with PSOE, everything else is window-dressing. And they hate the guts of each other.

In Spanish politics "compromise" is usually understood as getting the other side to bend over and humiliate itself, without you moving and inch.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Yes, conversation have started with the smaller parties, but they are basically irrelevant as only the other big 3 matter for this purposes. Podemos will never support them, Ciudadanos might if they throw them a few bones but are useless on their own, and PSOE is internally torn on the matter. At the end of the day it will all depend on what PSOE does.

Yeah, the math only works with PSOE, everything else is window-dressing. And they hate the guts of each other.

In Spanish politics "compromise" is usually understood as getting the other side to bend over and humiliate itself, without you moving and inch.

what Spain needs is a few more general elections and new government after about 600 days. You'll also get the Longest-With-No-Government-Cup from Belgium Go Spain!

[The Larch]

Yes, conversation have started with the smaller parties, but they are basically irrelevant as only the other big 3 matter for this purposes. Podemos will never support them, Ciudadanos might if they throw them a few bones but are useless on their own, and PSOE is internally torn on the matter. At the end of the day it will all depend on what PSOE does.

Yeah, the math only works with PSOE, everything else is window-dressing. And they hate the guts of each other.

In Spanish politics "compromise" is usually understood as getting the other side to bend over and humiliate itself, without you moving and inch.

what Spain needs is a few more general elections and new government after about 600 days. You'll also get the Longest-With-No-Government-Cup from Belgium Go Spain!

Heh, I don't think we'll get to challenge that, there seems to be a pretty big consensus that this time a government has to be formed one way or the other.