Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah

I've said before but there are more Brits in New Zealand than Spain and the single biggest destination is still Australia. I don't think there's a family in the UK who doesn't know someone whose emigrated out there.

One of my nieces is engaged to a British guy she met in DC, he was here working in a financial firm and has a CFA. They actually moved to London two years ago (her company was willing to get her an internal transfer visa as they have London operations), if they move anywhere because of Brexit it'll be back to the U.S.

Seems like a non-telling anecdote but okay.

True. Also, you should kill yourself.

[garbon]

Yeah

I've said before but there are more Brits in New Zealand than Spain and the single biggest destination is still Australia. I don't think there's a family in the UK who doesn't know someone whose emigrated out there.

One of my nieces is engaged to a British guy she met in DC, he was here working in a financial firm and has a CFA. They actually moved to London two years ago (her company was willing to get her an internal transfer visa as they have London operations), if they move anywhere because of Brexit it'll be back to the U.S.

Seems like a non-telling anecdote but okay.

True. Also, you should kill yourself.

Nah, I'm chill.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Yeah

I've said before but there are more Brits in New Zealand than Spain and the single biggest destination is still Australia. I don't think there's a family in the UK who doesn't know someone whose emigrated out there.

That's cool.
One of my nieces is engaged to a British guy she met in DC, he was here working in a financial firm and has a CFA. They actually moved to London two years ago (her company was willing to get her an internal transfer visa as they have London operations), if they move anywhere because of Brexit it'll be back to the U.S.

Seems like a non-telling anecdote but okay.

True. Also, you should kill yourself.

Nah, I'm chill.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I really don't think that there is a major risk of skilled British people not being allowed to work abroad. If anything the risk is that a weaker economy might tempt even more skilled workers to move abroad. Meanwhile over 10% of the British workforce are foreigners of one sort or another, many of them skilled, throw them out or restrict foreign recruitment and there will be a dreadful labour shortage. If there are any restrictions introduced I would expect them to fall on less-skilled workers. We are left with the standard rich world conundrum, some groups are doing well under globalisation but others are doing poorly and it is difficult to devise policies that help them.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I really don't think that there is a major risk of skilled British people not being allowed to work abroad. If anything the risk is that a weaker economy might tempt even more skilled workers to move abroad. Meanwhile over 10% of the British workforce are foreigners of one sort or another, many of them skilled, throw them out or restrict foreign recruitment and there will be a dreadful labour shortage. If there are any restrictions introduced I would expect them to fall on less-skilled workers. We are left with the standard rich world conundrum, some groups are doing well under globalisation but others are doing poorly and it is difficult to devise policies that help them.

I'm not sure, in America at least we have a nation of origin quota system, which probably makes it relatively easy for Brits to come here because I don't think British to American immigration is super high. Whereas Indian to American immigration is super high, skilled Indians are currently in a 6-8 year queue to get in. But I think the commonwealth has some reduction in movement/work barriers, no? That might help with things like moving to Canada / NZ / AUS.

[Sheilbh]

I'm not sure, in America at least we have a nation of origin quota system, which probably makes it relatively easy for Brits to come here because I don't think British to American immigration is super high. Whereas Indian to American immigration is super high, skilled Indians are currently in a 6-8 year queue to get in. But I think the commonwealth has some reduction in movement/work barriers, no? That might help with things like moving to Canada / NZ / AUS.

I believe it's really easy to get a working holiday visa for two years both for us and them. After that you have to have your employer say they need you (and there's no-one in the EU who they can recruit in your place). I imagine that's the sort of system the government would eventually like for non-skilled migrants in the EU.

I think it's slightly more difficult for skilled migrants in that they need to have an employer lined up but if they do, their employer basically does the paperwork. And some areas recruit globally anyway especially the NHS.

I really don't think that there is a major risk of skilled British people not being allowed to work abroad. If anything the risk is that a weaker economy might tempt even more skilled workers to move abroad. Meanwhile over 10% of the British workforce are foreigners of one sort or another, many of them skilled, throw them out or restrict foreign recruitment and there will be a dreadful labour shortage. If there are any restrictions introduced I would expect them to fall on less-skilled workers. We are left with the standard rich world conundrum, some groups are doing well under globalisation but others are doing poorly and it is difficult to devise policies that help them.

Yeah I mean it is an odd characteristic of EU immigration that about 40-50% come here without a job (it's 10% for the rest of the world and mostly they're for family reasons). Very often those EU migrants inevitably end up in low-skilled work. I think some unscrupulous employer prefer migrants because we're a country where, on average, a company will be checked that it's paying the minimum wage ever 250 years and in the almost 20 years since we've had a minimum wage there have been under 10 prosecutions.

Plus there's the fake student visas (or legit visas, fake schools) that lure a lot of people especially from the subcontinent who expect to get some sort of higher education and end up working in kitchens. It's a big issue back from when I lived in the East End. Knew a couple of Bengali guys who were sharing a bedroom to cut costs, working ridiculous hours (admittedly at a decent employer) and doing, from what I could see, a not very legit accountancy course

Edit: Incidentally City AM had a piece on economic impact - still very little data as opposed to indicators. So far companies are saying confidence is down and there was a sharp fall in consumer footfall in June (though other indicators suggest its holding up). On the upside after a lull in new job advertisements in June they're now 8% up on this time of year 2015 and exporters to the US and emerging markets are apparently doing well. So still mixed indicators until we start getting some real information soon

[dps]

The posited scenario was Britain sliding into poverty.  If you are claiming that the whole EU is also doomed I think you are talking a global economic meltdown. 

Kind of my point.  The British economy isn't going to grow at exactly the same rate as that of France or Germany, whether or not Britain is in the EU, but Britain isn't going to slide into poverty unless there is a global economic crash.

[grumbler]

Negotiate.

There will be negotiations in any case.

Everybody loses in that scenario.

So, why does this make the EU position stronger, if it means that they lose?

The exact details of a more or less comprehensive free trade trade deal and possibly a framework for continued political cooperation in certain areas. Countries have interests and try to assert those in treaty negotiations. But you knew that already...so why ask?

The argument was made that the EU could simply out-wait the UK in the two-year period and I asked why that gave the EU the edge.  You answer that it doesn't, and then ask why I ask the question. 

I don't see why the pressure is on the UK.  I think Sheilbh's suggestion is an eminently sound one, and don't see why Tamas is arguing that this would sacrifice a "huge advantage" for the EU.  You agree with Tamas but don't explain why.  What is the huge advantage?

[grumbler]

That's probably accurate, but I'm not sure what will really hope "globalization's losers" anywhere in the West. Like what realistically helps a 50 year old out of work steel worker in Pittsburgh or Britain for that matter? Their best option is to get on the dole and wait for death, because most of these people are simple never going to acquire the skills necessary to succeed in the modern economy.

This is the question of our time:  how to manage the permanent unemployability of the former industrial workers (out of work not only due to globalization, but also mechanization) while not losing their children to the same problem.  It happened in farming already, but the numbers in industry are far larger.  It is a global problem, not a national one.

[Monoriu]

This is the question of our time:  how to manage the permanent unemployability of the former industrial workers (out of work not only due to globalization, but also mechanization) while not losing their children to the same problem.  It happened in farming already, but the numbers in industry are far larger.  It is a global problem, not a national one.

[fromtia]

I seek a new career in meat chopping.

[Monoriu]

I seek a new career in meat chopping.

Seriously, the pay is better than most low level office work, there is little fear of being replaced by computers, and people will continue to eat pork in the forseeable future. 

Downsides: it is a physically demanding and fairly unpleasant job.  One needs to stand in the market the whole day, and there may or may not be air-conditioning.  The meat stinks as it isn't chilled or frozen.  One needs to deal with pig blood, intestines, shit etc.  Sufficient body strength is necessary to wield a knife of that size. 

[alfred russel]

I seek a new career in meat chopping.

Too late. I haven't seen your picture, but I'm guessing I'd rather hire the cute asian lady give an opportunity to an ethnic minority female attempting to break into a historically male dominated profession. 

[Barrister]

I seek a new career in meat chopping.

Seriously, the pay is better than most low level office work, there is little fear of being replaced by computers, and people will continue to eat pork in the forseeable future. 

Downsides: it is a physically demanding and fairly unpleasant job.  One needs to stand in the market the whole day, and there may or may not be air-conditioning.  The meat stinks as it isn't chilled or frozen.  One needs to deal with pig blood, intestines, shit etc.  Sufficient body strength is necessary to wield a knife of that size.

Huh?  Meat packing is like the lowest of the low-end jobs in Canada at least.  It pays poorly, it's very dangerous, it stinks.  It's work typically done only by African immigrants these days (though back in the day... my parents grew up within smelling distance of the meat packing plants, and the low-end immigrants who did that kind of work were Ukrainians).

There's some small movement for "artisanal" butchers that doo all right, but being a meat packer is about the absolute last job I'd ever recommend for anyone.

[Zanza]

Negotiate.

There will be negotiations in any case.

Everybody loses in that scenario.

So, why does this make the EU position stronger, if it means that they lose?

The exact details of a more or less comprehensive free trade trade deal and possibly a framework for continued political cooperation in certain areas. Countries have interests and try to assert those in treaty negotiations. But you knew that already...so why ask?

The argument was made that the EU could simply out-wait the UK in the two-year period and I asked why that gave the EU the edge.  You answer that it doesn't, and then ask why I ask the question. 

I don't see why the pressure is on the UK.  I think Sheilbh's suggestion is an eminently sound one, and don't see why Tamas is arguing that this would sacrifice a "huge advantage" for the EU.  You agree with Tamas but don't explain why.  What is the huge advantage?

If you don't see why the pressure is on the UK it's clear that you also don't get the follow on argument that Tamas made.